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Need to Know
JUNE 10, 2013
5 gut checks before the stock
market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
Good
morning.
Apparently, investors didn't get their fill from Friday's jobs-induced
207-point rally, and no amount of governmental snooping is going to keep
them removed from the stock game. At least in the early going.
Still, the ride looks anything but smooth for the foreseeable future with the appetite for risk-tolerance plunging in
recent sessions. In fact, action on the volatility gauge over the past few
weeks suggests fear is creeping back in large doses. Just look at the
turbulent market action we've seen lately. Blue chips have knocked out
triple-digit swings in six of the past nine sessions after
just four swings of that magnitude in the first 20 weeks of the year.
That's fine, because, like your friendly neighborhood adviser has most
certainly told you, there are piles of cash on the sideline patiently
waiting for the chance to buy the dip and keep the good times rolling,
right? Not exactly (see below).
Key market gauges:The Nikkei mounted a fierce rally,
rising almost 5% in its best performance since early 2011 as the yen
fluttered lower. That was enough to push the broader Asian index
higher. Mainland China markets were closed for public holiday.
For the most part, European stocks aren't catching much of a lift early, though there is some
spotty buying across some of the major indexes in the region, like
Germany's DAX 30 .
Futures on the Dow and the S&P are showing that Friday's
big rally might continue as we head into a new week. Gold and crude
oil are both down fractionally
The buzz: No topic even comes close to catching
Edward Snowden this morning in terms of sheer buzziness. The NSA whistleblower
is splattered across every corner of the Internet, and he's getting a hero's treatment . Wonkblog asks
"has the U.S. become the type of nation from which you
have to seek asylum?"
But markets-wise, Google's reported plans to purchase Israel's Waze for some $1.1
billion is trending and official word could come out today. Apparently,
Facebook ended its bid to buy the company last week after the two
sides were at loggerheads over the relocation possibilities for the Waze
team.
Incidentally, Facebook shares are up more than 2% in premarket trading on
the back of an upgrade to buy from hold, courtesy of Stifel Nicolaus
Other stocks to keep an eye on today include Lululemon , which bares all
with its first-quarter results later today, and AstraZeneca , on word that
it's buying Pearl Therapeutics for up to $1.15 billion. Read: Stocks to watch .
On the Apple beat, the company will kickoff its Worldwide Developers'
Conference with a keynote from Tim Cook later this morning. The event is
somewhat of a make-or-break for the CEO after the Apple faithful have been
disappointed by the last few releases. Read: Apple to reboot iOS as design chief takes lead
.
The chart of the day: As this chart shows, cash levels are
down to 16.7%; that's about as low as they have gotten in more than two
years, according to the Short Side of Long blog . In fact,
they're some of the lowest seen in 15-plus years, "This is not a good
time to be a buyer of equities, instead this is a good time to be holding a
large amount of cash!" the blogger, who goes by the name Tiho, wrote.
The
call of the day: John Hussman calling for a bear
market is hardly a headline, but the tone of his latest note takes the negative bent to
another level. The Hussman Funds manager says that, by the time the next
bear market comes to an end, the S&P 500 will have given up its
entire total return since 1997. And that's assuming the next drop is
"simply a run-of-the-mill" bear downturn.
Hussman goes on to say that the recent "Hindenburg Omen" sighting
will be one of the indicator's "spectacular successes", much like
the ones in 1987, 2000, and 2007. "The stock market is in a mature,
heavily bullish, overbought, overvalued bull market advance, near a
multiyear high in the S&P 500, with consumer confidence at similar
multiyear highs, with the broad perception that downside risk is
insignificant, and that 'tail risk' has been eliminated," he wrote.
"This is a dangerous place to be."
Random reads: Three decades after "a fallen angel,
dark, angry and also decaying" began his reign of terror, the Night
Stalker is dead. Here's a detailed -- caution, maybe too detailed -- look
back at his horrific story .
Elevator repair guys make almost $75,000 a year, on average. Some earn six
figures. Here are nine other reasons you might not need a
college degree.
Bill Maher says "it's a brand new pothead world" and that
"for all our political rancor, it turns out, what ultimately unites us
is pot." Read more from Rolling Stone .
"All of our worst fears have come to call and it's hilarious
... We asked for this when we chased social network after social
network, creating a deer trail that could lead a hunter to our
crushed-grass bed, still warm," writes John Biggs on TechCrunch .
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