Weekly market update

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Michael Magnabousco Corporate Account Executive Vantage Production Phone: 800-963-1900 x 1538 Fax 800-237-5297 License: 732-526-1538 mmagnabousco@vantageproduction.com www.vantageproduction.com

In This Issue     Last Week in Review: There was data on housing, inflation, consumer confidence and retail sales. Plus the Fed met! Forecast for the Week: The delayed Jobs Report for October will be released Friday, along with the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. View: Check out this powerful LinkedIn feature that can help you generate more business.   Last Week in Review     Trick or treat? Several key economic reports were released, plus the Fed met. But did the news spook the markets? Read on to learn more. Over in the housing sector, the Case Shiller 20-city Index rose to 12.8 percent in August on a year-over-year basis. From July to August there was a 1.3 percent increase. Overall this was a solid report, but note that double digit gains are not expected to continue as the uptick in rates have slowed price appreciation in many parts of the country. In addition, Pending Home Sales declined by more than expected in September. The drop was due in part to declining affordability, higher home loan rates, and consumer uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown. Also impacted by the shutdown, Consumer Confidence in October came in below expectations and well below the September reading. The Retail Sales Report for September showed that the shutdown also impacted consumer spending habits. What does this mean for home loan rates? Remember that the Fed has been purchasing $85 billion in Bonds and Treasuries each month to stimulate the economy and housing market via its Quantitative Easing program. The Fed has said that the continuation of these purchases remains dependent on economic data. And recent data shows that the housing sector recovery has slowed in recent months, plus Gross Domestic Product (the broadest measure of economic activity) and employment figures remain weak. In its Policy Statement after last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed said it has "decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases." This should help keep home loan rates attractive through the remainder of 2013. The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.   Forecast for the Week     The end of the week features several key reports that have the potential to move the markets. Economic data begins on Tuesday with the ISM Services Index, which measures the service sector of the U.S. economy. As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday and have been stubbornly hanging around the 340,000 range. Also on Thursday, we'll see the second read on 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product. Friday brings a full slate of reports, beginning with the much-anticipated Jobs Report for October, which includes the closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. Also releasing on Friday are the Consumer Sentiment Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds continue to trade near multi-month highs. This has helped home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds, reach lows not seen since June. The Jobs Report for October could have a big impact on the markets and I'll be watching all the news closely to see what happens. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 01, 2013)   The Mortgage Market Guide View...     Relationship Roundup 5 Ways to Use LinkedIn Polls for Bigger Business According to LinkedIn, the polling feature within Groups allows you to ask other members a question and then list up to five multiple-choice answers on which they can vote. If you've never heard of this incredibly useful LinkedIn feature--or ever wondered how you might use it to generate more engagement and thereby, more business--you can start today! Here are five types of LinkedIn polls and how to use them: Use results for marketing content. Articles, blogs, even other social media platforms have one thing in common--need of new material. And people like research! Share poll results, along with your takeaways, with your clients and followers. Tweet for new followers. If you manage a Group and want it to grow fast, then Tweet, Facebook, Tumblr, and Pinterest the daylights out of your poll findings--along with an invitation to subscribe to your Group for even more great information! Do research. Perform more targeted research with polls. Rather than get second hand generalized facts from the internet, you can get answers from Groups, in real time, leveraging its power. Make an offer they can't refuse. If you're stuck for a marketing offer and want to know exactly what customers will really go for, ask an appropriate LinkedIn Group first. (And just maybe, someone already has the key you've been searching for!) Get feedback. Want to roll out something new? Want to find out what people think about your big ideas? Poll your Group and get the scoop. Here's how to create your own poll in four easy steps: From the group's Discussions tab click the Poll icon (it looks like 3 horizontal lines) to the right of the Start a discussion... box. Type your question in the Ask a question box. Specify up to five answer choices, starting with the first answer in the first box. Additional boxes will appear after you enter your first choice. Click Share. Share this great feature with your team, clients, and colleagues. Economic Calendar for the Week of November 04 - November 08 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. November 05 10:00 ISM Services Index Oct NA   54.4 Moderate Thu. November 07 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 11/02 NA   NA Moderate Thu. November 07 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 NA   2.5% HIGH Thu. November 07 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 NA   0.6% HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   1.2% HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Sept NA   0.2% HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Personal Spending Sept NA   0.3% Low Fri. November 08 08:30 Personal Income Sept NA   0.4% Low Fri. November 08 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct NA   0.1% HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Average Work Week Oct NA   34.5 HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct NA   7.2% HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Oct NA   148K HIGH Fri. November 08 08:30 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Nov NA   73.2 Moderate test test test     The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.   As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.     You received this email as a result of your ongoing business relationship with Michael Magnabousco. 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