Need to Know
AUGUST 01, 2013
7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell
By Barbara Kollmeyer
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Good morning.
Wednesday's Fed statement gave no big hint of any tapering plans, but some investors seem to be drawing their own conclusions and stock futures are following global markets higher (helped in part by China data and GDP afterglow ). The 'bright-siders' say a September bond-buying pullback may now not be such a sure thing.
Maybe. Among those Thursday-morning quarterbackers is Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian. He says the Fed is likely holding back on addressing hot-button issues until September, when they hope investor apprehension "will be countered by additional data releases confirming that the U.S. economy is approaching 'escape velocity'." (For all you non-rocket scientists, that means a level at which a recovery is self-sustaining.) Still, September's meeting will be tricky, he warns.
We're not done with central banks. After no change on policy, an ECB press conference will have investors will be hanging on Draghi's every word to see how he feels about those "green shoots," like today's PMI. Advice for Mr. Whatever It Takes? "Don't get cocky" . The BOE, run by Carney the rock star , also left policy unchanged.
Are stocks really a go, or would you like five reasons to hate the bull market? Pragmatic Capitalism adds to worrywartism by pointing to Merrill Lynch data that shows institutional clients and hedge funds have been net sellers of equities in the last five weeks, and Elliot Management is also going all gloomy.
Meanwhile, BofA Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett points out that since the lows of 2009, the U.S. economy has grown by $1.3 trillion, while the stock market has grown by $12 trillion. "Policy, positioning and profits best explain the seeming disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street," he says, adding that "when the real economy stands up, the central bankers will start to stand down."
And then, Houston, we may have a problem.
Key market gauges: The Shanghai Composite gained 1.3% after that China's PMI unexpectedly jumped . The Nikkei saw its best percentage rise in more than three weeks -- up 2.5% -- after solid earnings. The Stoxx Europe 600 also posted solid gains, getting some help from a round of upbeat earnings and the region's own PMI data. Goldman Sachs, by the way, shifted to underweight on India stocks saying foreign fund flows into the country over the past few years could start reversing out of the once high-flying BRIC star. The Sensex is off a half percent year-to-date.
The economy: After Wednesday, who could ask for anything more? But more ye shall receive. Jobless claims fell 19,000 to 326,000, the lowest level since January 2008. Still to come, Markit will release its purchasing managers survey at 9 a.m. with the Institute for Supply Management at 10 a.m. July monthly auto sales are also on tap, which could put Ford and GM in the spotlight. This isn't even the end of it, as Friday's jobs data still loom.
Around the globe, China produced two separate manufacturing surveys and they weren't exactly saying the same thing, though investors clearly decided to cheer the official report. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data hit a two-year high .
Earnings: Ahead of the open: Dow industrials components Exxon Mobil and P&G to name a couple. Then after the close, it's LinkedIN and Kraft Foods taking the stage.
The buzz:Yelp is up 12% in premarket after the online-review company smashed past Wall Street forecasts.
J.C. Penney is up 6% in premarket. The company is denying denying a prior-day report over new credit concerns that sunk shares 10% a day prior. But Citi was raining on the parade, cutting shares to sell from neutral and its price target to $11 from $20. "We do not believe that JCP has made progress in stabilizing the business in 2Q13, and we see no evidence of a turnaround in the works," says analyst Deborah Weinswig.
Royal Dutch Shell is off over 5% pre-open after it posted a 60% profit dump due to a $2 billion-plus North American shale write-down.
Apple shares are up 1% after Jefferies lifted its price target to $450 from $405, saying he sees a "floor" for iPhone shipments. Also, the WSJ reported earlier that Apple will tap Samsung for a new iPad mini device. Therese Poletti, meanwhile, asks if Apple is flying the pirate flag again .
Sony is "deepening" discussions around disgruntled billionaire investor Daniel Loeb's case to split up the company. Loeb trashed the entertainment unit and dissed CEO Hirai in a recent investor letter. Sony returned to profit on Thursday, which helped lift the Nikkei.
