Know
MARCH 14, 2013
6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
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Good morning.
The Catholic Church's 1,300-year gap between non-European popes may be testing the limits of "history repeats itself", but the old adage is alive and well when it comes to forecasting what's next for this market.
The Zero Hedge blog transports us back to the 1930s through the magic of charts -- with the help of some Wall Street Journal headlines -- while Kerry Balenthiran walks us through his 17.6-year cycle theory. More on both below.
For now, the Dow industrials are vying for 10 sessions in the green, which would repeat history that took place in 1996, back when mad cow was breaking out, the Spice Girls were topping the charts, and I was toiling as low man on a Furman Selz sales team totem pole. It was also early days of the Internet bubble.
Five more positive days, and we'll break the all-time record streak set back in 1987. Worried it'll get ugly when this rally fuel runs dry? Don't be. History is in your favor .
Key market gauges: While futures on the Dow signal another day of gains could be in the offing for the blue chips, European stocks are breaching levels not seen since 2008 , bolstered by a move higher on Italy's FTSE MIB . Read: Stock futures up; jobless claims to set tone .
The economy: Weekly jobless claims, which are hovering just above five-year lows, could bounce to the 350,000 range from 340,000, economists suggest. We'll find out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Separately, wholesale prices are expected to have risen as much as 0.8% last month, mainly reflecting a spike in gas prices.
At the same time, the Commerce Department will release the current account deficit for the fourth quarter. The current account measures the total outflow or inflow of goods, services and income payments. The U.S. has been running current-account deficits for years. Read: Thursday U.S. data .
The buzz: Samsung's launch in New York later today will drive the tech chatter throughout much of the session. Does rival Apple have reason to fear the new Galaxy S4? With nothing immediately on Apple's new-product horizon, will its fierce competitor's timely launch deliver a grievous blow to the iPhone pioneer? All questions to be chewed on during the buildup to the event. Read: Samsung's Galaxy S4 dials up Apple pressure .
Today should be an interesting day for $aapl as everyone thinks it should get hit.Use $425 for key support then $435-$439 as key resistanc
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3Live) March 14, 2013
Read about how investors are down on Apple ahead of the launch. But here's why perhaps they shouldn't be . Shares are up 1.4% premarket.
Elsewhere on the busy handheld device front, BlackBerry shares rallied 8.2% yesterday on word of a record order for its smartphones, and the buying is spilling over into today's action. In fact, the stock is up 12% in Frankfurt and is poised to open with solid gains in the U.S. market.
Netflix , garnering attention for its plunge into getting more social , and Citigroup , which is expanding its reach of executive-pay clawbacks , are right up there with BlackBerry on the StockTwits radar .
Riding high atop Market IQ's trending ticker list are Express Inc. , which took a hit on its downbeat outlook , and VMWare Inc. , with its stock the beneficiary of the buzz generated from its "big data" push .
The chart of the day: We've seen plenty of charts (including a few in this blog) comparing prior market performance to what's happening today. Zero Hedge gives us the latest of these "optically pleasing (and often far too shockingly correct) indications of the human herd tendencies towards fear and greed" with this illustration.
The Catholic Church's 1,300-year gap between non-European popes may be testing the limits of "history repeats itself", but the old adage is alive and well when it comes to forecasting what's next for this market.
The Zero Hedge blog transports us back to the 1930s through the magic of charts -- with the help of some Wall Street Journal headlines -- while Kerry Balenthiran walks us through his 17.6-year cycle theory. More on both below.
For now, the Dow industrials are vying for 10 sessions in the green, which would repeat history that took place in 1996, back when mad cow was breaking out, the Spice Girls were topping the charts, and I was toiling as low man on a Furman Selz sales team totem pole. It was also early days of the Internet bubble.
Five more positive days, and we'll break the all-time record streak set back in 1987. Worried it'll get ugly when this rally fuel runs dry? Don't be. History is in your favor .
Key market gauges: While futures on the Dow signal another day of gains could be in the offing for the blue chips, European stocks are breaching levels not seen since 2008 , bolstered by a move higher on Italy's FTSE MIB . Read: Stock futures up; jobless claims to set tone .
The economy: Weekly jobless claims, which are hovering just above five-year lows, could bounce to the 350,000 range from 340,000, economists suggest. We'll find out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Separately, wholesale prices are expected to have risen as much as 0.8% last month, mainly reflecting a spike in gas prices.
