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MBS  +20/32 @ 103.09      10 Yr Treasury +24/32 @ 2.797         Dow +161 @ 15,537

 

For quite a while, there have been two leading candidates to replace Fed Chief Bernanke after his term ends. One of the candidates, Lawrence Summers, unexpectedly withdrew from consideration this weekend. Summers was viewed as the more hawkish of the two. He was favored by the Obama administration, but he would have faced a difficult confirmation process. His withdrawal leaves Janet Yellen, the current Fed Vice-Chair, as the clear favorite to replace Bernanke. She is expected to continue the Fed's loose monetary policy, which caused a rally in both stocks and bonds this morning. Today's economic data had little impact. August Industrial Production came in close to expectations with an increase of 0.4% from July. Empire State dropped to 6.3, below the consensus of 9.0. No more economic data will be released today.

 

Top of Form Treasuries  16-Sep-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.01% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.02% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.09% -0.01% 2-Year Note 0.39% -0.05% 3-Year Note 0.78% -0.10% 5-Year Note 1.56% -0.13% 10-Year Note 2.79% -0.10% 30-Year Bond 3.79% -0.04%   Top of Form Major Indices  16-Sep-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.954% 0.000% 1-Month LIBOR 0.179% -0.001% 6-Month LIBOR 0.380% -0.003% 12-Month LIBOR 0.656% -0.008% MTA Index 0.149% -0.004% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%   Top of Form Mortgage Rates    16-Sep-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.59% 0.00% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.57% 0.00% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.67% -0.04% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 3.22% -0.06% Bottom of Form

 

 

APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.64%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.69%

5/1 ARM -      3.03%

7/1 ARM   -    3.36%

10/1-ARM -  3.87%

 

Economic Calendar

 

Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Sep 16	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)	6.29	9.20	8.24
	Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
	Capacity Utilization (Aug)	77.8%	77.8%	77.6%
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.035%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.02%
Sep 17	Treasury Sec Lew Speech
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Aug)		1.8%	1.7%
	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug)		0.2%	0.2%
	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)		1.6%	2.0%
	Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Aug)			234.004
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Aug)		0.2%	0.2%
	Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Aug)		234.050	233.596
	Redbook index (MoM) (Sep 8)			0.3%
	Redbook index (YoY) (Sep 8)			4.6%
	Total Net TIC Flows (Jul)			$-19B
	Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)		$-45.3B	$-66.9B
	NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep)		59	59
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.01%
	52-week Bill auction			0.135%
Sep 18	MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 13)			-13.5%
	Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)		0.950M	0.954MRevised from 0.943M
	Housing Starts (MoM) (Aug)		0.917M	0.896M
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Sep 13)			-0.219M
	Fed Interest Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
	Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (Sep)		$40B
	Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (Sep)		$45B
	FOMC Economic Projections
	Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
Sep 19	Current Account (Q2)		$-97.0B	$-106.1B
	Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)		330K	292K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)		2.900M	2.871M
	American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report (Aug)
	Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Aug)		-2.6%	6.5%
	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)		5.25M	5.39M
	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep)		10.0	9.3
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Sep 13)			65B
	CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Aug)		0.6%	0.6%
Sep 20	Fed's George Speech
	Fed's Bullard speech
	Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech