Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending Friday’s
late selling. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up
17 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down
9/32, which coupled with Friday’s afternoon selling should put this
morning’s mortgage rates approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point
over Friday’s morning pricing.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today, so nothing to
prevent Friday’s negative tone from carrying into this morning’s trading.
The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of
monthly economic data, in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC
meeting. Even with nothing of relevance on this afternoon’s calendar, we
could see further pressure in bonds as the day progresses, especially if
stocks move higher from current levels.
The week’s first data comes Wednesday morning when July's Existing Home
Sales report is posted. We will also get the minutes from the most recent
FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon that have the potential to be a market
mover. There is relevant economic data being posted Thursday and Friday,
but none of those reports are considered to be highly important.
Overall, Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates
and tomorrow appears to be the best candidate for least important. Stocks
will probably be a contributing factor to bond movement several days with
no key economic data scheduled this week. Today’s bond losses have pushed
the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield to 2.85%. Unfortunately, I
don’t believe we have a good chance of seeing that reverse until we get
closer to 2.95%. Since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields this is
would be bad news for mortgage shoppers. Therefore, proceed cautiously if
still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if
my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was
taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place
between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60
days from now...
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