Need to Know JULY 29, 2013 7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   MGM Studios Good morning. So much for a chill summer. A freakishly busy stretch of economic indicators and earnings reports is about to hit a stock market that's ill-equipped to handle any bad news. The Fed knows that and, according to Ed Yardeni , will probably offer up the QE equivalent of some warm milk and a blankie. "I wouldn't be surprised if the 6.5% threshold for the unemployment rate is lowered to 5.5%," he said. Bulls would love to hear that leave those bearded lips. What they don't want to hear is another company coming up shy of top-line targets. Goldman Sachs points out that sales disappointments are getting punished more than they usually do, with 73% of those that miss estimates failing to keep pace with the broader market the following day. Typically, only 63% underperform. Obviously, there's not a lot of room for error in this stock market. Or, as Upside Trader puts it , "you have to be perfect or you go to the wood chipper." Key market gauges: The Nikkei  got chopped down to its lowest level in more than a month , while the Shanghai Composite  got nicked by more economic worries. Europe  is starting the week off in a greener fashion, except for Italy's FTSE MIB , which is drifting lower. Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are off a bit early. The economy: There's a Fed meeting statement on tap for Wednesday, but it should be relatively drab unless it signals some renewed urgency for tapering. While we wait for that, pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing numbers come out today, kicking off a ridiculously busy week of data that also includes second-quarter GDP, new-car sales and nonfarm payrolls. The list goes on. And on. Earnings:We just passed the halfway point in this earnings season, so there's still plenty left to come. Today's highlights include Anadarko Petroleum , Herbalife  and Wynn Resorts . Read: Stocks to watch . Second quarter earnings scorecard: Mark-to-unicorn http://t.co/SL4VRoVNKf — John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) July 29, 2013 The buzz: The biggest deal ever inked in the advertising industry jumps into the spotlight this morning. The massive $35.1 billion "merger of equals" between Omnicom  and Publicis  will create the sector's biggest company. Barclay's analyst Julien Roch says "everybody's a winner," even competitors, who will benefit from some client wins amid the merger disruption. Perrigo said it will buy Elan  for $8.6 billion, slapping a $16.50 per-share value  on the biotech company. Look for Elan shares to move up toward that number when the market opens. Other tickers trending on StockTwits include Sohu.com , Green Mountain Coffee Roasters , Trina Solar  and Hertz , which is trading lower after its report. Saks  is also on the rise, having announced that the company will be bought by Hudson's Bay  for $2.4 billion, or $16 a share, which represents a 4.5% premium to Friday's close. Saks shares are up almost that much premarket. Read why the deal is as much about high-end real estate as anything else. The chart of the day: This Credit Suisse chart has been popping up across the blogosphere in recent days. It shows the ratio of cyclical to defensive stock performance dating back to 2012, telling us which markets are looking for strong growth and which are more cautious. China  is clearly weighing on global growth targets while Japan is tipped to cash in on Abenomics-based stimulus. Read why BlackRock says its time for investors to rethink their approach to China. Credit Suisse The call of the day: Terry Allen claims a high success rate with his pre-report tips this earnings season, nailing down declines from Seagate  and Google  most recently. His latest bearish call focuses on what awaits LinkedIn  after it reports Thursday. He says signs are pointing to a "big drop", even if they beat targets, and advises that if you want to own it, wait for it to pull back from its spectacular run. Read about how he's playing the options . Then again, MarketWatch contributor Jeff Reeves offers up a different take altogether, saying that big numbers could send the stock higher . Either way, he's looking for good things ahead. "Investors can have confidence in LNKD stock going forward, whatever the upcoming earnings bring," he wrote last week. Random reads: If you had any doubt that the elusive American dream is in full-crumble mode, check out this survey from the AP . Some want to disconnect when they vacation, then there's Twitter-themed hotels . Johnny Depp tells a would-be groupie/BBC reporter that he may soon give up acting . A look at a North Dakota boomtown through the eyes of a stripper . Remember, no peeing in the garbage can or all dancers face a $10 fine. Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111