Thursday, August 1, 2013

Mortgage rates off this am


Greetings! Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of
Alan Russell & Princeton Capital!
Call me today for current rates and market information at (650) 947-2296.
 
 
 
 
 


Thursday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory due to stronger than expected results from today’s important economic data. The stock markets are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 137 points while the Nasdaq has gained 39 points. The bond market is currently down 24/32, which will erase yesterday’s afternoon improvements and then some. If your lender did not revise rates lower late yesterday, you should see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. If your lender did change rates intra-day yesterday, the increase this morning will likely be approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point.

Both of this morning’s economic releases revealed stronger than expected results. Early this morning, the Labor Department said 326,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was much lower than the 345,000 that was expected and the previous week’s revised total, indicating that the employment sector was stronger than many had thought.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) gave us their July manufacturing index late this morning, announcing a reading of 55.4 that exceeded forecasts by several points. That means that surveyed business executives felt business was much stronger in July than analysts were expecting to see. Therefore, the data is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially following yesterday’s stronger than forecasted GDP reading. Data that points towards a strengthening economy has a negative impact on long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds.

Tomorrow morning has three reports scheduled for release that are likely to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing with one arguably the most important report we see each month when the Labor Department posts their monthly Employment report for July. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of jobs added or lost during the month and the average hourly earnings reading for July. The best scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a sizable loss of jobs and little change in earnings. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate slipped 0.1% to 7.5% last month while approximately 175,000 jobs were added to the economy. Due to the importance of these readings, we will most likely see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing tomorrow morning following their 8:30 AM ET posting.

June's Personal Income and Outlays data will also be posted early tomorrow morning. This report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If it shows sizable increases, bond selling could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.5% in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. A larger than expected increase in income means consumers have more funds to spend, which is not favorable to bonds because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. We would like to see declines in spending and income that would indicate economic weakness, but the smaller the increase in each, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The third report of the day and final release of the week will be June's Factory Orders data at 10:00 AM ET. It helps us measure manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for both durable and non-durable goods during the month of June. It is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report that tracks orders for big-ticket items only. Since a significant portion of the data was released last week, this report likely will not have much of an impact on the markets. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in new orders of approximately 2.2%. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage pricing, but due to the importance of the morning’s other data, I don’t believe this report will have much of an influence on mortgage rates, regardless of its results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
 
 
 
Alan Russell
161 South San Antonio Rd. | Los Altos, CA 95022
Ph: 650-947-2296 | Fax: 408-335-1118
alanrussell@princetoncap.com

Quick social media tip


12 questions to ask before you list your home


The KCM Blog - 12 Questions to Ask an Agent/Broker BEFORE You List




Posted: 01 Aug 2013 04:00 AM PDT
Today we are honored to have a special post from guest blogger Rossi, the Edutainer, Author, Humorist, Lifestyle Motivator of ROSSI Speaks, Inc. Enjoy! – The KCM Crew
 House Survey11 How is your real estate business capitalized?
Marketing is expensive – training is expensive – running a business is expensive. You don’t want to hire an agent/broker/real estate company that is undercapitalized.
2 How many names are in your contact management system and how often are they contacted?
Yes, real estate data is important. Company files, personal files, and the MLS are full of important, useable, data. But what about people? You know, those who buy and sell real estate. Top agents compile a running database of those interested in buying or selling real estate.
3 What percentage of your business is listing… sales?
While most work with both, many agent/brokers today specialize in listing or selling.
4 What is your percentage of list to sell price?
Some associates, simply wanting to have a sign in someone’s yard, will take any listing at any price thus resulting in a low list to sell price. You’re looking for the professional who doesn’t have time to play games.
5 What is your & the area’s average days on the market?
While market conditions often dictate how long homes will sit on the market, you want to know that the agent you choose knows their stats.
6 What is your percentage of listings taken to sold and closed?
7 What percentage of your listings do you sell yourself?
It is great, as a listing agent, to sell your own listing. However, this happens less than you would expect – on average about 10% of the time. If someone promises much more, I would question it.
8 What percentage of your listings expire and why?
The number one reason listings expire is they are overpriced (discussed in #4 above). There are many other reasons: seller makes it difficult to show, unruly animals, unkempt property in poor condition and poor marketing.
9 What is the current market ‘absorption rate’ for my property?
10 What’s your ‘compelling point of difference’ and how will that convince me to do business with you and your company?
In my book, Dog Eat Dog & Vice Versa, 9 Secrets to Put The Bite Into Your Marketing, I have a complete Chapter titled Dare to be Unique and You Don’t Have to Compete. As in most jobs, everyone just follows the leader – “Me Too”. You’re looking for the stand out.
11 When will I see a strategic marketing plan for selling my property?
Simply put, the steps the associate and company will do to get your home sold.
12 What is the highest price we can expect and what will we need to do to our property to achieve it?
The goal is to get your home sold for the highest price, in the shortest amount of time, with the least inconvenience to you. The professional will be able to demonstrate how they arrived at the price point and what you’ll have to do to bring your property to the top of the market.
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7 Gut checks pre open




MarketWatch

 

Need to Know

AUGUST 01, 2013

7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell


By Barbara Kollmeyer

 

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Good morning.

Wednesday's Fed statement gave no big hint of any tapering plans, but some investors seem to be drawing their own conclusions and stock futures are following global markets higher (helped in part by China data and GDP afterglow ). The 'bright-siders' say a September bond-buying pullback may now not be such a sure thing.

Maybe. Among those Thursday-morning quarterbackers is Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian. He says  the Fed is likely holding back on addressing hot-button issues until September, when they hope investor apprehension "will be countered by additional data releases confirming that the U.S. economy is approaching 'escape velocity'." (For all you non-rocket scientists, that means a level at which a recovery is self-sustaining.) Still, September's meeting will be tricky, he warns.

