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Tuesday’s bond market has opened slight in negative territory following the
long weekend. The stock markets are flat also with the Dow down 8 points
and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which
should keep this morning’s mortgage rates very close to Friday’s morning
pricing. The bond market was closed yesterday in observance of the
Veteran’s Day holiday.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today that is likely
to affect bond trading or mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to
help influence bond and mortgage rates direction this afternoon and
tomorrow morning. If we see intra-day revisions to mortgage rates, it will
likely be a result of a noticeable move in the major stock indexes. If they
remain near current levels, mortgage rates will probably follow suit until
tomorrow.
Tomorrow doesn’t have any economic data scheduled for release that is worth
watching either. However, we do have the first of two Treasury auctions
that have a decent chance of affecting mortgage rates. 10-year Treasury
Notes will be sold tomorrow while 30-year Bonds will be auctioned Thursday.
The 10-year sale is the more important of the two for mortgage rates as it
will give us a better indication of demand for mortgage-related securities.
If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the
bond market move higher during afternoon trading tomorrow and/or Thursday.
But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international
investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities
and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would probably
result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.
All of this week’s economic data is set for release Thursday and Friday,
although none of it is considered to be highly important to the financial
or mortgage markets. Thursday’s data will give us the size of the U.S.
Trade Deficit and a measurement of worker productivity last quarter along
with the traditional weekly unemployment update. Friday has some minor manufacturing
sector data scheduled to be posted.
Overall, there isn’t a specific day that stands out as the most important
day of the week. None of the data is likely to lead to a sizable change in
mortgage rates, so if there are any significant moves in rates they will
probably come from other sources such as a significant stock rally or
sell-off. Tomorrow’s 10-year Note auction could be interesting and will
have a direct impact on rates, so by default we will label it as the most
important day. I never recommend ignoring the markets as momentum can pick
up or change direction unexpectedly at any time. However, I just don’t see
anything to be too concerned or optimistic about this week. Still,
maintaining some type of contact with your mortgage professional is prudent
if floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my
closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking
place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between
21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from
now...

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