The chart of the day: History may be ready to repeat itself. Check out the below chart from Kimble Charting Solutions , which makes the case that since a 1974 low for the Dow industrials , when Richard Nixon was impeached, key highs and lows have rolled around every 13 years. If this cycle repeats, then another historical price point is due this year. Kimble noted in April that the pattern was suggesting the Dow could hit 16,000 (see that chart here ). The Dow is now up 900 points since that post and at 15,499.54, that 16K level doesn't look too far off the horizon.
Call of the day: Check your enthusiasm at the door over Facebook , says Aswath Damordaran, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, in his latest blog. The professor has had a few swipes at trying to value the social media group, which briefly hit its IPO price of $38 in premarket trading on Wednesday. He says history is repeating itself here.
"Last August, it was my belief that markets were overreacting to limited information in an earnings report from a young company and pushing its price down too much. Today, I believe that the markets are overreacting again to limited news from an earnings report and pushing the price up too much."
Damordaran, who values Facebook at about $27.65 a share, says he bought last August when the stock was trading below his estimate of its intrinsic value. For those who don't own it, he doesn't recommend selling short, though, as that momentum game that went against Facebook last year could reverse. Some investors could be "drawn into the stock if it crests the $38 IPO price, though there is really no economic or value significance around the number." He says he'll keep tracking Facebook because there's a good chance it could fall out of favor with investors and get back on his buy list.
Random reads: Say it ain't so Teresa and Joe. The Jersey couple who are facing tax fraud charges, could soon lose their reality show.
Chilling. A 1983 speech the Queen was ready to make in the event of all-out nuclear war with Russia.
Equally chilling, former Goldman Sachs programmer Sergey Aleynikov tells Vanity Fair how the banking giant landed him in prison. Goldman was pouring cold water on his story two days ago.
This country could be the first to make marijuana legal.
Finally, we're being told. Why Florida is the craziest state .
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @bkollmeyer on Twitter.
Wednesday's Fed statement gave no big hint of any tapering plans, but some investors seem to be drawing their own conclusions and stock futures are following global markets higher (helped in part by China data and GDP afterglow ). The 'bright-siders' say a September bond-buying pullback may now not be such a sure thing.
Maybe. Among those Thursday-morning quarterbackers is Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian. He says the Fed is likely holding back on addressing hot-button issues until September, when they hope investor apprehension "will be countered by additional data releases confirming that the U.S. economy is approaching 'escape velocity'." (For all you non-rocket scientists, that means a level at which a recovery is self-sustaining.) Still, September's meeting will be tricky, he warns.
We're not done with central banks. After no change on policy, an ECB press conference will have investors will be hanging on Draghi's every word to see how he feels about those "green shoots," like today's PMI. Advice for Mr. Whatever It Takes? "Don't get cocky" . The BOE, run by Carney the rock star , also left policy unchanged.
Are stocks really a go, or would you like five reasons to hate the bull market? Pragmatic Capitalism adds to worrywartism by pointing to Merrill Lynch data that shows institutional clients and hedge funds have been net sellers of equities in the last five weeks, and Elliot Management is also going all gloomy.
Meanwhile, BofA Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett points out that since the lows of 2009, the U.S. economy has grown by $1.3 trillion, while the stock market has grown by $12 trillion. "Policy, positioning and profits best explain the seeming disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street," he says, adding that "when the real economy stands up, the central bankers will start to stand down."
And then, Houston, we may have a problem.
Key market gauges: The Shanghai Composite gained 1.3% after that China's PMI unexpectedly jumped . The Nikkei saw its best percentage rise in more than three weeks -- up 2.5% -- after solid earnings. The Stoxx Europe 600 also posted solid gains, getting some help from a round of upbeat earnings and the region's own PMI data. Goldman Sachs, by the way, shifted to underweight on India stocks saying foreign fund flows into the country over the past few years could start reversing out of the once high-flying BRIC star. The Sensex is off a half percent year-to-date.
