More on the rate market and reports expected this week

MBS  +10/32 @ 100.16    10 Yr Treasury  +9/32 @ 2.5520             Dow  +9 @ 15,473

 

MBS began the session with moderate losses, and reached an early low of -10/32, but weaker than expected Retail Sales data caused MBS to rally. June Retail Sales rose just 0.4% from May, below the consensus for an increase of 0.8%. Retail Sales ex-Autos also came in well short of expectations. The Empire State index climbed to 9.5, above the consensus of 5.0. Second quarter GDP growth in China was 7.5%, which was very close to the consensus forecast. Fitch cut the sovereign credit rating of France. No more economic data will be released today.

 

Top of Form Treasuries
15-Jul-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.04% 0.01% 6-Month T-Bill 0.07% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.11% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.34% -0.01% 3-Year Note 0.66% -0.02% 5-Year Note 1.45% 0.03% 10-Year Note 2.62% 0.04% 30-Year Bond 3.66% 0.03%

 

Top of Form Major Indices
15-Jul-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.951% -0.019% 1-Month LIBOR 0.192% 0.000% 6-Month LIBOR 0.404% 0.002% 12-Month LIBOR 0.690% 0.004% MTA Index 0.159% -0.004% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Top of Form Mortgage Rates
15-Jul-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.53% 0.14% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.51% 0.22% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.66% 0.00% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.26% 0.16%

 

 

APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.58%

5/1 ARM -      3.07%

7/1 ARM   -    3.39%

10/1-ARM -  3.89%

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

	Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Jul 15	Fed's Tarullo speech
	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)	9.46	5.00	7.84
	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.4%	0.8%	0.5%Revised from 0.6%
	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Jun)	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%
	Business Inventories (May)	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%Revised from 0.3%
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.075%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.045%
Jul 16	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)		1.5%	1.4%
	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun)		0.3%	0.1%
	Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Jun)			233.27
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Jun)		0.2%	0.2%
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jun)		1.6%	1.7%
	Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Jun)			232.95
	Redbook index (YoY) (Jul 7)			3.6%
	Redbook index (MoM) (Jul 7)			-0.3%
	Net Long-Term TIC Flows (May)		$14.3B	$-37.3B
	Total Net TIC Flows (May)			$12.7B
	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.3%	0.0%
	Capacity Utilization (Jun)		77.7%	77.6%
	NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul)		52	52
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.025%
Jul 17	MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 12)			-4%
	Building Permits (MoM) (Jun)		1.000M	0.974M
	Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun)		0.960M	0.914M
	Fed's Bernanke Speech
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jul 12)			-9.874M
	FOMC Member Raskin Speech
	Fed's Beige Book
Jul 18	Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 6)			2.977M
	Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 12)		349K	360K
	American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report (Jun)
	CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Jun)		0.2%	0.1%
	Fed's Bernanke Speech
	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jul)		8.0	12.5
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change			82B
Jul 19	G20 Meeting
Jul 20	G20 Meeting