6 Gut checks pre-open

Need to Know JULY 26, 2013 6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Getty Images Good morning. The worst thing you can possibly imagine is about to happen. And by "about", Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein means at some point. In the future. Given enough time. Bad things "not only can happen, they absolutely will happen." That's the definition of infinity, he explained. Everything comes to pass, eventually. When it all starts to go sideways, you need to be prepared in terms of contingency planning so that "you get off the blocks so quickly that other people think it's a false start," Blankfein said in Sydney this morning . If you believe this inevitable worst-case scenario for the stock market might unfold sooner rather than later, now's a good time to take your mark. Since 1987, August has been the worst month of the year for the blue chips, with average declines of 1%, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac . Thank Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and Saddam Hussein in 1990 for a big chunk of those losses. Facebook did its part in breathing more life into this market -- now attention turns to Amazon, Starbucks and a reading on the psyche of the U.S. consumer. Ahead of the open, bears are nibbling away and, as Michael Harris points out in the chart below, there's some troubling technical trends taking shape in the QQQs. Key market gauges: Crude oil  is falling toward its first weekly loss in five weeks . Earlier, the Nikkei's  five-week winning streak came to end , with the index closing off 3% to keep a lid on Asian stocks . Europe  is getting pulled in both directions early, with Germany's DAX  slipping and Spain's IBEX 35  leading the way higher. Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are both edging lower. The economy:Not a busy day on this front, but we'll get the final reading of consumer sentiment for July. Don't expect any surprises though. Americans are feeling better. A little bit, anyway. The numbers will be released by the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters at 9:55 a.m. Eastern time. Read: Spotlight on economy . The buzz: The Facebook  love-in isn't over yet in the wake of the stock's best-ever performance. Apparently teens aren't leaving , advertisers are warming , and analysts are eating crow . All this, and Facebook hasn't even unleashed Instagram yet. Starbucks  is ready to open with a bang. The stock had been waffling a bit this week but an upbeat report changed all that. Shares are up 6% early, tacking gains onto the already-strong performance this year. Zynga  investors aren't as lucky. The stock's 7% rally to close the day was quickly erased -- and then some -- after the company's CEO delivered a dose of harsh reality . Amazon  shares are fraying early, after the company said it swung to a loss. Curious why the stock is trading at such a high multiple? Here's why you probably should be . Check out "Earnings watch" for the latest beats and misses . One of the morning's huge winners, Activision  shares are up a whopping 22% after the "Call of Duty" video-game maker said it will buy back almost $6-billion worth of Vivendi's  holding in the company. Tesla  shares are also in rally mode after an upgrade from Deutsche Bank . The chart of the day: This is "one of the ugliest charts of all time," warns Michael Harris of the Price Action Lab blog . This Nasdaq 100 ETF  was the belle of this month's tech ball, having knocked out 14-straight sessions of gains. Now it's showing "high ambiguity" and "extreme cautiousness," leading Harris to his short bias. "Traders and investors obviously are very nervous due to various technical signals -- two gaps and loss of momentum -- but also due to some fundamental factors, such as the emerging market turmoil and the problems in China," he wrote. Price Action Lab The call of the day: BlackBerry  is not only here to stay, it's poised to more than double within a year, so says Frontaura Capital analyst Tim Raschuk . It's a stock "that Wall Street hates," with 38 out of 43 analysts rating the stock hold or sell. Their average price target is under $10 a share. Add to that the fact that more than a third of its float is shorted and Raschuk says the stock represents "a unique opportunity to buy a firm at significantly below intrinsic value." Raschuk said he believes shareholders would likely recover much more than its current market cap, even in bankruptcy. His six-to-12-month price target is $19 a share. Random reads: "Give me a hundred years. I can still screw. I can still run. And then I'm home." Immortality, plausible or quack science ? Those strange Amanda Bynes tweets aren't so funny anymore. Here's the latest chapter in her epic meltdown, courtesy of -- who else? -- TMZ. "Bathing is no longer a functional aspect, but something more emotional." So we obviously need to bring the shower into the living room . An iPad for every kid in L.A. by next year. In stark contrast, from the Florida files, lawmakers recently outlawed every computer . Everywhere. "Total Recall" isn't so far-fetched after all. Just ask these mice . Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111