7 Gut checks pre open

Need to Know JULY 17, 2013 7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Good morning. From the Fed chairman to a deep lineup of Wall Street cheeses, a veritable Woodstock of market-moving performances is upon us. Bernanke is the undisputed headliner, and investors again are at his beneficent mercy. The good news is that stocks have made it through these congressional testimonies unscathed lately, averaging a 0.7% gain over the two-day periods dating back to 2005. The potential bad news is that this time around, it's different. To taper or not to taper. That's it. Everything else is just noise or fodder to be manipulated into supporting one view or another (more on this below). While Bernanke sets the tone for the broader market, specific stocks will be subject to pitches from some serious investing ballers , who take the stage at the Delivering Alpha conference later this morning. Jim Chanos will be there following up on last year's bold "value trap" call on Hewlett-Packard . Whoops. So will John Paulson, presumably with some tips on what to do with gold . Throw in a truckload of earnings, and a combustible session lies ahead. Key market gauges: Stocks around the world are definitely in wait-and-see mode. Asia  was mostly mixed, with the Nikkei  taking a peek into positive territory. Europe  couldn't hold earlier gains, after the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates and its asset-purchase program unchanged, opting not to increase easing . Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are down a little bit but expect some swings in the coming hours. The economy: The Fed's proposed timetable for tapering is not set in stone , according to Bernanke. "I emphasize that, because our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments, they are by no means on a preset course," he said in prepared remarks. Bernanke repeated his guidance from mid-June that the Fed anticipates it will be appropriate to begin to moderate the pace of purchases "later this year," and end them "around midyear." Questions will begin raining down on him at 10 a.m. More than anything else, this will set the trading tone for the day, if not for the next few days. Separately, the Department of Commerce said housing starts fell 9.9% in June to 836,000, the lowest level since August last year . Earnings: On the heels of Goldman's results, Bank of America posted better-than-expected second-quarter numbers , and investors are responding by running the stock up early. Elsewhere, highlights from the technology sector include Intel  and eBay . American Express  and Sandisk  will also chime in from the crowded earnings calendar. The chart of the day:"Beware the Humphrey-Hawkish!" Mid-July and the Fed testimonial that accompanies it have marked some dramatic turns on the S&P 500 over the years, according to the Macro Man blog, and we could see similar action this week.  "No spooky planetary alignment involved, just Al or BB doing their stuff to sound stimulatory or restraining," the blogger wrote. Seeing as it's been "full steam ahead for equities," a reversal would be the logical conclusion. "Against that though," he said, "we really can't see BB being anything other than 'balanced' and not wishing to rock the boat." There's an extreme version of this in which Bernanke says something to create a "headline storm along the lines of Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' speech." The Macro Man says that while there would be no long-term damage, "stocks would dump in a display of short-term fireworks. Macro Man The buzz: Tesla  shares were crushed Tuesday, and they're under pressure again premarket. Goldman painted a worse-case scenario for the stock to be trading at $58. No gloom from Tesla, though. The company is "confident" it will double Model S production  by next year. Read: Stocks to watch . Other top-trending tickers on StockTwits include Yahoo , which disappointed on the top line  with its second-quarter results, and Goldman , with its mostly-upbeat report  leading to a big surge in cyber-attention. The call of the day: Dunkin' Donuts , Green Mountain Coffee  and Starbucks have all logged big gains this year but could get pinched if coffee prices keep bouncing, according to iBankCoin's ChessNWine. "Be it correlation or causation in the form of cheaper input costs, the coffee ETN  has traded inversely, by and large, to the major coffee players, namely Starbucks," he wrote. After being smashed this year, coffee just touched on its highest level in over a month and, per this chart, could be poised for a "sharp reversal higher." ChessNWine Random reads: Wayne, we need you.. ya know, in case Robin van Persie gets injured or something. Hate to hear of any discord at Old Trafford. But football is a ways off, let's focus on the British Open at Muirfield this week. Rolling Stone's "The Bomber" cover is drawing some nasty feedback . Bank error in your favor. Collect $92,233,720,368,547,800 . Driverless cars to hit U.K. streets by the end of the year. "Bleeding orifices, brain hemorrhaging and kidney failure" await you at Snake Island . Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. 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