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Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, but not by enough to
affect mortgage rates. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the
Dow down 44 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is
currently down 6/32, however, due to a decent closing Friday we should see
little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.
There is nothing set for release today that is of relevance to mortgage
rates. However, the rest of the week is packed with highly influential
economic data and other events that can significantly impact mortgage rates
movement. There are seven economic reports that may affect mortgage pricing
in addition to another FOMC meeting that certainly has the potential to
cause chaos in the financial and mortgage markets. There is important
economic data scheduled for release each of the remaining four days, so
there is a strong likelihood of seeing noticeable mortgage rate movement
several days, with more than including an intra-day revision.
The data kicks off tomorrow when the Conference Board posts their Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI) for July at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures
consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If
consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment
situations, they are apt to make large purchases in the near future. This
is important because consumer spending makes up such a large portion of our
economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning that consumers
were less confident than thought and likely will delay making a large
personal purchase, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop
tomorrow morning. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 81.6,
which would be a slightly higher reading than June's 81.4 and indicate
consumers are a little more comfortable with their finances than they were
last month.
Wednesday morning has two reports scheduled (2nd quarter initial GDP
reading and Employee Productivity & Costs) and the adjournment of the
FOMC meeting that starts tomorrow. The GDP reading is an extremely
important report that will be looked at by analysts and traders both here
and internationally. Thursday and Friday also have very important releases
(ISM manufacturing index and July’s Employment report respectively), so
look for plenty of activity the middle and latter days of the week.
Overall, I am expecting to see an extremely active week for the financial
markets and mortgage rates. I think that the most important day is either
going to be Wednesday due to the GDP release and FOMC adjournment or Friday
with July’s employment numbers being posted. The least important day is
today since nothing of importance is scheduled. I suspect we will see
plenty of movement in not only mortgage rates, but also the financial
markets in general this week. Therefore, if still floating an interest
rate, I would definitely maintain constant contact with my mortgage
professional as the next several days are going to be quite interesting.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my
closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking
place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between
21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from
now...
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