Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly with no relevant economic data
set for release today. The stock markets are fairly calm with the Dow up
a mere 5 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently
up 4/32, which with strength late Friday should improve this morning’s
mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to
Friday’s morning pricing.
There is nothing scheduled for release today that is likely to affect
bond trading or mortgage rates. However, the rest of the week brings us
seven pieces of economic data that are relevant to the bond and mortgage
markets. There is at least one report scheduled each of the four
remaining days and five over the last two days of the week.
The key data starts tomorrow with the release of July's Retail Sales
report by the Commerce Department. This data is very important to the
financial and mortgage markets because it measures consumer spending at
the retail establishments. Since consumer spending makes up over
two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair
amount of movement in the markets. A smaller than expected increase would
indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought,
pointing towards slower economic growth. This is good news for the bond
market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes
long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to
investors. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.2% in
sales.
Overall, I am expecting tomorrow or Thursday to be the most important day
of the week. Tomorrow’s Retail Sales report and Thursday's CPI are the
two single most influential reports scheduled this week. Since consumer
level inflation is not expected to be an immediate threat, I am leaning
towards tomorrow as the day that we will see the most movement in mortgage
rates. With so much going on this week, I strongly recommend maintaining
contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest
rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if
my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was
taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking
place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over
60 days from now...
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