The news keeps getting better for the U.S. housing market. Prices are up,
construction is up, and new-home sales are up. These are significant changes on
the margin that are likely to have positive ripple effects throughout the
economy.
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Both measures of housing prices show a 12% gain over the past year. Higher
mortgage rates are likely to temper -- but not derail -- further price
increases. Higher mortgage interest rates are a logical response to stronger
demand for housing.
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On an inflation-adjusted basis, prices have bounced off their lows of early
2012. This marks almost four years of price consolidation after three years of
catastrophic declines. There is every reason to believe that we have seen the
worst, and that the future for housing looks bright.
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The supply of homes for sales is at very low levels, after being very high
for most of the past seven years. There is no longer a glut of homes for sale;
the market is now faced with a relative shortage of homes for sale, although
there are signs that the inventory of homes for sale is rising. Rising prices are
restoring equity to millions of homeowners that had been underwater.
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May new-home sales beat expectations (476K vs. 460K), and are up 75% from
their lows. That's in line with the 90% increase in housing starts since the
2009 lows. It's reasonable to expect further gains, since construction is still
very low from an historical perspective.
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