|
|
|
Need to Know
JUNE 25, 2013
6 gut checks before the stock
market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
Good
morning.
Fibonaccis , Twitter readings , Bollinger Bands ... all sorts of
bullish metrics, no matter how esoteric, are being trotted out this
morning. Clearly, a fierce comeback in Chinese stocks has emboldened those
convinced the corrective blip is behind us.
Short-sellers, understandably, want no part of this schizo market. Bearish
bets on the S&P 500 have dropped to 2.3% of all outstanding
shares, marking the lowest level in six years , according
to Markit. Red flags like a shocking number of negative preannouncements
aren't enough to bring them back to the "don't pass" line. Not
yet, anyway.
After getting Tesla'd and Netflix'd to death all year,
who can blame them?
Key market gauges: The slightest whiff of a helping hand from policy
makers rescued Chinese stocks from another big hit as the Shanghai
Composite lost as much as 5.8% earlier. The benchmark recovered to
close down just fractionally. But Kelvin Tay of UBS isn't convinced.
He's looking for the stocks to drop another 5% to 8% in the
coming days, saying the government wants to send a "very strong
message" to banks on managing their liquidity. Then again, the
Shanghai Composite has only dropped back to December levels.
The shifting tide lifted all of Europe , with most major indexes in the
region gaining at least 1% after five dismal
days. And the global turnaround is setting the stage for a big opening push
for U.S. stocks, as futures on the Dow and the S&P are
showing strength ahead of the bell.
Even crude oil and gold prices are in the green. Here's a neat visual
on the perpetual bear vs. bull gold debate .
And for anyone preaching patience, here's gold's performance dating back to 1265 .
The economy:Plenty of data should shine a light on the state
of the housing recovery, with two reports, the Case-Shiller 20-city
composite and the FHFA house price index, due at 9 a.m. Eastern. Later, the
Commerce Department will report new home sales. Economists are looking for
that number to show a 2% rise to an annual rate of 463,000 in May. Before
all that, orders for big-ticket U.S. goods came in 3.6% higher in May,
mainly because of more demand for commercial jets and military equipment.
At 10 a.m., the Conference Board's consumer confidence report for June is
due. Read: Spotlight on the economy .
The buzz: Microsoft will be in the news much of
the week with the software maker kicking off its Build 2013 developers conference on
Wednesday in San Francisco. The event is expected to show off upcoming
changes to the Windows 8 operating system, but the company hasn't divulged
much in the way of what they'll be. Microsoft also inked a deal with Oracle yesterday.
Yahoo is holding its annual shareholder meeting later today in Santa
Clara, with CEO Marissa Mayer approaching her first anniversary on the job.
Let's take a look back at her offer letter from last summer.
Only $83,333.33 a month, plus incentives. Must be nice. And here's Tumblr
CEO David Karp's faux offer letter . Click here for the live webcast , which starts
at 11 a.m. Eastern.
Apple dropped to two-month lows yesterday, breaching the $400 level
after Jefferies cut its price target. The stock is up less than 1% in
premarket trading. BlackBerry is riding high on StockTwits trending
list, joining Apple after shares managed to buck Monday's downtrend with a
2.4% pop.
Watch out for Netflix , too. Shares are under pressure early, off almost 2%
premarket after Bernstein downgraded the stock to
underpeform, citing "unrealistic expectations across all major
economic levers of the business."
Bridgewater, which New York Magazine described as "the
largest and indisputably weirdest hedge fund," is having a rough year . The firm's All
Weather (whoops) fund, with about $70 billion under management, has lost 6%
so far in June and is down 8.5% for the year. The S&P, despite recent
weakness is up 10.3%.
The chart of the day:Remember when Dodd-Frank was signed into federal law
back in 2010, and smaller banks griped that it put them at a disadvantage
relative to the bigger guys? Regardless of whether you buy into that
argument or not, it's pretty obvious, according to Bespoke Investment Group ,
what the market thinks. Here's a telling chart on the incredible
outperformance large caps have enjoyed vs. their corresponding indexe
relative to how the small- and mid-caps have fared.
The
call of the day: They may be about as sexy as a
pair of mom jeans , but Barclays analyst Thomas
Weyl says that once rates stabilize and the markets settle, municipal
bonds will be ripe for the picking. "The recent selloff is not driven
by fundamentals," he wrote. "In fact, credit is improving at the
state level, with some pockets of difficulties at the local municipal
level. If the economy improves as the Fed expects, we expect
municipalities' fiscal health to recover as well."
He's not alone in this call. Dragonfly Capital's Greg Harmon is "revisiting the muni market,"
saying it may be time to "buy the bloody crash" via the iShares
S&P National Municipal Bond Fund . He mulls some technical buy signals
in this chart.
Random
reads: Cool, gravity-defying piece
of art in east London. A short tube ride away, the Shake
Shack and Five Guys are opening burger joints . Just in time for
me to head back to California. Where were you when I was choking down horse
meat?
The price of money skyrockets to $90 a dollar .
Embrace your "abundant manliness" with this, uh, chest-hair coat .
Americans relying on food stamps has exploded and they now outnumber the
whole population of Spain, yet the rich are getting richer .
After a triple bypass, this spry New Zealand grandmother of 15 in
fluorescent leggings says, "we will die dancing." Then she
got back to body-popping.
It's Obama, the CIA, the FBI, Congress, the American public and most of the
media vs. Snowden, Greenwald, a woman from Wikileaks and "a dodgy
travel document from Ecuador." The New Yorker asks: Which side are you on?
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening
bell, but sign up here to get it delivered
once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The
e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern.
Follow @slangwise on Twitter.
MarketWatch
has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it.
To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add
marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders.
Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com
Unsubscribe | Subscribe
Copyright
2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.
MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks
of MarketWatch, Inc.
By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07).
MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San
Francisco, CA 94111
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment