Wednesday, August 14, 2013

6 Gut checks pre open


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MarketWatch
 
Need to Know
AUGUST 14, 2013

6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell

By Shawn Langlois
 
Need to Know
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Good morning.

Some of the world's richest men are such Twitter teases. Larry Ellison sashays in and lobs a jab at rival SAP, before going radio silent. Warren Buffett tweets that he's "in the house" but it quickly becomes evident that he so isn't. Merely fleeting flirtations.

Then there's Carl Icahn , the sharp-tongued billionaire whose godforsaken "crybaby in the schoolyard" soundbite takedown of Bill Ackman has become a fixture on CNBC. He may not be quite as wealthy (just #26 on the Forbes rich list), but after the goods he delivered on Tuesday, his tweets are clearly must-see material. A few weeks ago, he tweet-badgered Dell, calling Mike "a major liability that can easily be removed." Now Icahn says he's betting big on Apple and buzzing in the ear of Tim Cook.

And with that, Apple's stock is most definitely back in play. Busting through its 200-day moving average for the first time this year is one thing, but make no mistake, it's the lunar phases that really portend a sustained rally.

Investing by the light of the moon might not be your thing, but you'd better figure out something if you want to play in what's quickly turning into a stockpicker's market. The average correlation of 10 S&P sectors to the broad market hasn't been this low for years, according to ConvergEx's Nick Colas. Specifically, tech stock correlations to the S&P dropped to 58% from nearly lockstep at 92% last month.

Key market gauges: A storm was brewing in Hong Kong  this morning. An actual, non-metaphoric storm. One that was strong enough to keep that stock market closed. The Nikkei  was open, though, and it jumped 1.3%. Markets are mixed in Europe, with the major indexes waffling around breakeven. Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  nudged lower.

The economy: . U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in July, as prices fell for energy, didn't change for food, and rose for goods such as pharmaceuticals. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. Overall that was a more subdued reading than was expected, with economists penciling in a 0.3% overall rise in PPI and a 0.2% increase in teh core measure. Also on tap, the New York Fed will report its second-quarter household debt report, and in the afternoon, the St. Louis Fed's James Bullard will take the mic. Read: Spotlight on the economy .

Data showed the euro zone has emerged from recession, though that hasn't really helped stocks there any. But analysts say don't break out the bunting yet . But if you've got Europe greenshoots on the brain, here are ten stocks that could be worth a look.

Earnings: A few stragglers for Wednesday. Tractor-maker Deere & Co.  got a slight lift premarket after posting a rise in profit and sales. Department-store retailer Macy's Inc.  fell 3% after it cut its outlook in the wake of disappointing sales. Cisco  is also due to report.

The buzz: Apple  may be the undisputed star of the show, but BlackBerry's  seesaw session put the stock in runner-up position on the StockTwits trending list. Others include Cytokinetics , Cisco  and AT&T .

Back to the Apple hoedown: Larry Ellison isn't the only one taking potshots. The Cracked Market blog spent an inordinate amount of space echoing the Oracle chief's sentiment . "Apple has great products, if we still lived in 2010," it said. "No one uses Siri, iMaps was a disaster, the iPad Mini was simply playing catchup to Android, and iTV's been a dud since it came out in 2006." Then, the clincher: "If you go to Best Buy, the Apple table is the most boring section of computer/phone department."

Most of the big names have already reported this quarter, but there's still a few streaming in. Cree  and SeaWorld  are both off by double-digits premarket after some nasty results. ExOne  is reeling some 15% after the 3-D printing company freaked out investors with its full-year outlook .

Brocade  is a different story, with the stock up 17% on its quarterly numbers.

The top story on Google's business pages is the Justice Department's unexpected move to block the merger of American Airlines  and US Airways .

The chart of the day: Monday's "call of the day" took the road less traveled by predicting a tapering boost for the stock market. This chart from Scott Krisiloff of Avondale illustrates why what's happened in Europe should ease fears that some sort of equity Armageddon is on the way. "The ECB's balance sheet has shrunk by almost a third in the last year, yet European equities have risen by nearly 40% over the same time frame," he wrote. "Has QE simply been a giant red herring?"
Avondale
The call of the day: International Paper  makes, you guessed it, paper. Sexy as footed onesies pajamas. But Seeking Alpha contributor Ray Merola sees 20% upside for the stock over the next year. In fact, a move from $48 to $66 isn't out of the question as we enter the back stretch of the current business cycle, where the materials sector tends to shine, according to the 30-year energy-industry veteran.

Random reads: Freebasing with a pet lion. But there's also a dark side to being raised by two drug addicts with unlimited wealth.

"One father grabbed a metal pole to use as a weapon." Fun at Legoland Windsor .

"Baba Booey", "mashed potatoes" and the stupid things people yell on the tee box.

"Amateurs plagiarize, artists steal." Here are some examples of Disney swipes .

Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter.
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