Update on market rates off .25%

MBS  -1 & 3/32@ 100.276        10 Yr Treasury  -1 & 7/32 @ 2.747           Dow +75@ 15,669

 

This morning, a shockingly strong Employment report caused a large decline in MBS prices. Against a consensus forecast of 120K, the economy added 204K jobs in October, and the figures from the prior two months were revised higher by 60K. The Unemployment Rate rose from 7.2% to 7.3%, as expected. The headline figure is based on a survey which counts furloughed government workers as employed, while the Unemployment Rate is based on a different survey which counts them as unemployed. The participation rate dropped to 62.8%, the lowest level since 1978. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, fell slightly short of expectations. Separately, Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, matched the consensus for an increase of 0.1%, and it was just 1.2% higher than one year ago. Personal Income rose slightly more than expected.   The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index for this month dropped to 72, the weakest since December 2011, from 73.2 in October. Economists in a Bloomberg survey called for an increase to 74.5, according to the median estimate.   Treasuries 8-Nov-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.06% 0.01% 6-Month T-Bill 0.08% -0.01% 1-Year T-Bill 0.10% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.32% 0.04% 3-Year Note 0.60% 0.06% 5-Year Note 1.42% 0.11% 10-Year Note 2.74% 0.14% 30-Year Bond 3.83% 0.12%       Major Indices 8-Nov-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.957% 0.001% 1-Month LIBOR 0.169% 0.001% 6-Month LIBOR 0.355% 0.001% 12-Month LIBOR 0.595% -0.002% MTA Index 0.139% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%       Mortgage Rates   8-Nov-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.27% 0.07% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.16% 0.06% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.61% -0.03% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 2.96% 0.00%

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.16%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.30%

5/1 ARM -      2.93%

7/1 ARM   -    3.22%

10/1-ARM -  3.72%

 

Economic Calendar

Event Actual Cons. Previous Nov 04 ISM New York index (Oct) 59.3 53.6 Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) 1.7% 1.7% -0.1% Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) -0.1% -2.4% FOMC Member Powell Speech 6-Month Bill Auction 0.081% 3-Month Bill Auction 0.046% Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech Nov 05 Redbook index (MoM) (Oct 27) -1.3% Redbook index (YoY) (Oct 27) 3.6% IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Nov) 41.1 38.4 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 54.0 54.4 4-Week Bill Auction 0.056% Fed's Lacker speech FOMC Member Williams speech Nov 06 MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 1) 6.4% Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Oct) 40.289K CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Sep) 0.7% 0.7% EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Nov 1) 4.087M FOMC Member Pianalto Speech Nov 07 Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3) Preliminar 1.3% 0.6% Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) Preliminar 2.0% 2.5% Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 2) 332K 340K Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 2.881M Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q3) Preliminar 0.8% -0.1% Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q3) Preliminar 0.6% EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 1) 38B 10-Year Note Auction 30-Year Bond Auction 3.758% Consumer Credit Change (Sep) $11.50B $13.63B Nov 08 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% 0.1% Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Oct) 2.3% 2.1% Average Weekly Hours (Oct) 34.5 34.5 Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 130K 148K Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.1% Personal Income (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% 0.4% Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.2% Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.3% 1.2% Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.1% 1.2% Personal Spending (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% Unemployment Rate (Oct) 7.3% 7.2% Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov) Preliminar 74.3 73.2 Fed's Lockhart speech Fed's Bernanke Speech FOMC Member Williams speech