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Need to Know
AUGUST 14, 2013
6 gut checks before the stock
market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
Good
morning.
Some of the world's richest men are such Twitter teases. Larry Ellison
sashays in and lobs a jab at rival SAP, before going radio silent. Warren
Buffett tweets that he's "in the house" but it quickly becomes
evident that he so isn't. Merely fleeting flirtations.
Then there's Carl Icahn , the sharp-tongued billionaire
whose godforsaken "crybaby in the schoolyard" soundbite takedown
of Bill Ackman has become a fixture on CNBC. He may not be quite as wealthy
(just #26 on the Forbes rich list), but after the goods he delivered on
Tuesday, his tweets are clearly must-see material. A few weeks ago, he
tweet-badgered Dell, calling Mike "a major liability that can easily
be removed." Now Icahn says he's betting big on Apple and buzzing in
the ear of Tim Cook.
And with that, Apple's stock is most definitely back in play. Busting
through its 200-day moving average for the first
time this year is one thing, but make no mistake, it's the lunar phases that really portend a
sustained rally.
Investing by the light of the moon might not be your thing, but you'd
better figure out something if you want to play in what's quickly turning
into a stockpicker's market. The average correlation of 10 S&P sectors
to the broad market hasn't been this low for years, according to
ConvergEx's Nick Colas. Specifically, tech stock correlations to the
S&P dropped to 58% from nearly lockstep at 92% last month.
Key market gauges: A storm was brewing in Hong Kong
this morning. An actual, non-metaphoric storm. One that was strong
enough to keep that stock market closed. The Nikkei was open, though,
and it jumped 1.3%. Markets are mixed in Europe, with the major indexes
waffling around breakeven. Futures on the Dow and the S&P
nudged lower.
The economy: . U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in
July, as prices fell for energy, didn't change for food, and rose for goods
such as pharmaceuticals. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose
0.1%. Overall that was a more subdued reading than was expected, with
economists penciling in a 0.3% overall rise in PPI and a 0.2% increase in
teh core measure. Also on tap, the New York Fed will report its
second-quarter household debt report, and in the afternoon, the St. Louis
Fed's James Bullard will take the mic. Read: Spotlight on the economy .
Data showed the euro zone has emerged from recession, though that hasn't
really helped stocks there any. But analysts say don't break out the bunting yet . But if
you've got Europe greenshoots on the brain, here are ten stocks that could be worth a look.
Earnings: A few stragglers for Wednesday. Tractor-maker Deere
& Co. got a slight lift premarket after posting a rise in profit
and sales. Department-store retailer Macy's Inc. fell 3% after it cut
its outlook in the wake of disappointing sales. Cisco is also due to
report.
The buzz: Apple may be the undisputed star of the
show, but BlackBerry's seesaw session put the stock in runner-up
position on the StockTwits trending list. Others include
Cytokinetics , Cisco and AT&T .
Back to the Apple hoedown: Larry Ellison isn't the only one taking
potshots. The Cracked Market blog spent an inordinate amount of space echoing the Oracle chief's sentiment .
"Apple has great products, if we still lived in 2010," it said.
"No one uses Siri, iMaps was a disaster, the iPad Mini was simply
playing catchup to Android, and iTV's been a dud since it came out in
2006." Then, the clincher: "If you go to Best Buy, the Apple
table is the most boring section of computer/phone department."
Most of the big names have already reported this quarter, but there's still
a few streaming in. Cree and SeaWorld are both off by
double-digits premarket after some nasty results. ExOne is reeling
some 15% after the 3-D printing company freaked out investors with its full-year outlook .
Brocade is a different story, with the stock up 17% on its quarterly
numbers.
The top story on Google's business pages is the Justice Department's unexpected move
to block the merger of American Airlines and US Airways .
The chart of the day: Monday's "call of the day"
took the road less traveled by predicting a tapering boost for the stock
market. This chart from Scott Krisiloff of Avondale illustrates why
what's happened in Europe should ease fears that some sort of equity
Armageddon is on the way. "The ECB's balance sheet has shrunk by
almost a third in the last year, yet European equities have risen by nearly
40% over the same time frame," he wrote. "Has QE simply been a
giant red herring?"
The
call of the day: International Paper
makes, you guessed it, paper. Sexy as footed onesies pajamas. But
Seeking Alpha contributor Ray Merola sees 20% upside for the stock over the next
year. In fact, a move from $48 to $66 isn't out of the question as we enter
the back stretch of the current business cycle, where the materials sector
tends to shine, according to the 30-year energy-industry veteran.
Random reads: Freebasing with a pet lion. But there's
also a dark side to being raised by two drug addicts
with unlimited wealth.
"One father grabbed a metal pole to use as a weapon." Fun
at Legoland Windsor .
"Baba Booey", "mashed potatoes" and the stupid things people yell on the tee
box.
"Amateurs plagiarize, artists steal." Here are some examples of Disney swipes .
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening
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