Lenders and
Realtors know that relationships can sometimes complicate things, and the
Census Bureau tells us that about 18% of people 18 and older lived in
someone else's household, up from 16% in 2007, prior to the start of the
economic recession. Specifically, 41 million adults in 2011 lived in a
household in which they were neither the householder, the householder's spouse,
nor the householder's cohabiting partner. Between 2010 and 2011, the number of
these additional adults increased by almost 2 million.
The fabled
conforming loan amounts were announced by "Frannie" yesterday, with
both agencies leaving them unchanged. But if you want proof, here is the site
from their conservator, the FHFA.
Stable or rising property values are key to secondary marketing confidence by
investors in residential (or commercial) loans. For years the press has talked about
the housing crisis, about how property values are falling, and about how
countless borrowers are underwater on their homes, owing more than the house is
worth. But is this cycle coming to an end? The Wall Street Journal
recently reported that new household formulation is also the highest it has
been for six years. Not only do we have immigration, but the children are
finally moving out! These new households will increase demand for rentals
and home purchases for years to come, which will increase the tax base of state
and local governments. Here is the link.
We've also
seen a number of house price indicators (we seem to receive a handful every
darned week!) increasing.
The FHFA reported that U.S. house prices included in its study rose 1.1%
in the third quarter. "With significant growth in home prices during the
quarter and a modest inventory of homes available for sale, house price
movements in the third quarter were similar to what we observed in the
spring," said FHFA Principal Economist Andrew Leventis. "The past
year has seen consistent price increases, but a number of factors continue to
affect the recovery in home prices such as stagnant income growth, high
unemployment levels, lingering uncertainty about the macroeconomy, and the large
number of homes in the foreclosure pipeline." And we had this
headline: "Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month According to the S&P/Case-Shiller,"
with the 10 and 20 City Home Price Indexes both climbed 3% in September,
marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. The national composite was up
3.6% in the third quarter of 2012.
In October,
home prices and sales increased compared to 2011 levels, while inventory
remained a concern, RE/MAX revealed in a recent report. The company's
housing data is based on a survey of multiple listing service data in 52
metropolitan areas. The median sales price in October 2012 stood at $158,900, a
3.7 percent decrease from September but a 2.1 percent increase from October
2011. The year-over-year increase is the ninth straight month of annual gains.
And out of the 52 metro areas surveyed, RE/MAX reported 48 experienced yearly
price gains and 18 posted double-digit increases.
Zillow's October Real Estate Market Reports show that national home
values rose 1.1% from September to October to $155,400. This is the largest
monthly increase since August 2005 when home values rose 1.2% month-over-month.
October 2012 marks the 12th consecutive month of home value appreciation,
further evidence of a durable housing market recovery. On a year-over-year
basis, home values were up by 4.7% in October 2012 - a rate of annual
appreciation we haven't seen since September of 2006, before the peak of the
housing bubble. Not that any and all forecasts are "spot on,"
but the Zillow Home Value Forecast calls for 1.5% appreciation nationally
from October 2012 to October 2013. Most markets have already hit a bottom
and 40 out of the 256 markets covered are forecasted to experience home value
appreciation of 3% or higher, per Zillow's prediction.
Granted, not
all areas of the nation, nor areas of every state, are seeing this. But then
again, others are seeing even stronger appreciation, and fewer listings. Perhaps,
for the housing market, the worst is over. And even "the smartest guys
in the room" are getting into the game: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,
which survived the U.S. real estate collapse five years ago with the help of
derivative bets against subprime mortgages, is promoting the opposite trade to
clients as housing recovers. The firm, which teamed with four other dealers to
create the ABX indexes, benchmark contracts that offered investors a way to
protect against the risks of a crash, said in a Nov. 28 report on its top 10
market themes for 2013 that clients should buy some of the derivatives. Here's
the URL, well written by Bloomberg.
Turning to
the markets, no one is complaining about rates. Anyone who is should remember
that a dragging economy is something that can push rates lower - and do we
really want that?
Probably not, and besides the fiscal cliff something to look for in the coming
weeks is Federal Reserve officials facing critical decisions at their next
policy meeting (December 11-12). Analysts are pointing out that one of
the main discussion points is whether or not to continue the bond-buying
programs where the Fed has been purchasing mortgages backed securities (MBS)
and treasury bonds. In September the Fed committed to buying $40 billion a
month in MBS and that looks to continue into 2013 (hence the great rates for
home loans). The more pressing issue could be the $45 billion a month
program called Operation Twist (Fed buys long term treasuries and sells
short term treasuries) which is scheduled to end in December. The Fed is
running out of supply of current short term treasuries and in order to continue
the program would need to create new bank reserves (i.e. print new money -
something it is already doing by buying MBS). Critics think that this
could be inflationary while Fed officials believe they can manage the new
reserves without inflation.
Whether it is
extending flood insurance or dealing with the fiscal cliff, recently Congress
seems to always drag its feet. Word comes out today that there is no progress
on fiscal cliff talks. The markets will certainly let congress know the severity
of falling off. If they are successful and can come together with a plan,
don't look for this to happen until the last moment. One thing related to
residential MBS: gross supply in November has surged to $196 billion from $132
billion in October. This is the highest level since the spring of 2009 when
refinancing activity was spurred by lower mortgage rates resulting from the
Fed's $1.2 trillion in MBS purchases through QE1, as well as, programs enacted
by Congress following President Obama's election to help borrowers refinance in
the early stage of the housing/finance crisis. As Thomson Reuters points out,
the motivating factor in this month's supply surge was the rush by servicers to
close loans before a 10 basis points increase in guarantee fees takes effect on
Dec. 1. It took place, however, when refinance applications surged in late
September as mortgage rates fell to new lows in response to the Fed's QE3
program. "While November issuance was well above normal, which is roughly
$130 billion currently, issuance in December is expected to be below normal
as a result."
So yesterday
MBS prices were unchanged while 10-year notes were marked lower by 1 tick
(1/32) and closed at 1.62%. And today, the last day of November, we've had
Personal Income which was unchanged for October, and Personal Consumption
(Spending) which was -.2%, pretty much in line with expectations. Later we have
the Chicago PMI (Nov) at 9:45AM EST. In the early going the 10-yr is down to
1.60% and MBS prices are maybe .125 better.
The American
investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a
small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several
large yellow fin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of
his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.
The fisherman replied, only a little while.
The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer and catch more fish.
The Mexican said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs.
The American then asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your
time?"
The Mexican fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my
children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening
where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy
life."
The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should
spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the
proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would
have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you
would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You
would control the product, processing and distribution. You would need to leave
this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and
eventually NYC where you will run your expanding enterprise."
The Mexican fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?"
To which the American replied, "15-20 years."
"But
what then?"
The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is
right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and
become very rich, you would make millions."
"Millions...Then what?"
The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing
village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take
siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could
sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos."