Wednesday, August 28, 2013

6 Gut checks pre open


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MarketWatch
 
Need to Know
AUGUST 28, 2013

6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell

By Shawn Langlois
 
Need to Know
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Good morning.

It always feels a bit dirty contemplating stocks when the whole world starts going to hell. But, hey, it's what we do, so why pretend differently? Get your snorkel and dive down in the muck. Besides, we can't talk about twerking all week.

Markets retreated on Tuesday, due to all sorts of unsettling factors, none more pressing than the mess in Syria. The general consensus seems to be that if a strike on the country is as quick and "clean" as possible, markets will likely get right back in the green. Boom go the missiles, boom comes the rebound. Sounds almost festive. It's never that simple or easy, but investors would love it if it were.

"The standard market playbook for this type of geopolitical environment would be a continuation of the equity weakness and the strength of the crude, gold and Treasurys up until the strike occurs," said Mike O'Rourke of Jones Trading in his nightly update. "Then once missiles are airborne, the moves will be ready for a reversal. Equities will be ready for a bounce as gold and bonds pull back."

Anything to avoid the kind of stagnant stock market we saw from April 1999 to November 2012. As Eddy Elfenbein, the man behind the Crossing Wall Street blog , pointed out in a tweet: That was 13.5 long years of absolutely no gains.

Stocks aside, the saber-rattling is already having an impact on the global economy, according to the Sober Look blogger who goes by the name of Walter Kurtz. "An environment such as this is not conducive to investing in growth and hiring," he said. "While the situation in Syria is tragic, the U.S. economy simply cannot afford a massive blow that would result from this conflict."

Investors don't seem to be buying into the idea of a quick resolution this morning as stocks are retreating from the Far East to New York.

Key market gauges: Gold  moved up to pre-summer highs on Tuesday, pushed higher by those looking to take some risk off the table. It's hanging in there today. Syria is also giving oil  a nice boost on top of the near 3% rally from the day before.

Stocks endured another beatdown in Asia, where troubled markets in the Philippines  and Indonesia saw losses grow to more than 7% each this week. Japan's Nikkei  fared better, but not by much . Europe  is also reversing early while futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are holding tight to breakeven. Then there's India's rupee , which just took its biggest one-day hit  in two decades.

Earnings: Mining equipment maker Joy Global said that orders fell 36%, though it also announced a $1 billion share-buyback program. Also on tap are retailers Chico's and Express , as well as Brown-Forman , which produces Jack Daniel's whiskey and Finlandia vodka.

The buzz: Apple  is about to open its eighth store in Japan , and its first retail outlet in Tokyo since 2005, according to Bloomberg. While no stores will be opening in Iran anytime soon, more iPhones could be on the way  there.

Avago  shares are getting bought up early after the company said late Tuesday that it expects its sales numbers to top Wall Street targets.

Burger King  still leads the trending list on Market IQ, thanks in no small part to its new French Fry Burger. Yes. A burger with french fries in it instead of on the side. How viral can you get? Also, here's the case for going long Burger King and shorting McDonald's .

The chart of the day: Josh Brown figures it's a good time to revisit what he describes as "my favorite chart on Earth." And he's right, it's a beauty. The chart speaks for itself, but the gist of it is that war is good for stocks. "The aftermath of a wartime, big government-spending era is inflation, and inflation -- when kept in check -- leads to this.  500% return genuine bull markets," he wrote more than two years ago .
The call of the day: Silver  is due for a double , says Profit Confidential's Mike Lombardi. "Yes, prices for the white precious metal are down for the year, but after breaking below $19.00 an ounce, they quickly recovered and found support," he said, adding that they always bounce back from there. Lombardi said that gold would need to hit $2,800 an ounce for bullion prices to double. Silver would only need to hit $46 an ounce, and it was hovering around that level in 2011.

Random reads: "Twerk" is a no-brainer, but "food baby"? Srsly? That's one derpy descriptor I've never used to describe my overeating. Thanks Oxford Dictionary .

Aww, speaking of twerk, JT keeps it real and sticks up for his fellow Disney alum .

I loved the book and the movie. I also love not dying alone in the woods for no reason .

We should just send Alec Baldwin over to set Syria straight.

Going to Kyrgystan? Stay the heck away from the barbecued marmot .

From the complete opposite of my bucket list ... the only thing that could make Burning Man sound way more awesome than it already does is if everybody starts handing out business cards .

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