We're not done with central banks. After no change on policy, an ECB press conference will have investors will be hanging on Draghi's every word to see how he feels about those "green shoots," like today's PMI. Advice for Mr. Whatever It Takes? "Don't get cocky" . The BOE, run by Carney the rock star , also left policy unchanged.

Are stocks really a go, or would you like five reasons  to hate the bull market? Pragmatic Capitalism adds to worrywartism by pointing to Merrill Lynch data that shows institutional clients and hedge funds have been net sellers of equities in the last five weeks, and Elliot Management is also going all gloomy.

Meanwhile, BofA Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett points out that since the lows of 2009, the U.S. economy has grown by $1.3 trillion, while the stock market has grown by $12 trillion. "Policy, positioning and profits best explain the seeming disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street," he says, adding that "when the real economy stands up, the central bankers will start to stand down."

And then, Houston, we may have a problem.

Key market gauges:  The Shanghai Composite  gained 1.3% after that China's PMI unexpectedly jumped . The Nikkei saw its best percentage rise in more than three weeks -- up 2.5% -- after solid earnings. The Stoxx Europe 600  also posted solid gains, getting some help from a round of upbeat earnings and the region's own PMI data. Goldman Sachs, by the way, shifted to underweight on India stocks saying foreign fund flows into the country over the past few years could start reversing out of the once high-flying BRIC star. The Sensex  is off a half percent year-to-date.

The economy:  After Wednesday, who could ask for anything more? But more ye shall receive. Jobless claims fell 19,000 to 326,000, the lowest level since January 2008. Still to come, Markit will release its purchasing managers survey at 9 a.m. with the Institute for Supply Management at 10 a.m. July monthly auto sales are also on tap, which could put Ford and GM  in the spotlight. This isn't even the end of it, as Friday's jobs data still loom.

Around the globe, China produced two separate manufacturing surveys  and they weren't exactly saying the same thing, though investors clearly decided to cheer the official report. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data hit a two-year high .

Earnings: Ahead of the open: Dow industrials components Exxon Mobil  and P&G  to name a couple. Then after the close, it's LinkedIN  and Kraft Foods taking the stage.

The buzz:Yelp  is up 12% in premarket after the online-review company smashed past Wall Street forecasts.

J.C. Penney  is up 6% in premarket. The company is denying  denying a prior-day report over new credit concerns that sunk shares 10% a day prior. But Citi was raining on the parade, cutting shares to sell from neutral and its price target to $11 from $20. "We do  not believe that JCP has made progress in stabilizing the business in 2Q13, and we see no evidence of a turnaround in the works," says analyst Deborah Weinswig.

Royal Dutch Shell   is off over 5% pre-open after it posted a 60% profit dump  due to a $2 billion-plus North American shale write-down.

Apple  shares are up 1% after Jefferies lifted its price target to $450 from $405, saying he sees a "floor" for iPhone shipments. Also, the WSJ reported earlier that Apple will tap Samsung for a new iPad mini device. Therese Poletti, meanwhile, asks if Apple is flying the pirate flag again .

Sony   is "deepening" discussions around disgruntled billionaire investor Daniel Loeb's case to split up the company. Loeb trashed the entertainment unit and dissed CEO Hirai  in a recent investor letter. Sony returned to profit on Thursday, which helped lift the Nikkei.

The chart of the day: History may be ready to repeat itself.  Check out the below chart from Kimble Charting Solutions , which makes the case that since a 1974 low for the Dow industrials , when Richard Nixon was impeached, key highs and lows have rolled around every 13 years. If this cycle repeats, then another historical price point is due this year. Kimble noted in April that the pattern was suggesting the Dow could hit 16,000 (see that chart here ). The Dow is now up 900 points since that post and at 15,499.54, that 16K level doesn't look too far off the horizon.

Call of the day: Check your enthusiasm at the door over Facebook , says Aswath Damordaran, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, in his latest blog.  The professor has had a few swipes at trying to value the social media group, which briefly hit its IPO price of $38 in premarket trading on Wednesday. He says history is repeating itself here.

"Last August, it was my belief that markets were overreacting to limited information in an earnings report from a young company and pushing its price down too much. Today, I believe that the markets are overreacting again to limited news from an earnings report and pushing the price up too much."

Damordaran, who values Facebook at about $27.65 a share, says he bought last August when the stock was trading below his estimate of its intrinsic value. For those who don't own it, he doesn't recommend selling short, though, as that momentum game that went against Facebook last year could reverse. Some investors could be "drawn into the stock if it crests the $38 IPO price, though there is really no economic or value significance around the number." He says he'll keep tracking Facebook because there's a good chance it could fall out of favor with investors and get back on his buy list.

Random reads: Say it ain't so Teresa and Joe. The Jersey couple who are facing tax fraud charges, could soon lose their reality show.

Chilling. A 1983 speech the Queen was ready to make in the event of all-out nuclear war with Russia.

Equally chilling, former Goldman Sachs programmer Sergey Aleynikov tells Vanity Fair how the banking giant landed him in prison. Goldman was pouring cold water on his story two days ago.

This country  could be the first to make marijuana legal.

Finally, we're being told. Why Florida is the craziest state .

Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @bkollmeyer  on Twitter.

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Brand Roi in the mortgage industry



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    Universe


     

    It's like you're a planetary body, alan, and right this very moment new friends, adventures, a to work from my essence or soul of love and anything else you'd like are just a little "gravity" away.

    That's what visualizing is for.

    Snag,
        The Universe