6 Gut checks pre open

Need to Know AUGUST 13, 2013 6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Getty Images Good morning. First, Elon Musk says he can change the world for the cost of about 150,000 Oprah handbags, and now Larry Ellison is on the verge of drawing some serious backlash from the maniacally protective Apple fan club. Yes, Wall Street may be on summer autopilot, but that isn't stopping tech tastemakers from making some noise this week. More on both below. Tech aside, retail-sales numbers will set the early trading tone, and they're expected to show more evidence of a healing U.S. consumer. Of course, the pervasive taper talk is never too far below the surface. This month, September, December, never ... whenever the flow of cash begins to ease, stocks could be poised for a big rally, according to Jim Paulsen (see the call of the day). Or not. The market's next major will be to the south, Jack Bouroudjian told CNBC. While it will be triggered by the Fed, it's the changing of the guard , not the tapering, that will provide the catalyst, he explained. "Twice in my investment lifetime, we have changed the Fed chairman. We changed it when (Paul) Volcker changed to (Alan) Greenspan (in 1987) and when Greenspan changed to Bernanke (in 2006). Both times were followed by a serious correction in the market," he said. Bouroudjian, barring some big economic improvements, is looking out for a 10% correction between now and October. "It's time to be very defensive," he warned. Investors aren't listening in the early stages. Stocks are up nicely around the world. Key market gauges: The Nikkei  jumped 2.6%, capitalizing on a weakened yen and a report the government is considering a cut in corporate taxes. The rest of Asia  finished higher as well. Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are setting up for some gains of their own, but have pulled back in the wake of retail sales data that fell a little short. Europe  is also seeing green. The economy: Retail sales data came in short of expectations, up 0.2% in July against forecasts calling for a rise of 0.3%, but sales rose an upwardly revised 0.6% in June, versus a prior estimate of a 0.4% gain. Also on the docket are a trio of reports on small-business sentiment, import prices and business inventories. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will give a speech later in the day. Read: Spotlight on the economy . The buzz:  Is the end of the soap opera nigh? J.C. Penney , which seems to be hogging the corporate airwaves these days, says shareholder Bill Ackman has resigned from the board . Pershing Capital's Ackman ignited a public spat a few days ago with the struggling retailer over the appointment of a new CEO. Shares of the retailer are up 1% in premarket trading. Oracle's outspoken sailor man Larry Ellison says we know what Apple  looks like without Jobs, and it's not great . His whole interview with Charlie Rose airs later on "CBS This Morning." Speaking of Apple , longs are still brimming over a report that the new iPhone will be released on September 10 . The stock rose almost 3% on Monday, and it's on the move north again this morning. Meanwhile, BlackBerry  enjoyed a double-digit bounce after it said it could be putting itself up for sale . Shares are up fractionally in early trading. Elon Musk over at Tesla is back in the news with details of his "Hyperloop" plan. Traders were mostly unimpressed with his concept of a 35-minute shuttle between San Francisco and LA. The stock fell almost 4% Monday, but it is inching higher premarket. Check out these 10 glimpses into his starry-eyed proposal. Elon Musk's Hyperloop promises travel between L.A. & San Francisco in 30 minutes. Congratulations L.A.! I'm sorry, San Francisco. — Matthew O'Brien (@MattOB34) July 18, 2013 The chart of the day: Hedge funds have been catching a lot of flak lately, but nobody who's got millions stashed away with Dan Loeb is complaining. His Third Point fund has been busting out with annual gains of about 17% on average over the past 13 years or so. But you don't have to be some dreadlocked trust-funder to hitch a ride on this guy. Mebane Faber posted a chart showing how mirroring his investments through his 13F filings has also paid off handsomely, trouncing the S&P. Mebane Faber The call of the day: The end of QE will be a boon for stocks. So says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital, from the-road-less-traveled corner of Wall Street. In fact, he points out that the generous money flow isn't even the reason markets have rallied as hard as they have. "The driving force behind the stock market run since last year has not been the Fed's QE operations, nor earnings growth and certainly not falling bond yields. Rather, it is 'confidence' which has been driving PE multiples higher," he wrote. Once the economy proves it can stand on its own two feet, an "upward valuation reassessment" could be at hand. Read more about that call. Random reads: The Dallas Cowboys have the most fired-up fans in the NFL. The first-ever defacing of a butter cow . Reportedly. "This is the End"-style sinkhole swallows a building in Florida. Here's hoping the rest of the Sunshine State isn't too far behind. Behold, one of the most-expensive products  ever on Amazon. Can't find an eco-friendly balm to soothe your pain after a particularly intense spanking session? Fret not, Divinextases has what you need . Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. 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