6 Gut Checks before the market opens

Need to Know AUGUST 26, 2013 6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Reuters Good morning. We've seen this kind of thing before, but still, wow, what a grind... referring, of course, to the stock market in August, not Miley Cyrus during last night's Video Music Awards . We struggled through a couple down weeks earlier this month before stocks recovered last week. The move wasn't exactly convincing, and investors are left to twerk in fear of where this market is headed.  Which, more often than not, means: ding dong, time to buy. There's more to the bull case than a contrarian stance, though. Stocks, at least on a global scale, aren't as pricy as some headlines would have you believe, according to BlackRock. Analysts there point out two reasons you shouldn't be scared away from equities . First, it's not all about U.S. stocks. The true values are in Europe and across emerging markets. Second, where else are you going to put your money? The bear bent along with still-reasonable valuations could, indeed, be rocket fuel for stocks, but there's the matter of margin debt and how it's careening toward record highs. This doesn't bode well, as you can tell by the chart below. Add that to the pile of investor worries out there. Key market gauges: Asia stocks  enjoyed a mostly strong start to the week, with the Shanghai Composite jumping nearly 2% after some upbeat comments about growth in China. Europe is up in the early going while futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are also backing up the thesis that stocks are ready to rise. The economy: Durable goods orders for July dropped 7.3%, which was beyond the 4.9% that was expected. However, stripping out the volatile transportation sector, the drop was a much smaller 0.6%. Clearly the news wasn't too upsetting though, as futures barely budged on the news. The buzz: Amgen  is snapping up Onyx Pharmaceuticals  for $10.5 billion. Shares of Onyx are, obviously, moving higher premarket. Shares of Qihoo 360 Technology  is all fired up in premarket after the Chinese Internet company posted an eye-popping 372% jump in profit. Microsoft  has been trending all weekend, and for good reason, obviously. Vanity Fair takes a deep dive into how Ballmer led Microsoft astray . Apparently, he got pushed out with a bit more urgency than the company portrayed. Here's why the New Yorker says he's the "tech industry's Mikhail Gorbachev."  (Come to the New Yorker for the Ballmer, stay for the expose on lobster prices ). The Donald is the master of buzz, even when he's on the wrong end of a lawsuit . Not saying Trump University was legit, but if you look at Donald Trump and say, "I want that man to educate me," it's on you a little, too. — Jason Roeder (@jasonroeder) August 25, 2013 Legendary Wall Street pioneer Muriel Siebert died over the weekend . The chart of the day: Another great illustration from Chris Kimble showing what happens when margin debt reaches this level. In two words: Bad stuff. In several more words: Over the past 13 years, margin debt has reached these levels twice. In both instances, the stock market was chopped in half. "If history is a guide, it does suggest that stocks are above average in risk at this time!" Kimble wrote. KimbleCharting The call of day: We're about to embark on a period of steady growth, says Bill McBride of the Calculated Risk blog. Not your typical wide-eyed optimist, McBride cites growth in housing, the end of government layoffs, loosening of household credit and a sustained accommodative stance from the Fed for his "very optimistic" view . "I said that looking forward I was the most optimistic since the '90s. And things are only getting better. The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades." Quoting Timbuk3 ? That can only mean one thing: Bill might even be older than me. Random reads: Billionaires are, mostly, serial entrepreneurs . Of robot overlords and the race against the machines . Fisker, from $1.4 billion to $25 million . San Francisco to Los Angeles in 30 minutes? Pfft. That's the best you can do, Elon? How about New York to Beijing in 2 hours ? Save a couple minutes (days?) for this hefty Marissa Mayer story . When the signs say don't swim in the Mary River , you best pay attention. Not since Ben Affleck was named the new Batman has Twitter been this fired up . Will Smith's family during the Miley Cyrus VMAs performance. WTF? pic.twitter.com/sX9Dg19sXT — Dan Howell (@Daanisnotonfire) August 26, 2013 My name is Miley Cyrus and you're watching disney channel pic.twitter.com/uA37vb5cq7 — Grumpy Cat (@ExtraGrumpyCat) August 26, 2013 Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111