Rates off a little ahead of the Fed announcement

MBS  -7/32 @ 102.22      10 Yr Treasury -11/32 @ 2.8940       Dow -37 @ 15492

 

The Housing Starts data had little impact this morning ahead of the release of the Fed statement at 2:00 et. August Housing Starts rose 1% from July to an annual rate of 891K, below the consensus of 910K. The shortfall was entirely due to a decline in multi-family units, while single-family starts increased. Building Permits told a similar story. No more economic data will be released today. The critical Fed statement is scheduled to be released at 2:00 et. That will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chief Bernanke at 2:30 et. The main questions are whether the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchases, how much they will scale back, how will it be divided between Treasuries and MBS, and how will they determine future reductions. In addition, the Fed will release its economic forecasts for 2016. Big moves in MBS prices are likely this afternoon. It's likely to be a volatile session due to the Fed meeting.

 

Top of Form Treasuries
18-Sep-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.01% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.04% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.12% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.40% 0.02% 3-Year Note 0.81% 0.02% 5-Year Note 1.64% 0.03% 10-Year Note 2.87% 0.02% 30-Year Bond 3.85% 0.01%

 

Top of Form Major Indices
18-Sep-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.954% 0.000% 1-Month LIBOR 0.180% -0.001% 6-Month LIBOR 0.376% 0.000% 12-Month LIBOR 0.650% -0.002% MTA Index 0.149% -0.004% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Top of Form Mortgage Rates
18-Sep-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.59% 0.00% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.57% 0.00% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.67% -0.04% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.22% -0.06%

 

 

 

APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.64%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.69%

5/1 ARM -      3.03%

7/1 ARM   -    3.36%

10/1-ARM -  3.87%

 

Economic Calendar

 

Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Sep 16	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)	6.29	9.20	8.24
	Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
	Capacity Utilization (Aug)	77.8%	77.8%	77.6%
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.035%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.02%
Sep 17	Treasury Sec Lew Speech
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Aug)		1.8%	1.7%
	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug)		0.2%	0.2%
	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)		1.6%	2.0%
	Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Aug)			234.004
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Aug)		0.2%	0.2%
	Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Aug)		234.050	233.596
	Redbook index (MoM) (Sep 8)			0.3%
	Redbook index (YoY) (Sep 8)			4.6%
	Total Net TIC Flows (Jul)			$-19B
	Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)		$-45.3B	$-66.9B
	NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep)		59	59
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.01%
	52-week Bill auction			0.135%
Sep 18	MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 13)			-13.5%
	Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)		0.950M	0.954MRevised from 0.943M
	Housing Starts (MoM) (Aug)		0.917M	0.896M
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Sep 13)			-0.219M
	Fed Interest Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
	Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (Sep)		$40B
	Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (Sep)		$45B
	FOMC Economic Projections
	Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
Sep 19	Current Account (Q2)		$-97.0B	$-106.1B
	Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)		330K	292K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)		2.900M	2.871M
	American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report (Aug)
	Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Aug)		-2.6%	6.5%
	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)		5.25M	5.39M
	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep)		10.0	9.3
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Sep 13)			65B
	CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Aug)		0.6%	0.6%
Sep 20	Fed's George Speech
	Fed's Bullard speech
	Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech