Market update and reports

MBS  +2/32@ 101.31        10 Yr Treasury  +3/32 @ 2.6350               Dow -21@ 15,724

 

It has been a volatile morning. The ECB cut rates today, and the ECB President made dovish comments during the press conference. With eurozone inflation at multi-year lows and unemployment at record highs, additional monetary stimulus makes sense, but the majority of investors did not expect a rate cut to take place today. MBS climbed to a high of +8/32 on the news. Later this morning, third quarter GDP rose to 2.8%, far above the consensus of 2.0%. Part of the outperformance was due to an unexpectedly large increase in inventories, though, which means that some growth was "pulled forward" from the fourth quarter. The extra goods produced during the third quarter which caused inventories to expand will reduce production needs in the fourth quarter. MBS lost their early gains after the stronger than expected data. Weekly Jobless Claims declined a little to 336K, which was close to expectations. No more economic data will be released today.

 

 

Treasuries
7-Nov-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.05% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.09% 0.01% 1-Year T-Bill 0.09% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.29% -0.01% 3-Year Note 0.53% -0.02% 5-Year Note 1.31% -0.02% 10-Year Note 2.63% -0.01% 30-Year Bond 3.76% -0.01%

 

Major Indices
7-Nov-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.957% 0.001% 1-Month LIBOR 0.168% -0.001% 6-Month LIBOR 0.354% 0.000% 12-Month LIBOR 0.597% 0.029% MTA Index 0.139% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Mortgage Rates
6-Nov-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.20% -0.04% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.10% -0.03% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.64% 0.04% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 2.96% -0.04%

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.16%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.30%

5/1 ARM -      2.93%

7/1 ARM   -    3.22%

10/1-ARM -  3.72%

 

Economic Calendar

Event Actual Cons. Previous Nov 04 ISM New York index (Oct) 59.3 53.6 Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) 1.7% 1.7% -0.1% Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) -0.1% -2.4% FOMC Member Powell Speech 6-Month Bill Auction 0.081% 3-Month Bill Auction 0.046% Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech Nov 05 Redbook index (MoM) (Oct 27) -1.3% Redbook index (YoY) (Oct 27) 3.6% IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Nov) 41.1 38.4 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 54.0 54.4 4-Week Bill Auction 0.056% Fed's Lacker speech FOMC Member Williams speech Nov 06 MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 1) 6.4% Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Oct) 40.289K CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Sep) 0.7% 0.7% EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Nov 1) 4.087M FOMC Member Pianalto Speech Nov 07 Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3) Preliminar 1.3% 0.6% Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) Preliminar 2.0% 2.5% Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 2) 332K 340K Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 2.881M Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q3) Preliminar 0.8% -0.1% Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q3) Preliminar 0.6% EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 1) 38B 10-Year Note Auction 30-Year Bond Auction 3.758% Consumer Credit Change (Sep) $11.50B $13.63B Nov 08 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% 0.1% Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Oct) 2.3% 2.1% Average Weekly Hours (Oct) 34.5 34.5 Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 130K 148K Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.1% Personal Income (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% 0.4% Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.2% Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.3% 1.2% Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.1% 1.2% Personal Spending (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% Unemployment Rate (Oct) 7.3% 7.2% Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov) Preliminar 74.3 73.2 Fed's Lockhart speech Fed's Bernanke Speech FOMC Member Williams speech