Need to Know
MARCH 13, 2013
6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
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Good morning.
There's no shortage of drama in the selection process this week.
The born-again virgin Bachelor made his choice, the world breathlessly awaits a new Pope , and, for our purposes, investors are looking for something, anything to help divine more profits from this heated market.
Bollinger Bands be damned, it's getting harder and harder to resist the siren song of equities these days. Even some of the staunchest bears are growing horns as the Dow industrials gear up for what could be their ninth straight day of gains.
There's still plenty of money on the sidelines, sitting in less-sexy assets. Equity inflows, while picking up, are nowhere near the outflows we saw during the financial crisis. Why? James Bianco told CNBC that investors are missing out on these lofty gains not because "the market is hard or expensive, but because it's unfair."
Key market gauges: Not much for the bulls to get excited about this morning. Asia logged broad declines, bogged down primarily by the Hang Seng . Same is true in Europe , with the FTSE 100 taking the brunt of the damage. Futures on the Dow and the S&P are edging toward a slightly lower open. Read Indications .
The economy: February retail sales take center stage at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Analysts polled by MarketWatch are looking for a jump of 0.7% for the month, with the improvement likely reflecting a surge in gas prices . Without consumers having to pay more to fill up the tank, the month could have actually shown a dip.
On the easy-money front, investors can expect the Federal Reserve's quantitative-easing program to last for the remainder of this year , with no interest rate cut until 2015, according to Roubini Global Economics.
The buzz:After opening its books to Carl Icahn, Dell agreed to let another vocal opponent of its planned buyout take a peak at confidential information. But Dell had to draw the line somewhere . As the pressure builds on the computer maker to find an alternative to the proposed $24.4-billion buyout by founder Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management, the stock will remain on the radar.
Speaking of Icahn, Herbalife is back in the spotlight after a consumer group urged a government investigation into whether the company is a pyramid scheme. The stock is down 1% premarket.
The latest development in horsemeat-gate has made Tesco one of Google's top stories. The U.K. grocer has taken some frozen meatloaf off its shelves because tests revealed it contained up to 5% horsemeat.
OCZ Technology and Heckmann , both of which grabbed double-digit gains yesterday, are among the top-trending tickers on Market IQ . Leading the list is Glu Mobile, the subject of our call of the day below.
The chart of the day: Schaeffer's technical strategist Ryan Detrick pointed out that the Dow just closed above its upper Bollinger Band , a measure of volatility, for the fifth straight day. The last time this happened was back in 2007, right before the Dow started down its path to a 50% haircut. But before you freak out and unload your portfolio, he says that crash was an anomaly and that, actually, the market has held up well in the eight other times it's happened since 1980. Here's an illustration of these instances, with the green arrows pointing to "solid results" over the next three months. The red ones signaled poor results. For more on Bollinger Bands, click here .
There's no shortage of drama in the selection process this week.
The born-again virgin Bachelor made his choice, the world breathlessly awaits a new Pope , and, for our purposes, investors are looking for something, anything to help divine more profits from this heated market.
Bollinger Bands be damned, it's getting harder and harder to resist the siren song of equities these days. Even some of the staunchest bears are growing horns as the Dow industrials gear up for what could be their ninth straight day of gains.
There's still plenty of money on the sidelines, sitting in less-sexy assets. Equity inflows, while picking up, are nowhere near the outflows we saw during the financial crisis. Why? James Bianco told CNBC that investors are missing out on these lofty gains not because "the market is hard or expensive, but because it's unfair."
Key market gauges: Not much for the bulls to get excited about this morning. Asia logged broad declines, bogged down primarily by the Hang Seng . Same is true in Europe , with the FTSE 100 taking the brunt of the damage. Futures on the Dow and the S&P are edging toward a slightly lower open. Read Indications .
The economy: February retail sales take center stage at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Analysts polled by MarketWatch are looking for a jump of 0.7% for the month, with the improvement likely reflecting a surge in gas prices . Without consumers having to pay more to fill up the tank, the month could have actually shown a dip.
On the easy-money front, investors can expect the Federal Reserve's quantitative-easing program to last for the remainder of this year , with no interest rate cut until 2015, according to Roubini Global Economics.
The buzz:After opening its books to Carl Icahn, Dell agreed to let another vocal opponent of its planned buyout take a peak at confidential information. But Dell had to draw the line somewhere . As the pressure builds on the computer maker to find an alternative to the proposed $24.4-billion buyout by founder Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management, the stock will remain on the radar.
Speaking of Icahn, Herbalife is back in the spotlight after a consumer group urged a government investigation into whether the company is a pyramid scheme. The stock is down 1% premarket.
The latest development in horsemeat-gate has made Tesco one of Google's top stories. The U.K. grocer has taken some frozen meatloaf off its shelves because tests revealed it contained up to 5% horsemeat.
OCZ Technology and Heckmann , both of which grabbed double-digit gains yesterday, are among the top-trending tickers on Market IQ . Leading the list is Glu Mobile, the subject of our call of the day below.
The chart of the day: Schaeffer's technical strategist Ryan Detrick pointed out that the Dow just closed above its upper Bollinger Band , a measure of volatility, for the fifth straight day. The last time this happened was back in 2007, right before the Dow started down its path to a 50% haircut. But before you freak out and unload your portfolio, he says that crash was an anomaly and that, actually, the market has held up well in the eight other times it's happened since 1980. Here's an illustration of these instances, with the green arrows pointing to "solid results" over the next three months. The red ones signaled poor results. For more on Bollinger Bands, click here .
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The call of the
day: Glu Mobile shares exploded for a 17% gain on Tuesday,
powered up by word of the company's first foray into real-money gambling in the U.K. That gain is
nothing compared to what's in store for the rest of the year, according to
Seeking Alpha's Chris Katje. Along with what's shaping up to be looser online
gambling rules in the U.S., Glu's strong pipeline of games and its potential as
an acquisition target should push the stock up to $5, Katje said.
Random reads: Galatasaray shares are up 2% on Champions League glory . Thank you, Mr. Drogba (now come back to Chelsea). Dig it?
Score one for privacy . Google "must create a video for YouTube."
Hackers take on Mel Gibson and Donald Trump. It's like the Yankees vs. the Lakers -- any rational man would have a hard time rooting for either side in this saga . The real victims here seem to be the lawyers .
The fiscal cliff, the sequester, the debt ceiling ... and "the meat-filled miracle" of Doritos Locos Tacos . All powerful forces shaping the jobs market.
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise on Twitter.
Random reads: Galatasaray shares are up 2% on Champions League glory . Thank you, Mr. Drogba (now come back to Chelsea). Dig it?
Score one for privacy . Google "must create a video for YouTube."
Hackers take on Mel Gibson and Donald Trump. It's like the Yankees vs. the Lakers -- any rational man would have a hard time rooting for either side in this saga . The real victims here seem to be the lawyers .
The fiscal cliff, the sequester, the debt ceiling ... and "the meat-filled miracle" of Doritos Locos Tacos . All powerful forces shaping the jobs market.
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise on Twitter.
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