7 Gut Checks pre-open

7 gut checks before the stock market opens

By Barbara Kollmeyer

 

Good morning.

That three-day losing run for stocks could end today, and that's good news if you're not one of the three winning Powerball  players.

And who do we have to thank for that? China. Some pretty strong trade data has given Asian markets, Europe stocks, stock futures and copper a lift, and attention is focused there, given there isn't much else to focus on Thursday outside of weekly jobless claims.

While some say China data remains unreliable, Goldman Sachs's Yu Song says that good news on the trade data could "alleviate the concerns policy makers have on slowing growth, at least for now."

Slumps? They can happen to anyone. Take Seabreeze's Doug Kass, for example, who says the last few weeks haven't been fun for bears like him. (Though his latest barb about Twitter  caused some fury).

Help is on the way, Doug. From Minyanville comes the five-step recovery program: 1) Face up to those losses and vow to push through; 2) Define that slump -- are you missing major moves or opportunities?; 3) Don't disengage from markets, stay involved, but avoid those who can't seem to make a wrong call. They'll bring you down; 4) Take some breaks -- naps, exercise -- get your level-headedness back; 5) Look back at better times and try to recapture those moments. Most important: "Show up every day and grind it out with that underlining goal of merely getting through."

And here's another earnings-season reflection. From Bespoke Investments , which lays out the stocks that have had the best and worst one-day reactions to earnings reports. The winners are: Federal-Mogul  with a one-day bump of 30.62%, followed closely by Facebook , which gained 29.61%.  Questcor , Digital Generation  and Active Network  round out the top five. The bottom line? All these stocks did something right and got rewarded. As for worst one-day reaction, consumer-discretionary and technology stocks fan the list.

Key market gauges: Most Asian stocks  rebounded after heavy prior-day losses, thanks to that China trade data. But the Nikkei again got no love, due to that persistently strong yen. Read how the weak yen bet is losing its luster .

European stocks  are also getting some China-data love, while Dow industrial  and S&P 500  futures are on the upswing.

The economy: Weekly jobless claims showed a rise of 5,000 to 333,000, but the level of claims stayed near a five-year low.  Also, how many jobs are needed for the economy to return to prerecession levels? This chart has the answer.

China posted a 5.1% rise in exports in July, after a 3.1% fall in June. Analysts were looking for a 2.8% rise, so the numbers were out of the park. But imports leapt 10.9% last month, after June's drop of 0.7%, while a 1.3% increase was expected. Oh, and think it's all about the Chinese, when it comes to rigging data? The Big Picture has plenty to say about U.S. manipulation.

Also in Asia, the BoJ concluded its latest meeting by keeping monetary policy unchanged by a unanimous vote, as was widely expected.

Earnings: A handful of names out Thursday, including Priceline , which is expected to report second-quarter earnings of $9.38 a share on revenue of $1.65 billion.

T-Mobile US  is seen posting EPS of 12 cents.

AMC Networks  is estimated to report a profit of 78 cents.

It's also same-store sales day. Costco  was first up as usual, posting a 4% rise in July comparable sales.

The buzz: Groupon   is set to burst out of the gate this am, with shares up 24% in premarket. The daily deals and e-commerce company posted better-than-expected sales and named Eric Lefkofsky as CEO. Can it keep up the pace? Read on .

Also looking revved up, Tesla is up 16% in premarket after the company blew past analysts ' estimates for the second quarter. Here's a blow-by-blow  of the conference call.

Green Mountain Coffee  was off 3% in premarket after revenue fell short of  hopes . Ibankcoin also offers up this techie chart showing how Green Mountain shares are headed for an even bigger fall.

And Nestle  . The Swiss company has one of those odd-looking tickers for U.S. investors, but it's still a widely-held non-U.S. stock. But the world's biggest food maker says it's facing the same challenges as competitors, as organic growth took a hit . Shares are off over 2% in Zurich.

Chart of the day:From the Business Insider story of the same headline, "What the rest of America can learn from California's strict gun laws." The state with the toughest laws in the country has seen a 56% drop in the death rate from guns in the past 20 years. A pictures speaks a thousand words:

Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence

Call of the day: Pimco's Bill Gross, who manages the Pimco Total Return Fund  has a fresh outlook , entitled "Bond Wars." Once again telling war stories (His July update regaled us with his own personal battleship story, the point being bond investors shouldn't 'man overboard.'), Gross talks about the Somme-like defeat seen for bonds in the past few months. There will "always be a place for the bond market 'army,' such as those big institutional players, says the king of metaphors. What bond investors and managers need to do now is focus on the  'carry,' or the total yield of a portfolio, and less on the maturity/duration extension, which is Pimco's focus, he says.

"If prospects are mediocre, portfolios should be overweight carry. If prospects are very bright, they should again be underweight bond carry," says Gross. "Will PIMCO charge the machine-gun-laden front lines with consistently overweighted durational bond strategies? No, but we might try to outflank them if yields rise too much like today."

Carry on.

Random reads: Sorry, baby, that smartphone  can't teach you to read.

Lobster is suddenly affordable .

Finally, we are told what tapering really looks like . Also check out our excellent slideshow roundup of who -- Fedwise --has been saying what about tapering.

Hecklers? How about hard labor at the Jikdong Youth Coal Mine. Life as a stand-up comic in North Korea.

And guess who's trending on Twitter:

Across the world thousands of people are waking up to the sad story of Beyonce's hair. Stay strong. #PrayForB #WeaveForB2013

— Scouse Bird Problems (@ScouseBirdProbs) August 8, 2013

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