The economy: After Wednesday, who could ask for anything more? But more ye shall receive. Jobless claims fell 19,000 to 326,000, the lowest level since January 2008. Still to come, Markit will release its purchasing managers survey at 9 a.m. with the Institute for Supply Management at 10 a.m. July monthly auto sales are also on tap, which could put Ford and GM in the spotlight. This isn't even the end of it, as Friday's jobs data still loom.
Around the globe, China produced two separate manufacturing surveys and they weren't exactly saying the same thing, though investors clearly decided to cheer the official report. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data hit a two-year high .
Earnings: Ahead of the open: Dow industrials components Exxon Mobil and P&G to name a couple. Then after the close, it's LinkedIN and Kraft Foods taking the stage.
The buzz:Yelp is up 12% in premarket after the online-review company smashed past Wall Street forecasts.
J.C. Penney is up 6% in premarket. The company is denying denying a prior-day report over new credit concerns that sunk shares 10% a day prior. But Citi was raining on the parade, cutting shares to sell from neutral and its price target to $11 from $20. "We do not believe that JCP has made progress in stabilizing the business in 2Q13, and we see no evidence of a turnaround in the works," says analyst Deborah Weinswig.
Royal Dutch Shell is off over 5% pre-open after it posted a 60% profit dump due to a $2 billion-plus North American shale write-down.
Apple shares are up 1% after Jefferies lifted its price target to $450 from $405, saying he sees a "floor" for iPhone shipments. Also, the WSJ reported earlier that Apple will tap Samsung for a new iPad mini device. Therese Poletti, meanwhile, asks if Apple is flying the pirate flag again .
Sony is "deepening" discussions around disgruntled billionaire investor Daniel Loeb's case to split up the company. Loeb trashed the entertainment unit and dissed CEO Hirai in a recent investor letter. Sony returned to profit on Thursday, which helped lift the Nikkei.
The chart of the day: History may be ready to repeat itself. Check out the below chart from Kimble Charting Solutions , which makes the case that since a 1974 low for the Dow industrials , when Richard Nixon was impeached, key highs and lows have rolled around every 13 years. If this cycle repeats, then another historical price point is due this year. Kimble noted in April that the pattern was suggesting the Dow could hit 16,000 (see that chart here ). The Dow is now up 900 points since that post and at 15,499.54, that 16K level doesn't look too far off the horizon.
Call of the day: Check your enthusiasm at the door over Facebook , says Aswath Damordaran, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, in his latest blog. The professor has had a few swipes at trying to value the social media group, which briefly hit its IPO price of $38 in premarket trading on Wednesday. He says history is repeating itself here.
"Last August, it was my belief that markets were overreacting to limited information in an earnings report from a young company and pushing its price down too much. Today, I believe that the markets are overreacting again to limited news from an earnings report and pushing the price up too much."
Damordaran, who values Facebook at about $27.65 a share, says he bought last August when the stock was trading below his estimate of its intrinsic value. For those who don't own it, he doesn't recommend selling short, though, as that momentum game that went against Facebook last year could reverse. Some investors could be "drawn into the stock if it crests the $38 IPO price, though there is really no economic or value significance around the number." He says he'll keep tracking Facebook because there's a good chance it could fall out of favor with investors and get back on his buy list.
Random reads: Say it ain't so Teresa and Joe. The Jersey couple who are facing tax fraud charges, could soon lose their reality show.
Chilling. A 1983 speech the Queen was ready to make in the event of all-out nuclear war with Russia.
Equally chilling, former Goldman Sachs programmer Sergey Aleynikov tells Vanity Fair how the banking giant landed him in prison. Goldman was pouring cold water on his story two days ago.
This country could be the first to make marijuana legal.
Finally, we're being told. Why Florida is the craziest state .
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @bkollmeyer on Twitter.
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