Market update and reports

MBS  +8/32 @ 101.246      10 Yr Treasury  +5/32 @ 2.620        Dow +13@ 15,980

 

Despite stronger than expected Retail Sales data, MBS have recovered their losses and moved higher. October Retail Sales rose 0.4% from September, above the consensus of 0.1%. Retail Sales ex-autos also exceeded expectations. October CPI fell 0.1% from September, slightly below the consensus, and it was just 1.0% higher than one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%, matching the consensus. Core CPI was 1.7% higher than one year ago. Today's CPI data shows that inflation remains well below the Fed's target level of 2.0.   The Minutes from the October 30 Fed Meeting will be released at 2:00 et. These detailed Minutes will provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials during the first meeting following the government shutdown.

 

Purchases of previously-owned U.S. homes fell in October to the lowest level in four months as limited supply and higher mortgage rates restrained momentum in the housing-market recovery.  Sales dropped 3.2 percent to a 5.12 million annual rate, the fewest since June, according to data released today by the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 5.14 million pace. The partial federal shutdown last month may have delayed some closings, the group also said.

 

Treasuries
20-Nov-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.08% 0.01% 6-Month T-Bill 0.10% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.13% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.29% 0.00% 3-Year Note 0.56% -0.02% 5-Year Note 1.34% -0.02% 10-Year Note 2.71% -0.01% 30-Year Bond 3.80% -0.01%

 

Major Indices
20-Nov-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.957% 0.001% 1-Month LIBOR 0.167% 0.000% 6-Month LIBOR 0.350% -0.002% 12-Month LIBOR 0.584% -0.001% MTA Index 0.139% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Mortgage Rates
20-Nov-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.35% 0.08% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.35% 0.19% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.61% 0.00% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.01% 0.05%

 

 

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.41%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.45%

5/1 ARM -     2.95%

7/1 ARM   -   3.29%

10/1-ARM -  3.82%

 

Economic Calendar

Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Nov 18	Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Sep)	$25.5B	$21.3B	$-9.8BRevised from $-8.9B
	Total Net TIC Flows (Sep)	$-106.8B		$-13.8BRevised from $-2.9B
	NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov)	54	55	54Revised from 55
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.095%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.075%
	Fed's William Dudley speech
	Philadelphia Fed's Plosser speech
	Fed's William Dudley speech
	Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech
Nov 19	Employment cost index (Q3)		0.5%	0.5%
	Treasury Sec Lew Speech
	Redbook index (YoY) (Nov 10)			3.3%
	Redbook index (MoM) (Nov 10)			-0.8%
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.06%
	Fed's Evans Speech
	Fed's Bernanke Speech
Nov 20	MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 15)			-0.5%
	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)		1.1%	1.2%
	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		0.0%	0.2%
	Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Oct)			234.59
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.1%
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Oct)		1.7%	1.7%
	Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Oct)		233.65	234.15
	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.1%
	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.4%
	Business Inventories (Sep)		0.4%	0.3%
	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)		5.15M	5.29M
	Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Oct)		-2.6%	-1.9%
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Nov 15)			2.64M
	Fed's Bullard speech
	FOMC Minutes
Nov 21	Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)		335K	339K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov 8)		2.863M	2.874M
	Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)		0.3%	0.3%
	Producer Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		-0.2%	-0.1%
	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.1%
	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Oct)		1.3%	1.2%
	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Preliminar		52.4	51.8
	American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report (Oct)
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 15)			20B
	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Nov)		15.5	19.8
	Fed's Lacker speech
	Fed's Bullard speech
Nov 22	Fed's George Speech
	Kansas Fed manufacturing activity (Nov)			14