Market update

MBS  -3/32 @ 104.26      10 Yr Treasury -8/32 @ 2.6410      Dow +74@ 15,203

 

It has been a volatile morning ahead of today's economic data. The government shutdown began today, but the impact will be felt very gradually in most areas. One immediate result is that some economic reports from the government will be delayed, including today's Construction Spending data. The status of Friday's important Employment report is uncertain at this time.

 

The Institute for Supply Management’s index unexpectedly rose to 56.2, the strongest since April 2011, from 55.7 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed today. Readings above 50 indicate growth. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 55.

An agency spokeswoman said Monday evening that the construction spending report wouldn’t be released 10 a.m. ET Tuesday in the event of a shutdown. The agency, in planning documents, previously said that all data releases would be canceled during a shutdown. In addition to construction spending, that could include the monthly report on factory orders, scheduled for release later this week.

 

Top of Form Treasuries
1-Oct-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.01% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.03% -0.01% 1-Year T-Bill 0.09% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.32% -0.01% 3-Year Note 0.63% 0.02% 5-Year Note 1.40% 0.02% 10-Year Note 2.63% 0.02% 30-Year Bond 3.71% 0.03%

 

Top of Form Major Indices
1-Oct-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.954% 0.000% 1-Month LIBOR 0.180% 0.001% 6-Month LIBOR 0.368% -0.001% 12-Month LIBOR 0.627% -0.002% MTA Index 0.149% -0.004% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Top of Form Mortgage Rates
1-Oct-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.37% -0.17% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.32% -0.18% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.63% -0.02% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.07% -0.04% Bottom of Form

 

 

APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.38%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.47%

5/1 ARM -      2.96%

7/1 ARM   -    3.27%

10/1-ARM -  3.79%

 

Economic Calendar

 

Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Sep 30	Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Sep)	55.7	54.0	53.0
	Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep)	12.8	5.0	5.0
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.02%
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.05%
Oct 01	Redbook index (YoY) (Sep 22)			3.6%
	Redbook index (MoM) (Sep 22)			-0.4%
	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)		52.8
	Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug)		0.4%	0.6%
	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)		55.0	55.7
	ISM Prices Paid (Sep)		55	54
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.015%
	Total Vehicle Sales (Sep)		16.00M	16.09M
Oct 02	MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 27)			5.5%
	ADP Employment Change (Sep)		177K	176K
	ISM New York index (Sep)			60.5
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Sep 27)			2.635M
	Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech
	Fed's Bernanke Speech
Oct 03	Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Sep)			50.462K
	Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)		315K	305K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 20)		2.810M	2.823M
	Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug)		0.7%	-2.4%
	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)		57.0	58.6
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Sep 27)			87B
	FOMC Member Williams speech
	Fed's Richard Fisher's speech
	FOMC Member Powell Speech
Oct 04	Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)		179K	169K
	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)		0.2%	0.2%
	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep)			2.2%
	Average Weekly Hours (Sep)		34.5	34.5
	Unemployment Rate (Sep)		7.3%	7.3%
	Fed's William Dudley speech
	FOMC Member Stein Speech
	Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech