Tuesday, July 16, 2013

7 gut checks pre open


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MarketWatch
 
Need to Know
JULY 16, 2013

7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell

By Shawn Langlois
 
Need to Know
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Good morning.

If U.S. markets were sucking on a Camelbak atop Mt. Ventoux, you couldn't blame a few suspicious Frenchmen for raising their eyebrows. This ascent has been otherworldly, especially in terms of its consistency. Stocks climb, that's what they do. Get used to it. Who cares why, right?

Overall, the S&P has gained for eight straight days while the Nasdaq 100 has knocked out 14 in a row. The Russell 2000, home to those white-hot small caps, has closed at a record high in each of the last seven sessions. That's happened 17 times since 1979, but we haven't seen it since 1997 . In the month following such streaks, returns have averaged 1.5% and have registered gains 76.5% of the time.

Stocks aren't doing much early, but there's no reason to believe Goldman's upbeat report this morning or Yahoo's this afternoon will do anything to derail these streaks.

Key market gauges: Asia  stocks followed up the record push in the U.S. with some gains of their own. Leading the way, the Nikkei  rose to its seven-week high, closing up 0.6%. Europe  isn't faring as well, pulling back after some disappointing data out of Germany.

In the U.S., stocks are barely budging in the premarket session. Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are both straddling the breakeven line. Same is true with crude oil  and gold . Read: Indications .

The economy: The U.S. consumer price index hits at 8:30 a.m. Eastern and economists are looking for an increase of 0.5% on the back of higher gasoline and food costs. If that's the case, it would mark the biggest gain since February. At 10:00 a.m., the National Association of Home Builders housing-market index is expected to show a reading of 52, which means "good" conditions for builders. Of course, these are mostly just placeholders until Bernanke steps from behind the curtain on Wednesday. Read: Spotlight on the economy .

Earnings: Following the lead of rivals J.P. Morgan  and Citigroup , Goldman reported some strong second-quarter numbers , beating targets for the sixth straight quarter. Hey, another streak. The stock is up 1% premarket.

Johnson & Johnson  is also catching a lift from its report, which included an upbeat view of the rest of the year. Coca-Cola  shares, however, are down more than 3% after the company posted lower second-quarter earnings and sales .

Yahoo reports after the closing bell. Wednesday marks Marissa Mayer's first anniversary at the helm. Looking back at the past year should give investors "little to regret, a few things to be excited about, and cautious optimism for Yahoo's future." Read: Outside the box .

The buzz: When a stock busts out with a 112% rally, odds are it'll pop up on most radars. Such is the case with buyout target Leap Wireless . Here's why higher bids than the one from AT&T may emerge , though most analysts don't seem to be too convinced. Baidu  is also in play, adding to yesterday's 5% rally after the Internet-search company said it'll buy 91 Wireless Websoft . Boeing , Vodafone  and Citigroup  are also trending on Market IQ .

The chart of the day: Investors have never been more bullish on the dollar , according to this Bofa/Merrill Lynch chart posted by London-based fund manager @pawelmorski . His tweet takeaway from the spike: "Be very afraid."
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
The call of the day:  An Apple-esque drop could be in the cards for "short candidate" Google , says Seeking Alpha's Bill Maurer. Slowing revenue growth, pricey valuation and the potential for cash to flow back into a rebounding Apple  could all combine to contribute to a painful stretch for Google , he explains. "There has always been the rationale that Apple is undervalued when compared to Google. But couldn't the case also be that Google is overvalued when compared to Apple? Right now, it could be a case of both," Maurer wrote. Google reports on Thursday and here's why the numbers could propel the stock to $1,000 . Or not.

Random reads: Since repression has worked out so well for them over the years, here's more evidence that Catholics have a problem with nudity .

To America, my dear alcoholic brother, here's hoping you give up your wayward ways .

One-fourth of Wall Streeters say they'd never, ever, ever trade on inside information . Unless they could make $10 million. And were guaranteed not to get caught.

Dave Matthews gets a flat, catches a ride to his show with a fan. Not much of a fan myself, but this strange interview in Hamburg, Germany is worth watching anyway.

Rush Limbaugh on the Asiana pilots "Sum Ting Wong" name prank : "Oh, yeah, Obama woulda read this. Yeah, he woulda read the prompter straight -- and somebody, some intern in Cincinnati would have been canned."

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