At the same time, the Commerce Department will release the current account deficit for the fourth quarter. The current account measures the total outflow or inflow of goods, services and income payments. The U.S. has been running current-account deficits for years. Read: Thursday U.S. data .
The buzz: Samsung's launch in New York later today will drive the tech chatter throughout much of the session. Does rival Apple have reason to fear the new Galaxy S4? With nothing immediately on Apple's new-product horizon, will its fierce competitor's timely launch deliver a grievous blow to the iPhone pioneer? All questions to be chewed on during the buildup to the event. Read: Samsung's Galaxy S4 dials up Apple pressure .
Today should be an interesting day for $aapl as everyone thinks it should get hit.Use $425 for key support then $435-$439 as key resistanc
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3Live) March 14, 2013
Read about how investors are down on Apple ahead of the launch. But here's why perhaps they shouldn't be . Shares are up 1.4% premarket.
Elsewhere on the busy handheld device front, BlackBerry shares rallied 8.2% yesterday on word of a record order for its smartphones, and the buying is spilling over into today's action. In fact, the stock is up 12% in Frankfurt and is poised to open with solid gains in the U.S. market.
Netflix , garnering attention for its plunge into getting more social , and Citigroup , which is expanding its reach of executive-pay clawbacks , are right up there with BlackBerry on the StockTwits radar .
Riding high atop Market IQ's trending ticker list are Express Inc. , which took a hit on its downbeat outlook , and VMWare Inc. , with its stock the beneficiary of the buzz generated from its "big data" push .
The chart of the day: We've seen plenty of charts (including a few in this blog) comparing prior market performance to what's happening today. Zero Hedge gives us the latest of these "optically pleasing (and often far too shockingly correct) indications of the human herd tendencies towards fear and greed" with this illustration.
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Zero Hedge
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The author took it a step further , saying it's not just
the charts that are similar, but the headlines out of the Wall Street Journal
during that time. "While a picture can paint a thousand words; a thousand
words may also paint the biggest picture of all," he wrote. "It
seems, socially and empirically, it is never different this time."
The call of the day: We are pushing our way through a 17.6-year bear market that will drag the Dow industrials down to 10,000 by the end of the year, according to Kerry Balenthiran , who laid out his brand of technical analysis to a somewhat prickly host on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe this morning.
In his recently published book, Balenthiran explains that bear and bull markets historically last 17.6 years. We've seen bull markets from 1982 to 2000 and 1947 to 1965; bear markets from 1929 to 1947, 1965 to 1982 and now, 2000 to 2018. When this bear cycle ends, "equities will be the place to be post 2018, but before then I don't think they will keep up with inflation," he wrote. Read more about his theory .
Random reads: "They surfaced five months later, drugged and seminude, in a field." This and more on the new pope . Bonus: a worst-dressed papal slideshow.
First Rodman and Kim Jong Un, now Putin and Steven Seagal .
"You want a statement on Jennifer Lawrence? From the Westboro Baptist Church?" Read more about what hate groups think of the Hunger Games starlet .
Barry Ritholtz tells MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert that "he's doing it wrong."
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise on Twitter.
The call of the day: We are pushing our way through a 17.6-year bear market that will drag the Dow industrials down to 10,000 by the end of the year, according to Kerry Balenthiran , who laid out his brand of technical analysis to a somewhat prickly host on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe this morning.
In his recently published book, Balenthiran explains that bear and bull markets historically last 17.6 years. We've seen bull markets from 1982 to 2000 and 1947 to 1965; bear markets from 1929 to 1947, 1965 to 1982 and now, 2000 to 2018. When this bear cycle ends, "equities will be the place to be post 2018, but before then I don't think they will keep up with inflation," he wrote. Read more about his theory .
Random reads: "They surfaced five months later, drugged and seminude, in a field." This and more on the new pope . Bonus: a worst-dressed papal slideshow.
First Rodman and Kim Jong Un, now Putin and Steven Seagal .
"You want a statement on Jennifer Lawrence? From the Westboro Baptist Church?" Read more about what hate groups think of the Hunger Games starlet .
Barry Ritholtz tells MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert that "he's doing it wrong."
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise on Twitter.
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