7 gut checks before the open (this is last post for 8 days)

Need to Know APRIL 23, 2013 7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Good morning. A one-way ticket to Mars has to be sounding pretty good to the unfortunate masses riding Apple stock like that guy on the bomb in "Dr. Strangelove." Maybe today will change all that. Perhaps Apple's report will surprise to the upside and help the woeful stock follow Netflix into the stratosphere. But the tech world is clearly girding for the worst-case scenario. The broader market, too, seems to be positioning itself for the inevitable rally-ender. Small-caps are underperforming larger-caps, Treasurys are beating junk and staples are smoking cyclicals. These charts  tell the story of a skittish market. Yes, as we've pointed out many times in this space, defensive sectors are driving market gains. If it feels different, it should. Typically, the risk-averse sectors are on the outside looking in, but that's not the case in this rally. The PowerShares S&P Low Volatility ETF  is up more than 15% since the beginning of the year, vs. a 9.7% gain on the S&P.  "Conservative investors are profiting at the expense of the risk takers," writes Michael Harris of the Price Action Lab blog . "Does this mean that eventually the spread will close in favor of the risk takers?" Good question. One that today might go a long way in answering considering the gravity of the Apple report and the searing advance that's in store for Netflix. Key market gauges: China's disappointing PMI sent shivers through Asian markets with the Shanghai Composite , off 2.6%, taking the worst of it. The Hang Seng Index  dropped 1.1%, while the Nikkei  fared better with a 0.3% decline. Read: Asia stocks trip over weak China data. Europe , with its own lackluster PMI numbers rolling in, didn't sweat weakness overseas. All the major index's in the region are moving up so far this morning, led by France's CAC 40  and Spain's IBEX 35 . Even Germany's DAX  shook off early declines to push nicely into the green despite a six-month low on its PMI reading . Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are rebounding nicely from earlier declines. Gold  is meandering lower after logging three-straight rebounding days of gains. See Indications . The economy: Data on new single-family home sales will hit at 10 a.m. Eastern, with economists looking for an annual rate of 421,000 in March, up from 411,000 the prior month. Lowly interest rates continue to spur demand even amid the frigid weather headwind. We'll also get the Federal Housing Finance Agency's home-price index numbers for February and the "flash" version of Markit's purchasing managers index for April. Read: Spotlight on the economy. Earnings on tap: Apple  is expected to report a profit of $9.98 a share on sales of $42.3 billion for the March quarter, that would be a bit lighter on the earnings side but an improvement on the top line. The stock gained ground yesterday and MarketWatch's Dan Gallagher says a miss may already be priced in . Before the world stops spinning for Apple, investors will have a chance to ruminate on some other notables throughout the morning, like Lockheed Martin , Travelers , and United Technologies , to name a few. The buzz: Twitter is the top story on Google's business page thanks to Anthony Weiner's return . His first tweet since his saucy self-portrait two years ago was a bit of a snoozer. Here's hoping we get more of Weiner circa 2011. keystothecity.uberflip.com/i/121474 — Anthony Weiner (@anthonyweiner) April 22, 2013 As far as tickers, Netflix  is the top trender on StockTwits after last night's ridiculous post-earnings rally . The stock surged some 24% in extended trading, adding to the 6.7% regular session pop. The binge-viewing strategy seems to be working as subscribers keep on flocking at a faster-than-expected pace. Cree  is drawing some pre-earnings attention, and sentiment is running bullish thanks to a chart that has technical analysts feeling confident. VMware , Tiffany  and AT&T  are also trending. The chart of the day: From our own slide show of 5 Apple charts , here's one to keep in mind, considering Apple says it plans to issue numbers closer to its guidance.  The company has beaten its own forecast by an average of 31% over the past two years. While shareholders can't complain (until recently), the days of obliterating forecasts, both within the company and from Wall Street, may be over. The call of the day: "In real terms, the market top of 1929 was not exceeded till 1960: 31 years," writes Seeking Alpha contributor Emmet Kodesh . "The situation today is far grimmer in being sustained by fictions and manipulation." Not exactly a bowl full of sugar-coated sunshine, he says we're heading toward "stagflation and global depression." Kodesh warned that the correction we're about to see won't have a V-bounce like the one in mid-2009. The kicker: "The controlling oligarchy is re-setting the macro structure and consolidating wealth to produce a fiercely extractive, maximally managed hi-tech feudalism." Random reads: Want to colonize (and eventually die on) Mars? This Dutch firm plans on making it happen BY 2023 and is accepting applications. The catch: It's a one-way ticket. Even worse, there'll be no water showers. Judging from the website, it appears 10 people have already signed up to take the plunge . Weetabix has halted production of Minis and Oatibix Bites after England's worst harvest in decades. And the Internets mourn. NOOOOO SOCIETY WILL CRUMBLE! Britain's disastrous wheat harvest halts production of Weetabix Minis and Oatibix Bites bit.ly/11CawuT — Alexander Rowland (@drapiroh) April 22, 2013 Sex is a way for men "to be aggressive and manly but also [uh] tender and vulnerable." The uncomfortable "uh" is mine. Read more on why experts think sex is more emotional for guys than it is for women . Cool or disturbing? You can order pizza without ever having to get out of your sweet video game chair . (h/t @BrianSozzi ) Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. 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