Sept. 1, 2013, 9:00 a.m. EDT
U.S. jobs report could dispel economic haze
Steady gain in hiring might trigger Fed taper, ease growth worries
By Jeffry Bartash,
MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The closely scrutinized U.S. jobs
report will take on extra gravity this week after a bevy of signs implying that
economic growth has throttled back.
If the net rise in new jobs in August nearly equals or exceeds 192,000 — the
monthly average in 2013 — investors will view it as evidence that the economy
continues to expands at a 2% clip. More jobs means more spending and more mild
growth. Perhaps just as important, another increase in hiring of that size could spur the Federal Reserve to scale back its massive economic-stimulus program starting later in September.
MarketWatch
consensus
| date | report | Consensus | previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 3 | ISM manufacturing | 54.1% | 55.5% |
| Sept. 3 | Construction spending | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| Sept. 4 | Trade deficit | -$39.0 bln | -$34.2 bln |
| Sept. 4 | Motor vehicle sales | 15.8 mln | 15.7 mln |
| Sept. 5 | ADP employment | 185,000 | 200,000 |
| Sept. 5 | ISM nonmanufacturing | 55.0% | 56.0% |
| Sept. 5 | Factory orders | -3.5% | 1.5% |
| Sept. 6 | Nonfarm payrolls | 170,000 | 162,000 |
| Sept. 6 | Unemployment rate | 7.4% | 7.4% |
The most probable outcome is another increase in the 150,000 to 200,000 range. Economists polled by MarketWatch project a 165,000 bump, up a touch from a preliminary 162,000 increase in July.
“By and large, it’s likely to be steady as she goes,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist of Pierpont Securities. “Businesses are not particularly aggressive and are being cautious. They have been for quite some time.”
The August employment report, released Friday, is the headline attraction in a holiday-shortened week.
Also on the docket: August auto sales, the Fed’s Beige Book economic summary and snapshots of the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors — the source of employment for most Americans.
What goes up ...
U.S. manufacturers, whose business cooled off last year, appeared to see sharp improvement in midsummer, based on regional and national surveys of industry executives. Yet hard economic numbers have failed to capture such a similarly strong advance.For that reason economists expect the national survey of manufacturers to retreat a bit in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s index is projected to fall to 54.0% from a 13-month peak of 55.5% in July.
ECONOMY AND POLITICS | @MKTWEconomics
See the cities where home-price growth is cooling the most
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See the cities where home-price growth is cooling the most
• Consumers slightly more upbeat in August
• Short-term deals on budget, debt ceiling now more likely: analyst
Any number over 50 signals expansion, so a reading of 54 would still be quite robust. Yet the history of the ISM index suggests an even sharper decline could be in order given the volatile nature of what’s basically an opinion poll. Large increases have often been followed by big drops.
“I think manufacturing is doing reasonably well,” said Stanley, “ but I look for a pullback.” The index will be released Tuesday morning.
Growth in employment is one the the biggest factors in economic growth, yet many corporations layoff American workers as they export jobs offshore, even while their profits are increasing.
ReplyDeleteWhat is needed is a corporation income tax rate based on hiring practices. Corporations that are investing their profits in domestic growth and increasing their American payrolls year by year should pay a lower income tax rate than corporations that are not hiring. That is what I advocate in my blog and my book, Job Creation Tax Plan.
What this would accomplish is to give corporations a greater incentive to hire and empower growing companies to grow faster because they will have more after-tax profits to invest in their own growth, provided that growth includes hiring more American workers.
Hamilton some great points here with corporation's and jobs being at the forefront of a healthy economy. When we are not pro-active in the area of supporting hiring and strength for employers we are not growing
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