Market update and reports

MBS  +1/32@ 102.20   10 Yr Treasury +1/32 @ 2.5180     Dow +55@ 15,624

 

It has been a quiet morning. September PPI fell 0.1% from August, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%, and it was just 0.3% higher than one year ago. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%, matching the consensus. Core PPI was 1.2% higher than one year ago. Today's PPI data suggests that there is little inflationary pressure in the pipeline. September Retail Sales fell 0.1% from August, below the consensus for an increase of 0.1%. Excluding autos, Retail Sales matched expectations with an increase of 0.4%. Retail Sales were consistent with the modest pace of economic growth seen in other recent economic reports. The August S&P/ Case-Shiller 20-city home price index revealed an increase of 12.8% from one year ago. The results from the 5-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et.

Confidence among U.S. consumers declined in October by the most since August 2011 as the budget impasse and debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington took a toll on outlooks. The Conference Board’s index slumped to 71.2 from a revised 80.2 last month, the New York-based private research group said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a decrease this month to 75. The October reading was the weakest in six months.

Treasuries
29-Oct-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.01% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.03% -0.01% 1-Year T-Bill 0.10% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.32% 0.02% 3-Year Note 0.58% 0.00% 5-Year Note 1.28% -0.01% 10-Year Note 2.53% 0.00% 30-Year Bond 3.63% 0.01%

 

Major Indices
29-Oct-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.941% -0.015% 1-Month LIBOR 0.168% 0.000% 6-Month LIBOR 0.355% 0.001% 12-Month LIBOR 0.605% -0.001% MTA Index 0.144% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Mortgage Rates
29-Oct-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.24% -0.09% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.13% -0.15% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.60% -0.03% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.00% -0.07%

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.20%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.33%

5/1 ARM -      2.93%

7/1 ARM   -    3.23%

10/1-ARM -  3.74%

 

Economic Calendar

Event Actual Cons. Previous Oct 28 Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Capacity Utilization (Sep) 78.3% 78.0% 77.9%Revised from 77.8% Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) -5.6% 0.1% -1.6% Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Sep) -1.2% 5.8% Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Oct) 3.6 12.8 6-Month Bill Auction 0.07% 3-Month Bill Auction 0.035% 2-Year Note Auction 0.348% Oct 29 Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% Producer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 0.6% 1.4% Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.0% Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Sep) 1.2% 1.1% Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.2% Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Sep) 0.4% 0.1% Redbook index (MoM) (Oct 20) -1.5% Redbook index (YoY) (Oct 20) 2.9% S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Aug) 12.5% 12.4% Business Inventories (Aug) 0.3% 0.4% Consumer Confidence (Oct) 75.3 79.7 4-Week Bill Auction 0.03% 5-Year Note Auction 1.436% Monthly Budget Statement (Sep) $-147.9B Oct 30 MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 25) -0.6% ADP Employment Change (Oct) 150K 166K Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.1% Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.2% 1.5% Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Sep) 234.7 234.0 Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.1% Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Sep) 1.8% 1.8% Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Sep) 234.22 233.88 EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Oct 25) 5.246M 7-Year Note Auction 2.058% Fed Interest Rate Decision (Oct 30) 0.25% 0.25% Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (Oct) $45 $45B Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (Oct) $40 $40B Fed's Monetary Policy Statement Oct 31 Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 340K 350K Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 18) 2.865M 2.874M Treasury Sec Lew Speech Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Oct) 55.0 55.7 EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Oct 25) 87B Nov 01 Fed's Bullard speech Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.8 ISM Prices Paid (Oct) 55.0 56.5 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 55.5 56.2 Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech Fed's Lacker speech Total Vehicle Sales (Oct) 15.45M 15.21M