Fed
Lays Out Plan to Taper
It began as a decent
week for mortgage rates. Ahead of Wednesday's highly anticipated Fed meeting,
mortgage rates were a little lower on a week-over-week basis, as reflected in
the weekly survey from Freddie Mac. Investors, however, pushed rates significantly
higher after the Fed statement and press conference.
The Fed's massive
bond buying program has greatly increased the demand for mortgage-backed
securities (MBS). Since mortgage rates are mostly determined by MBS prices, the
added demand for MBS has been a major factor in the decline in mortgage rates
to historically low levels. Wednesday's Fed statement and follow-up comments
from Bernanke provided the clearest signal yet that the extra demand from the
Fed will soon begin to shrink. The Fed's forecast for economic growth and the
level of unemployment have improved. The statement noted that the downside
risks to the economy have diminished. Bernanke even went so far as to say that
if interest rates increase "for the right reasons" it is a "good
thing." Any investors who had been hoping for signs that the Fed would not
soon slow its bond buying program were very disappointed. Instead, the Fed
signaled that if their economic forecasts are accurate, then the tapering of
bond purchases will begin later this year and conclude in the middle of next
year.
One
of the main sources of strength in the economy which has helped convince the
Fed that it's nearly time to taper is the housing market, and the data released
this week continued to show improvement. May Existing Home Sales increased 4%
to the highest level since November 2009 (when the home buyer tax credit was
about to expire). Total housing inventory of existing homes available for sale
rose 3%. May Housing Starts increased 7% from April. Single family Building
Permits rose to the highest level since May 2008. The June NAHB Homebuilder
confidence index posted a large increase to the highest level since April 2006.
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