Friday, August 23, 2013

6 Gut checks


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MarketWatch
 
Need to Know
AUGUST 23, 2013

6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell

By Shawn Langlois
 
Need to Know
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Reuters
Good morning.

With any luck, some squirrel will hook us up with another Nasdaq malfunction today. Not only did Thursday's shutdown trigger a convivial atmosphere  across cyberspace, but stocks actually finished nicely higher, to stick a fork in a pretty dismal stretch.

For those of you still bemoaning Nasdaq-ageddon, get a little perspective. Computers crash, people die, and Madonna was always going to end up looking like this . That's life. Accept it. I doubt the buy-and-hold masses even noticed. After all, $1 invested in 1824 is now worth almost $5 million  -- though that whole "people die" thing might get in the way.

The drama is over for now, and today is looking like what one might expect from a late-summer Friday. So we're left to focus on Jackson Hole and housing numbers.

Key market gauges: The Nikkei  rallied more than 2% to pace a mostly upbeat showing in Asia . Europe has turned higher, while futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are also just barely in the black.

The economy: We'll catch a glimpse of how well the housing market is holding up during these recent gains in mortgage rates when the government posts new-home-sales numbers at 10 a.m. Eastern. Economists are expecting the number to have fallen to a seasonally adjusted rate of 485,000 in July, from a rate of 497,000 in June. If new-home sales did reach a rate of 485,000 in July, they'd be up 31% from the year-earlier period. Read: Spotlight on the economy .

The buzz: The Jackson Hole boondoggle kicks off tonight, and while some of the biggest names won't be in attendance, there's still an agenda packed with a "who's who" assortment  of economic-power brokers. When these types get together, there's bound to be a headline or two. And a few nap takers. The party really gets going on Friday morning, during the whimsical "Natural Rate of Interest, Financial Crises and the Zero Lower Bound" session. Check out our streaming coverage .

Dismal outlooks from Pandora  and Aeropostale  have shares of both companies deep in the red, premarket. Same thing with Autodesk .

Needless to say, the Nasdaq OMX Group  ticker saw a spike in comments on StockTwits in the past 24 hours. The stock closed down 3.5%. Bank of America , Organovo  and Aruba Networks are also trending.

The chart of the day: Joe Weisenthal might just be using some of that Business Insider hyperbole that we all find so adorable. Or he might be on to something when he says "this chart might just be everything." It shows the increase in U.S. interest rates vs. an index of the dollar vs. emerging market currencies. Weisenthal says there are plenty of stories to glean from this simple illustration. One of them is that the rising interest rates are pulling money out of emerging markets and slamming their currencies. Another is that the "economic pendulum" is swinging to the U.S. and Europe and away from emerging markets. "Either way, this is the dominant story in markets these days, and the world is watching both lines," he wrote.
SocGen
The call of the day: After a smashing 30% rally to start the year, the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF  has given it all back. And J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog says it's time to short Ho Chi Minh . "With a lot of the Asia Pacific stocks taking a beating lately, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the next one to get hit hard," he wrote. Parets said the July lows of around $18 were tested four times this week before it finally broke down. "Vietnam should stay under pressure," he said.
All Star Charts
Random reads: Detroit unleashes the hounds . About 50,000 of them.

The Nasdaq's halt was a small price to pay for video goodness like this .

Goldman Sachs  banker arrested for rape . Not the financial kind.

If this law were enacted in California, I'd be bankrupt by the end of the month.

Ben Affleck is tapped as the new Batman . And the world stands still.

You read for a part, you feel good about it, you feel confident, then they cast Ben Affleck.

— Richard Dreyfuss (@RichardDreyfuss) August 23, 2013

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