Monday, April 22, 2013

6 gut checks before the market opens


Need to Know

APRIL 22, 2013

6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell


By Shawn Langlois

 

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Good morning.

A full slate of earnings will drive the trading action this week, with plenty of heavies -- none heavier than Apple -- taking some of the market's attention away from Ben Bernanke's decision to skip the Jackson Hole boondoggle  this year.

What we've seen so far is that bottom line numbers have held up just fine but revenue has been mostly disappointing . Of course, that's just one of many percolating concerns over whether U.S. stocks are dancing on the edge of a downturn.

Copper's nasty drop, the steady rise of defensive sectors , and the U.S. market's continued outperformance noted in the "chart of the day" below are some others. Read about why gold's drop could be signalling an equities decline .

And, for good measure, John Hussman offered his take on Barron's latest artwork : "When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it's probably about time to cash in the chips."

Key market gauges: Japan stocks surged, with the Nikkei  pacing an otherwise muted advance in Asia as the yen  tripped lower. Shanghai  sat out the rally. Read: Why Japan is now the land of rising stocks .

Europe  is up early, led by Italy's FTSE MIB , though Pimco's Bill Gross tells the Financial Times that the region is doing it all wrong .

Gross "you've got to spend money". (Whether you have any or not)

— kit juckes (@kitjuckes) April 22, 2013

Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are showing signs of life. Gold  is working its way back from its massive drop. Read why Josh Brown is rooting for a rebound in gold  even though he has no skin in the game.

Earnings: A busy week is on tap, with all eyes on Apple  tomorrow. Other notables on the sked include Netflix , Amazon.com  and Qualcomm . Read: 10 tech earnings you can't afford to miss .

Caterpillar, with its stock holding strong premarket, kicked off the week by posting lower first-quarter profit and sales and lowering its outlook for the year.

The buzz: Apple will for sure be trending in a big way all week, no surprise there. Some others that normally aren't on the StockTwits radar but find themselves there this morning include Core Laboratories , Swift Energy  and, understandably, Caterpillar . Read: Stocks to watch .

On Market IQ , Under Armour is trending after last week's report  served as another step in the company's bid to become a dominant athletic gear player. Baker Hughes  and Kimberly-Clark are also attracting clicks.

The chart of the day: Beware the top dog, warns the Short Side of Long blog . "Best performers usually get their titles by rallying way ahead of fundamentals and discounting all the good news, with plenty of negative surprises waiting on the other side," the author wrote in an entry over the weekend. In this case, it's the U.S. market vs. the rest of the world, and "from the contrarian point of view, being the best performer -- U.S. could surprise on the downside," he said.

Short Side of Long

The call of the day: Copper  generally serves as a proxy for the health of the global economy, and its recent drop to an 18-month low  on weakness in China is a bit unsettling. Goldman said the selloff was "overdone," but it still cut targets on the metal after having recently nailed the gold drop . Goldman pared its 12-month target to $7,000 per ton from $8,000 and also cut its three- and six-month forecasts. Back in March, Goldman offered a more upbeat outlook .

Random reads: What's the best strategy for taking in breaking news? Turn off your TV, Twitter, email, your PC and check back in the next morning . Howard Linzon sees the news flow differently , at least when it comes to Twitter.

Great weekend for celebrities behaving badly. A tipsy Reese Witherspoon apparently drops the "do you know who I am?" line and a hungry Luis Suarez, probably the Premier League's best player, took a bite out of a Chelsea defender .

"Real-life Russian tycoons have been known to buy game time for teenagers who then return the favor through their manual labor by mining asteroids and building ships for days on end. Players were once caught plotting to cut the power lines to another player's house to leave him exposed during a major battle." Ah yes, brings me back to my lost Everquest days. Read about Eve and its "most devoted" following .

Hey, it's nothing personal, the French are "taught to be unhappy through societal and cultural development at an early age." (h/t @moorehn )

More revealing details on the Tsarnaev family dynamic , which included "a powerful transformation to a more intense brand of Islam."

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