|
|
|
Need to Know
APRIL 18, 2013
7 gut checks before the stock
market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
Good
morning.
In a quip as timely as Goldman Sachs's gold call , my dad regaled
my seven-year-old daughter over the weekend with that old joke: What's the
last thing to go through a bug's mind when it hits a windshield? His butt.
She cracked up at first, but later admitted she didn't get it.
Laughs and confused kids aside, two of the most lovable -- or
loathable, depending what side you're on -- market bugs are indeed get
splattered.
For gold bugs, a swift gutting the likes of which hasn't been felt in decades greeted them this week. But one
bug's pain is another man's pleasure, right Mr. Soros?
Meanwhile, it's been more of a building angst for Apple bugs. Their beloved
stock dipped below $400 and lost its crown as the world's most
valuable company to Exxon Mobil , even though the oil giant hasn't exactly
been lighting the world on fire, either. Apple's checkup isn't due until
next week, but we could catch early signals of what's to come from another
report (more on that below).
In the broader scheme, it's been a volatile ride this week, and with a slew
of high-profile earnings on the way, expect more of the same. We've had
three 1% moves in either direction since Monday on the S&P. We haven't
had three swings like that in a single week since way back in June 2012,
according to BTIG.
What's an
investor to do? Well, don't bother listening to analysts. Coin flips are just as accurate . And beware the herd. As
BlackRock pointed out in its chart of the week : "In an ideal
world, investors 'buy low, sell high.' Though the rule seems simple, we've
often seen investors do the exact opposite, especially during volatile
times."
To borrow some wise words of advice from Jerry Seinfeld
: "If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would
have to be right."
Key market gauges: European markets are showing signs of
life, recovering from the 2013 lows that most of the major
bourses in the region closed at yesterday. Weakness on the Nikkei
kept Asia stocks in the red. Read: Sydney, Tokyo stocks sink .
In the U.S., stocks look set for a mildly upbeat open with futures on both
the Dow and the S&P moving higher. Gold is also
trying to regain some footing, though it's barely budging in the wee
hours.
The economy: The number of people who applied for new
unemployment benefits last week rose by 4,000 to 352,000, indicating little
change in a soft U.S. labor market. Economists had expected a seasonally
adjusted 346,000. The claims have fluctuated wildly over the past few
weeks, clouding any attempt to draw conclusions from any labor-market
trends. Investors will also sift through the latest reports on
manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia area and U.S. economic
indicators. There's also a crowded slate of Fed speakers skedded throughout
the day.
Earnings: Morgan Stanley investors are hoping the bank
can succeed where Bank of America failed and inspire a bit of buying
with its quarterly results this morning. So far, not so good. The stock is
down premarket following the results. BofA shares fell 5% yesterday after the company's
report missed targets.
Other reports to watch out for throughout the day include Google , Chipotle
, Microsoft and IBM , to name a few. A bunch of others, like Philip
Morris , hit before the opening bell. Read MarketWatch's earnings outlooks
for both Google and Microsoft .
Verizon , an important sales channel for the iPhone, is also on the docket,
and Apple enthusiasts will be focused on what kind of clues it might have
for what's to come in their report next week. Read: Verizon results may take next bite out of Apple
.
The buzz: EBay shares are getting beaten up a bit
in premarket trading after the company's forecast for second-quarter profit
and sales came in below Wall Street targets. Still, the online auctioneer
reported a 19% improvement in first-quarter
earnings. Yahoo is catching some residual, post-earnings buzz , as well. So
are Bank of America and toy maker Mattel .
Nokia is going to get pummeled when trading begins in New York if the
11% share price thrashing at the hands of Finnish traders this morning is
any indication. The handset maker posted a 20% drop in first-quarter sales .
On StockTwits Apple and Google are atop the trending list, joined by
Tesoro , Chipotle and Verizon. SanDisk , Textron and American
Express are drawing clicks on Market IQ .
The chart of the day: This isn't exactly a newsflash, but,
it's true. Americans, except those in Colorado, are getting fatter . What you may not know
is that those investing in the gluttonous trend are also getting
fatter, wallet-wise, according to this chart from Research Puzzle . Just
look at how food and beverage stocks have trounced the market in the past
13 years. It's all about beer and cheese puffs, folks. But you might want
to consider using a vibrating fork .
The
call of the day: In the spirit of the whole
opposite thing, Matt Gohd of Wallach Beth Capital, up until this week a big
bear on gold, told CNBC yesterday afternoon it
might be time to start swimming upstream. "Everybody hates gold
now. Which means that gold has priced in every negative potential that
could happen to it," Gohd said. He explained that a vacuum of supply
could create a 15% short-term bounce. His advice: Use options to gain gold
exposure rather than buying the metal outright.
Random reads: One lucky Glasshole -- defined by the
Urban Dictionary as "a person who constantly talks to their
Google Glass, ignoring the outside world" -- almost nails down a six-figure deal for his nerd glasses.
Almost. (Google Glass or taking a picture with an iPad, which is dorkier?
Discuss).
So Kim Jong-Un doesn't really plan to annihilate us ? Speaking of hungry
masses, the streets of Greece are growing increasingly crowded with kids
looking for food .
These guys clearly aren't starving .
Poke fun at Twitter and Facebook all you want, but social traders are laughing all the way to the bank
, according to an MIT study.
Chilling footage of the West, Texas blast .
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening
bell, but sign up here to get it delivered
once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The
e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise
on Twitter.
MarketWatch
has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it.
To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add
marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders.
Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com
Unsubscribe | Subscribe
Copyright
2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.
MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks
of MarketWatch, Inc.
By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07).
MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San
Francisco, CA 94111
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment