6 Gut checks before open

Need to Know MAY 28, 2013 6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Barbara Kollmeyer   Reuters Good morning and welcome back. Was last week just a bad Fed-infested dream? U.S. stock futures are galloping ahead, along with Europe stocks, while a volatile Japan carved out a decent gain, helped by a yen retreat. So perhaps, traders are not ready to switch direction just yet. At least not ahead of  consumer confidence that's expected to show a big jump later. Stephen Pope at Spotlight Investing, says "aggressive buying" after last week's dip can't be ruled out because the U.S. economy looks steady and month-end book-adjusting before the end of May is kicking into gear. Fund managers, he says, will want month-end statements to show they're long on solid, strong beta names. Irwin Kellner also says party on, the punch bowl is still here. Still, post-holiday, investors may be reflecting again on last week's suggestions by the Fed that it could pare back on QE, news that upset the market apple cart, especially in Tokyo. Pragmatic Capitalism points out a SocGen warning over inflation that's at odds with equities. "If deflation is truly a big risk then there's an awful lot of faith being placed in the Fed's hands at present through QE," says Cullen Roche . The bears  say that it's not performance, but performance-chasing that's driving up Wall Street, while The Big Picture  says corporate buybacks are also playing a dangerous role in these gains. Key market gauges: In part thanks to the yen, stock futures are pointing to a rally for Wall Street later, with S&P 500 futures up around 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures going one better with a 1% gain. It's not hard to figure when you look at what happened overseas. The last two days in Tokyo have been up and down and all over in between. A pullback in the yen against the dollar after three winning sessions drove up Japan exporters and delivered a 1.2% gain for the Nikkei Stock Average , but that comes on the heel of a 3.2% fall the prior day, and last week's bloodletting. But at these levels, Japan is a buy, says Citi , while Jeff Reeves . Other Asian markets also rose, but less impressively. And in Europe, the Stoxx 600  was up 1.1%, with the FTSE 100  jumping 1.6% after that market also returned from a prior-day holiday. All those dollar gains haven't done much good for gold this morning. J.P. Morgan became the latest to slash its forecasts on gold and other metals. But if you're clinging to the bull rafters on the shiny stuff, Edelson  says gold should see one more major leg down before the bottom finally arrives. The economy:  It's all about the consumer this week, and household spending that is doing the job that big business, heavy industry and even the federal government is not. Consumer confidence data, due at 10 a.m. Eastern, is forecast to rise to 72.3 in May, hitting the highest level since last fall. Ahead of that at 9 a.m. Eastern, Case-Shiller home prices for March are due out. Curb your enthusiasm, says ZeroHedge , which maintains the U.S. economy is in an absolute mess and it's time we faced up. The buzz: Shares of Omthera Pharmaceuticals are up nearly 100% ahead of the open. AstraZeneca says it has entered a deal  to buy the heart firm for up to $12.70 per share, an 88% premium on Friday's close. Deal news was also driving up shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals . The Montreal-based generic-drug maker said Monday that it'll pay $8.7 billion for eye-care giant Bausch & Lomb. Bling slingers Tiffany & Co.  is up 5% in premarket trading after surprising on the upside with earnings and sales. Seeking Alpha says given its track record of earnings disappointment, Tiffany isn't on their stock wish list right now. The chart of the day: Long Apple  investors have been getting uncomfortable lately, owing to some questionable tax stuff . (Read ex-employees dish on secrecy culture.) Seeking Alpha's Nareg Khoshafian asks if investors are simply afraid of Apple. Using a MarketPsych Data graph, he explains fear surrounding Apple related to news and social media, versus the actual share price.  At present, the fear sentiment remains relatively high, but it's trending downward and that means there could be an upcoming surge in the share price, says Khoshafian. His conclusion: "Go long in Apple and hold it for about two months, as it is likely to rise versus the S&P 500. That said, longer term Apple is still in a deflating bubble." MarketPsych Data MarketWatch's Therese Poletti has some advice for Apple's CEO on how to win back investors. Ex-employees , meanwhile have been dishing on that secrecy culture. The call of the day: More than a feeling. iBankCoin says Boston Private Financial Holdings  is ready to break out after largely flatlining since 2008. The stock closed above $10 last Friday, and if it can "push up and out of this level right here, right now, suddenly we are looking at a wildly bullish development on all timeframes." Random reads: Truly unbelievable: Firefighters in Eastern China have rescued a two-day old baby boy lodged in a sewage pipe directly beneath a toilet in a residential building in Junhua.  The story has sparked outrage in China. And it should. One you might have missed that could make you rich, Microsoft is going after "xboxone" domain names . Don't pity lobsters, they age so gracefully they show no signs of aging, (Um, until they reach a horrible end in a pot?) Where do we sign up? "Fast and Furious 6" rockets to top of the four-day Memorial Weekend charts, taking in $122.2 million. A 7th installment is coming next summer. Good news! @Amanda Bynes is ready for a fresh start. After the bong-tossing incident, she plans to sue the NYPD and become a rapper/singer. Oh and get a nose job. It's people-watching season in NYC. 10 places to perch. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111