Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending Friday’s
late strength. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow
down 30 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is
currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by
approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning
pricing.
There is nothing scheduled for release today that is relevant to mortgage
rates. There are a couple of Fed members speaking in New York this
morning that appear to be contributing to this morning’s gains in bonds.
There is another member speaking later this afternoon that some traders
will be watching, but since the subject is much more about banking than
economic growth, I doubt we will see any type of reaction in bonds or
mortgage rates as a result.
The first of this week’s six monthly and quarterly reports is September's
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late tomorrow morning. This Conference
Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET and gives us a measurement of
consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline in
confidence from last month's reading, indicating that consumers were less
optimistic about their own financial situations than last month,
therefore, less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. This
is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer
spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of
approximately 80.0, down from August's 81.5 reading. The smaller the reading,
the better the news it is for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Overall, there is data that is relevant to mortgage rates scheduled to be
posted every day except today. I don’t see an obvious choice for most
important day of the week but Wednesday has two of the six reports
scheduled, including the most important of the week. So, let’s label it
as likely to be most active although Friday does have two reports
scheduled also. I suspect we will see changes in mortgage rates multiple
days this week, but in small increments rather than sizable moves.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if
my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was
taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place
between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60
days from now...

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