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Need to Know
JULY 16, 2013
7 gut checks before the stock
market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
Good
morning.
If U.S. markets were sucking on a Camelbak atop Mt. Ventoux, you couldn't
blame a few suspicious Frenchmen for raising their eyebrows. This ascent
has been otherworldly, especially in terms of its consistency. Stocks
climb, that's what they do. Get used to it. Who cares why, right?
Overall, the S&P has gained for eight straight days while the Nasdaq
100 has knocked out 14 in a row. The Russell 2000, home to those white-hot
small caps, has closed at a record high in each of the last seven
sessions. That's happened 17 times since 1979, but we haven't seen it since 1997 . In the
month following such streaks, returns have averaged 1.5% and have
registered gains 76.5% of the time.
Stocks aren't doing much early, but there's no reason to believe Goldman's
upbeat report this morning or Yahoo's this afternoon will do anything to
derail these streaks.
Key market gauges: Asia stocks followed up the record
push in the U.S. with some gains of their own. Leading the way, the Nikkei
rose to its seven-week high, closing up 0.6%. Europe isn't
faring as well, pulling back after some disappointing data out of Germany.
In the U.S., stocks are barely budging in the premarket session. Futures on
the Dow and the S&P are both straddling the breakeven line.
Same is true with crude oil and gold . Read: Indications .
The economy: The U.S. consumer price index hits at 8:30 a.m.
Eastern and economists are looking for an increase of 0.5% on the back of
higher gasoline and food costs. If that's the case, it would mark the
biggest gain since February. At 10:00 a.m., the National Association of
Home Builders housing-market index is expected to show a reading of 52,
which means "good" conditions for builders. Of course, these are
mostly just placeholders until Bernanke steps from behind the curtain on
Wednesday. Read: Spotlight on the economy .
Earnings: Following the lead of rivals J.P. Morgan and
Citigroup , Goldman reported some strong second-quarter numbers ,
beating targets for the sixth straight quarter. Hey, another streak. The
stock is up 1% premarket.
Johnson & Johnson is also catching a lift from its report, which
included an upbeat view of the rest of the year. Coca-Cola shares,
however, are down more than 3% after the company posted lower second-quarter earnings and sales .
Yahoo reports after the closing bell. Wednesday marks Marissa Mayer's first
anniversary at the helm. Looking back at the past year should give
investors "little to regret, a few things to be excited about, and
cautious optimism for Yahoo's future." Read: Outside the box .
The buzz: When a stock busts out with a 112% rally, odds are
it'll pop up on most radars. Such is the case with buyout target Leap
Wireless . Here's why higher bids than the one from AT&T may emerge
, though most analysts don't seem to be too convinced. Baidu is also
in play, adding to yesterday's 5% rally after the Internet-search company
said it'll buy 91 Wireless Websoft . Boeing ,
Vodafone and Citigroup are also trending on Market IQ
.
The chart of the day: Investors have never been more bullish
on the dollar , according to this Bofa/Merrill Lynch chart posted by
London-based fund manager @pawelmorski . His tweet takeaway from the
spike: "Be very afraid."
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Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
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The
call of the day: An Apple-esque drop could
be in the cards for "short candidate" Google , says Seeking
Alpha's Bill Maurer. Slowing revenue growth, pricey valuation and the
potential for cash to flow back into a rebounding Apple could all
combine to contribute to a painful stretch for Google , he
explains. "There has always been the rationale that Apple is
undervalued when compared to Google. But couldn't the case also be that Google
is overvalued when compared to Apple? Right now, it could be a case of
both," Maurer wrote. Google reports on Thursday and here's why the numbers could propel the stock to
$1,000 . Or not.
Random reads: Since repression has worked out so well for
them over the years, here's more evidence that Catholics have a problem with nudity .
To America, my dear alcoholic brother, here's hoping you give
up your wayward ways .
One-fourth of Wall Streeters say they'd never, ever, ever trade on inside information . Unless they
could make $10 million. And were guaranteed not to get caught.
Dave Matthews gets a flat, catches a ride to his show with a fan. Not
much of a fan myself, but this strange
interview in Hamburg, Germany is worth watching anyway.
Rush Limbaugh on the Asiana pilots "Sum Ting Wong" name
prank : "Oh, yeah, Obama woulda read this. Yeah, he woulda
read the prompter straight -- and somebody, some intern in Cincinnati would
have been canned."
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