Market update Fed report day today

MBS  +7/32@ 102.29   10 Yr Treasury +3/32 @ 2.4910     Dow +6@ 15,687

 

MBS have moved higher ahead of the release of the Fed statement this afternoon. September CPI rose 0.2% from August, matching the consensus, and it was just 1.2% higher than one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%, slightly below the consensus. Core CPI was 1.7% higher than one year ago. Like the PPI report yesterday, today's CPI data shows that inflation remains well below the Fed's target level of 2.0%. The ADP Employment forecast for private sector job gains in October came in at 130K, below the consensus of 140K. The monthly Employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, will be delayed until November 8 due to the government shutdown. No more economic data will be released today. The Fed statement will be released around 2:00 et. Investors will be looking for indications about the economic conditions which would cause the Fed to begin to taper. The results from the 7-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

 

Treasuries 30-Oct-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.01% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.03% -0.01% 1-Year T-Bill 0.10% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.31% 0.00% 3-Year Note 0.57% 0.00% 5-Year Note 1.28% 0.01% 10-Year Note 2.50% -0.01% 30-Year Bond 3.61% 0.00%       Major Indices 30-Oct-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.941% -0.015% 1-Month LIBOR 0.168% 0.000% 6-Month LIBOR 0.356% 0.001% 12-Month LIBOR 0.604% -0.001% MTA Index 0.144% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%         Mortgage Rates   30-Oct-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.24% -0.09% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.13% -0.15% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.60% -0.03% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.00% -0.07%

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.20%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.33%

5/1 ARM -      2.93%

7/1 ARM   -    3.23%

10/1-ARM -  3.74%

 

Economic Calendar

Event Actual Cons. Previous Oct 28 Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Capacity Utilization (Sep) 78.3% 78.0% 77.9%Revised from 77.8% Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) -5.6% 0.1% -1.6% Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Sep) -1.2% 5.8% Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Oct) 3.6 12.8 6-Month Bill Auction 0.07% 3-Month Bill Auction 0.035% 2-Year Note Auction 0.348% Oct 29 Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% Producer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 0.6% 1.4% Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.0% Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Sep) 1.2% 1.1% Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.2% Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Sep) 0.4% 0.1% Redbook index (MoM) (Oct 20) -1.5% Redbook index (YoY) (Oct 20) 2.9% S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Aug) 12.5% 12.4% Business Inventories (Aug) 0.3% 0.4% Consumer Confidence (Oct) 75.3 79.7 4-Week Bill Auction 0.03% 5-Year Note Auction 1.436% Monthly Budget Statement (Sep) $-147.9B Oct 30 MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 25) -0.6% ADP Employment Change (Oct) 150K 166K Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.1% Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.2% 1.5% Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Sep) 234.7 234.0 Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.1% Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Sep) 1.8% 1.8% Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Sep) 234.22 233.88 EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Oct 25) 5.246M 7-Year Note Auction 2.058% Fed Interest Rate Decision (Oct 30) 0.25% 0.25% Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (Oct) $45 $45B Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (Oct) $40 $40B Fed's Monetary Policy Statement Oct 31 Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 340K 350K Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 18) 2.865M 2.874M Treasury Sec Lew Speech Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Oct) 55.0 55.7 EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Oct 25) 87B Nov 01 Fed's Bullard speech Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.8 ISM Prices Paid (Oct) 55.0 56.5 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 55.5 56.2 Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech Fed's Lacker speech Total Vehicle Sales (Oct) 15.45M 15.21M