6 Gut checks pre open

Need to Know AUGUST 20, 2013 6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Shutterstock Good morning. Mondays suck enough without having to watch the market drop for a fourth straight session. We haven't seen that happen since last Christmas break, when both the Dow and the S&P slipped for five in a row. History suggests there won't be an autumnal rebound, either. September is, on average, the worst month for the market. In fact, it's the only one to show a loss  dating back to 1926. Ron Surz -- PPCA president and HedgeWorld contributor -- blames the spotty track record on "the fact that investors are done with their vacations, so they're back at their computers trading, and mucking things up." Playing the spike in interest rates could afford one such mucking-up opportunity. After all, in the grand scheme, it's not even much of a spike. Lance Roberts of Streettalk Advisors put it in perspective , saying the 10-year Treasury yield could jump to 3.5% and still be in line with the long-term downtrend. The uptick isn't something to be dismissed, however. "While the current increase in interest rates hasn't created any issues just yet, it certainly doesn't mean that the pot won't boil over the minute we quit paying attention to it," Roberts warned. Well, better start paying attention. That pot's starting to simmer. The taper is coming, the rupee is spiraling, and stocks are getting scalded from Indonesia to Wall Street. Key market gauges: The Nikkei  shed almost 3% to weigh on Asian markets, while Indonesia's JSX  extended yesterday's plunge by dropping another 3%. European stocks  aren't doing much better while futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are turning around, though from an earlier loss, after some upbeat retailer results. The Indian rupee  failed to find its footing this morning, after enduring its biggest decline in two years on Monday amid failing efforts to prop the currency. J.P. Morgan downgraded the country's stocks to neutral. Earnings: A trio of retailers is helping lift stock futures, after some disappointing numbers out of the sector last week. Home Depot shares are up after its results. J.C. Penney  and Best Buy shares rose in premarket on results as well.  Also check out how hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass is betting big  on a J.C. Penney comeback. dshort.com The call of the day: It may be tempting, but don't go bottom fishing in India, warns the jet-setting Mark Mobius. The chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, who oversees $53 billion, said the day will come when the country's equities will be attractive, but that day isn't now. The same is true for the aforementioned rupee, which faces "significant declines" unless controls are imposed to limit capital outflows, he said in a CNBC interview earlier this morning. Read what he had to say about emerging markets to MarketWatch's Laura Mandaro last week. Random reads: Apparently, Hong Kong's inflation problem is expected to get worse  during this year's Hungry Ghost festival. Wonder how the U.S. gets a reputation for random acts of gun violence ? Dubai mulls world's tallest tower as 45% of the other buildings remain vacant. A report that happens to coincide with the final episodes of "Breaking Bad" shows that as much as 50% of North Korea is seriously addicted to meth . Speaking of everyone's favorite meth-dealing TV character, here's the Guardian having a chat with the series creator . Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111