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Home buyers face dilemma with shortage

Kathleen Pender

Published 3:28 pm, Saturday, March 9, 2013

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  The home at 2334 Clipper Street in San Mateo that received dozens of offers and sold for far above the asking price.
  Photo: Courtesy Claire Haggarty / NBT, NBT Realty Services
  The home at 2334 Clipper Street in San Mateo that received dozens...

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The sharp drop in homes for sale poses a tough choice for buyers: Jump in now and compete with hordes of others or wait until inventory improves.
If you buy now, you might have to pay above asking. But if you wait, you could end up paying an even higher price and a higher interest rate if you need a loan. That's because inventory won't improve until prices rise enough to get more homeowners to sell and more builders to break ground.
The inventory shortage is especially acute in California. Of the 30 largest housing markets, the four with the biggest drops in homes listed for sale on Zillow in February compared with February of last year were Sacramento (48 percent), Los Angeles, San Francisco (41 percent) and San Diego.

Although listings are increasing on a month-to-month basis as the busy spring season gets under way, Trulia Chief Economist Jed Kolko predicts they won't start rising on a year-over-year basis for a year or more.

An example of that: "In all of Millbrae, there was one listing two months ago. There are about a dozen now," says Roger Dewes, a Coldwell Banker agent on the Peninsula. In a normal market, there might be 20. "We are not there yet, but going from one to 12 is quite a leap," he says.

Experts cite five factors contributing to the inventory shortage:

-- Fewer foreclosures are hitting the market. "California did a good job of disposing of its backlog" of distressed properties, says Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.

In California, where most foreclosures are handled out of court, the process is taking about 11 months on average, according to RealtyTrac. In New York and New Jersey, where foreclosures go through a court proceeding, the process is taking 36 and 32 months, respectively.
-- Many people still owe more than their homes are worth. If they sold now, they would have to come up with extra cash to pay off their loan. Although prices have rebounded from their lows, 23.3 percent of homes with a mortgage in San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties were still underwater in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to Zillow.
-- Even if they are not underwater, many owners won't sell for less than they paid. If they bought near the peak, it may take a while before they are ready to budge.
The median price paid for a new or resale home or condo in the nine-county Bay Area was $415,000 in January. That's less than halfway between its low of $290,000 in March 2009 and its high of $665,000 set in June/July 2007, according to DataQuick.
-- Many people, even if their homes are worth more than they paid, won't sell because they are afraid they won't be able to buy another house. "It becomes a game of musical chairs; they are afraid to get out because they can't get back in," Humphries says. This becomes "a self-reinforcing cycle" that keeps homes off the market.
-- The housing bust put new construction on hold.
The shortage comes at a time when demand is rising in the Bay Area, not just from regular buyers but from investors, second-home buyers and foreign buyers, especially from Asia.

'Heck of a wreck'

The result is stories like this: A 1,500-square-foot home on Clipper Street on San Mateo's east side, advertised as a "heck of a wreck," attracted 97 offers in the first eight days, says listing agent Claire Haggarty of NBT Realty Services.

The home was listed in mid-January at $375,000, which Haggarty considered "a little under market." It sold for $510,000 in an all-cash deal with no inspections, no contingencies and a 10-day close.
At some point, prices will rise enough to shake lose more inventory, but it won't happen immediately.
Based on what's happening around the country, Kolko says inventory tightens fastest in the first 12 months after prices hit a bottom. "Everybody wants to buy at the bottom and nobody wants to sell at the bottom," he says.

About 12 months after hitting bottom, inventory continues to decline, albeit at a slower pace. But it won't increase on a year-over-year basis until at least two years after hitting bottom, he predicts.
If you adjust for the mix of homes sold, Kolko says prices bottomed in February 2012 nationwide and in most parts of California and the Bay Area. (The San Jose metro area bottomed earlier, in June 2011.)

Although DataQuick shows Bay Area home prices bottoming in 2009, that's when most homes being sold were low-priced. The middle and upper end of the market bottomed in early 2012, says DataQuick's Andrew LePage.

If you believe Kolko's two-year rule, inventory won't begin increasing on a year-over-year basis until at least early 2014 in most areas.
Humphries says it might improve earlier, by the end of the year, but "this spring will still be challenging from an inventory perspective." If you wait until next year to buy, the market may be cooler but prices are likely to be higher. There's also a risk that interest rates will be higher, he says.

Sweet spot

The sweet spot for buyers might be this summer. Even though inventory is falling year-over-year, "the seasonal pattern means there will be more homes on the market in the summer," Kolko says. "Search traffic peaks in the spring, but inventory peaks in July."
Many buyers also go on vacation in July and August, Dewes says.
The decision to buy or wait "really comes down to a fundamental decision about how long you will be in a home," Humphries says. "If you want to be in a home long enough to make buying better than renting, make that decision as soon as you can."
In the city of San Francisco, the breakeven point where it makes more sense to own is 3.7 years, Humphries says. "If you will be there more than 3.7 years, I'd say buy now."

Home inventory drops steeply

Change in the number of homes listed on Zillow in the largest 30 metro areas, February 2013 vs. February 2012.

Region	Change
Sacramento	-48.0%
Los Angeles	-45.7
San Francisco	-40.9
San Diego	-39.4
Minneapolis-St. Paul	-36.7
Riverside	-36.2
Kansas City	-32.4
Atlanta	-32.1
Las Vegas	-32.1
Denver	-32.1
Orlando	-27.1
Phoenix	-26.4
Boston	-24.2
Houston	-23.7
Washington	-23.3
Detroit	-21.9
Seattle	-21.2
Dallas-Fort Worth	-20.7
Portland	-20.5
Tampa	-20.1
New York	-18.9
San Antonio	-18.7
Philadelphia	-18.1
Baltimore	-16.9
United States	-16.6%
Chicago	-16.2%
St. Louis	-13.2%
Cleveland	-10.5%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale	-6.9%
Pittsburgh	-4.0%
Cincinnati	-0.5%

Source: Zillow

Kathleen Pender is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. Net Worth runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. E-mail: kpender@sfchronicle.com Blog: http://blog.sfgate.com/pender Twitter: @kathpender

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