Thursday, June 20, 2013

6 Gut checks pre open


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MarketWatch
 
Need to Know
JUNE 20, 2013

6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell

By Shawn Langlois
 
Need to Know
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Good morning.

"I'm like King Midas in reverse," Fed chief Ben Bernanke admitted in Wednesday's press conference.

Actually, no, that quote came from the late great James Gandolfini in his role as beloved thug Tony Soprano. But it might as well have come from Bernanke after yesterday's complete market meltdown. Or as Mike Shedlock describes it:  a "hissy fit over fluff."

Well, investors are still hissy-fitting this morning, and it's not just U.S. equities that are mired in full retreat mode. Gold is a mess. So are the global markets. Perhaps a slew of economic data and a key report from the tech sector today can help turn the tide?

Don't count on that happening in this environment, according to Shedlock, who says "the current markets are all about liquidity and speculation and nothing about fundamentals (in case you did not realize that already)."

Triple-digit-swing day number eight, here we come.

Key market gauges: Gold prices  are cratering, off about 6% and touching on levels not seen in more than two years. "As a trader said to me a few minutes ago, it's a bloodbath at the moment , with most technical support levels being broken, we could still see $1,280, then $1,265 being hit today," said Austin Kiddle, director at Sharps Pixley. It's not a whole lot better for stocks either, as futures on the Dow  and the S&P  aren't giving investors much hope for a rebound in the wake of yesterday's carnage. Read: Indications .

Sellers aren't being picky. Asia  was hit hard, bogged down by near-3% drops in most major indexes. Europe  is reeling midday, as well, with Germany's DAX  leading declines in the region.

The economy: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week jumped by 18,000 to 354,000 , putting initial claims back near the recent average and indicating little change in a modestly improving labor market. Economists were looking for only 340,000. Later, we'll get Markit Flash PMI data and the Philly Fed Survey. The full calendar also includes leading economic indicators and existing home sales, both at 10 a.m. Eastern. Read: Spotlight on economy .

For its part, China's central bank stayed away from any open-market operations , opting not to inject liquidity into a cash-starved banking system, even with rates on short-term repurchase agreements skyrocketing.

The buzz: Oracle's  offseason earnings report will hit after the market close, with one analyst looking for how Larry Ellison and co. have fared during "treacherous pockets of weakness" in the corporate software market. Retail food chain Kroger  is also on the light earnings docket. Read: Stocks to watch .

Men's Wearhouse  is still one of the top stories on Google's business page this morning after the public ousting of founder, chairman, and celebrated marijuana advocate , George Zimmer a day earlier.

Understandably, gold related tickers, including GLD , DUST  and NUGT  are dominating the trending list on StockTwits.

UBS lowering its #gold forecast today one month call to $1250 from $1425 and 2013 forecast to $1440 from $1600 - brace for the downgrades!

— Alix Steel (@adsteel) June 20, 2013


The chart of the day:
 When the market derails like it did yesterday, cash starts looking pretty good. But this chart from BlackRock shows how being scared out of equities and seeking the safety of the mattress could absolutely crush you in your golden years . After all, BlackRock points out that cash has averaged a negative real, after-tax return  dating back to 1926 while stocks come in at 4.5% annually. "Put simply, the more cash retirees hold, the greater the risk they will outlive their assets." Of course, you'd be forgiven for your hesitation to leap headlong into equities right now, but this is through a long-term lens, especially if you plan to live to 100 .
BlackRock
The call of the day: The U.K.  is the next U.S., according to UBS analyst Nick Nelson. For that reason, he upgraded the region to overweight, citing a decoupling from Europe, easing credit and rising home prices. "There is a political angle as well, as the government attempts to kick-start the economy ahead of the 2015 election" Nelson said. Pockets of strength include domestic banks, homebuilders and real estate, he said.

Random reads: On this day, I forgive you for "The Last Castle" and the fake salute. RIP Gandolfini . Check out some of his finest moments , from Gawker.

At least James can afford a proper funeral, unlike this guy .

Lawyer: "Have you ever used the 'N' word?" Paula Deen: "Yes, of course."

Bad: A brain hemorrhage that has you fearing for your life. Worse: The idea of being caught dead with porn still playing on your TV. Read and watch more about "Busty Cops 3" and Bret Michaels's brush with death .

Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter.
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