Michael Magnabouso updates for the week

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Michael Magnabousco Corporate Account Executive Vantage Production Phone: 800-963-1900 x 1538 Fax 800-237-5297 License: 732-526-1538 mmagnabousco@vantageproduction.com www.vantageproduction.com

In This Issue     Last Week in Review: After a several-week delay, the Jobs Report for September was released. How did home loan rates react? Forecast for the Week: A full week of reports is ahead, with news on consumer spending, wholesale and consumer inflation, housing, and manufacturing. Plus the Fed meets! View: Do you consider yourself lucky? The answer to that question may have more to do with your success than you may think. Learn why.   Last Week in Review     Better late than never. With the government shutdown over, the Jobs Report for September was finally released--and the markets and home loan rates reacted. The Labor Department reported that 148,000 new jobs were created in September, below the 183,000 expected. For July and August, the numbers were revised higher by a total of 9,000 jobs. The Labor Force Participation Rate, a measure of how many people are looking for work, was unchanged at 63.2 percent after falling in August to a 35-year low. The Unemployment Rate hit a 5-year low in September, falling to 7.2 percent. This was fueled to some degree by workers entering retirement and those Americans opting out of the workforce in a stagnant job market. And in the latest Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, claims fell by 12,000 in the latest week but still came in above expectations. The bottom line is that we are simply not seeing any meaningful improvement in the labor market. What did this mean for home loan rates? Remember that weak economic news normally causes investors to move their money into safe investments like Bonds. This includes Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. We saw that dynamic in the markets last week, as Bonds rallied after the weak Jobs Report was released, helping home loan rates reach their lowest levels in four months. Also still helping Bonds and home loan rates is the Fed's current Quantitative Easing program, in which the Fed has been purchasing $85 billion in Bonds and Treasuries each month to stimulate the economy and housing market. With key economic reports delayed due to the shutdown--and with the September Jobs data weaker than expected--there is not much chance the Fed will taper its purchases at its meeting this week. This should help keep home loan rates attractive through the remainder of 2013. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels and now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.   Forecast for the Week     This week's economic calendar is packed with a number of reports that will give investors a broad look at the U.S. economy. Right out of the gate on Monday, Pending Home Sales will be released. This will be followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, look for Retail Sales for September and Consumer Confidence for October. A double dose of inflation news begins Tuesday with the wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index follows on Wednesday. Wednesday also brings the ADP Employment Report, followed by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. Ending the week, manufacturing data from the Chicago PMI and the ISM Index will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. In addition, the next regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Policy Statement set to be released Wednesday. Investors will be looking for any mention of when the Fed may taper its Bond purchases, and this news could move the markets. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved after the weaker than expected Jobs Report for September, helping keep home loan rates attractive. With a potential volatile week ahead due to the Fed meeting and heavy economic report calendar, I'll be watching the news closely. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 25, 2013)   The Mortgage Market Guide View...       Smart Success 5 Secrets to Creating Better "Luck" "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." Seneca Richard Wiseman, psychologist and author of The Luck Factor, has spent years studying serendipity--also known as luck. In one experiment, Dr. Wiseman asked subjects, "Are you a lucky person?" Yes or no. Later on, he had each subject leaf through a newspaper to count the total number of photos inside and report their answer. Unbeknownst to the subjects, however, on the second page was a notice saying: "Stop counting--there are 43 photos in this newspaper." The result? Subjects who had answered "yes" to the luck question tended to see the notice, stop counting, and report the correct answer. Those who answered "no" tended to either miss the clue completely or dismiss it as a trick, continuing to count. Here is where Wiseman discovered a key principle of success: People who consider themselves lucky are simply more open to already existing opportunity. Here are five more success principles for creating luck in your life: Opportunity is where you look. Seeing opportunity is less about "right place, right time" than it is about keeping your eyes open. If you don't expect opportunity everywhere, you don't look for it, and never see it coming--or going. Try hard...but not too hard. While we all tend to associate unflinching determination with high-achievers, staying loose--even straying off course occasionally--attunes you to see more opportunities than does rigid focus. Set the goals, not the road. Opportunity favors a relaxed approach. Once you've clarified the outcome you want, be open to the countless paths to its achievement. What failure? Fear of making a mistake is a crippling habit. Flip your fear, and learn to see failure as a process of arrival--a learning opportunity in and of itself. Try something new much more often. Playing it safe all the time is a recipe for regrets. The serendipitous tend to be fearless about discovery--even if it's not the outcome they want to hear. So, instead of wondering what could have been, go and find out! Let your luck rub off on somebody! Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues. Economic Calendar for the Week of October 28 - November 01 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. October 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Sept NA -1.6% Moderate Tue. October 29 08:30 Retail Sales Sept -0.1% 0.2% HIGH Tue. October 29 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Sept 0.2% 0.1% HIGH Tue. October 29 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Sept 0.1% 0.0% Moderate Tue. October 29 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Sept 0.2% 0.3% Moderate Tue. October 29 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Aug NA 12.0% Moderate Tue. October 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct NA 79.7 Moderate Wed. October 30 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Oct NA 166K Moderate Wed. October 30 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sept 0.1% 0.1% HIGH Wed. October 30 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sept 0.1% 0.1% HIGH Wed. October 30 02:00 FOMC Meeting Oct NA 0.25% HIGH Thu. October 31 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/26 NA NA Moderate Thu. October 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Oct NA 55.7 HIGH Fri. November 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct NA 56.2 HIGH test test test     The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.   As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.     You received this email as a result of your ongoing business relationship with Michael Magnabousco. 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