Market update and reports

 

MBS  -12/32 @ 99.270      10 Yr Treasury  -13/32 @ 2.834       Dow +28 @ 15,942

 

	Stronger than expected labor market data caused a large decline in MBS this morning. The ADP forecast for November private sector job gains rose to 215K, above the consensus of 185K, and the October figures were revised higher by 54K. If Friday's Employment report shows similar strength, the Fed might begin to taper sooner. The Trade Deficit came in close to expectations. The Fed's Beige Book will be released at 2:00 et.   The Commerce Department says sales of new homes grew 25.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 444,000. That was the largest monthly percentage increase since May 1980. But it came after sales had fallen 6.6 percent in September to a 354,000 annual rate. And the pace was revised much lower than initially reported.   The ISM Non-manufacturing Index fell to 53.9 in November from 55.4 in October.
		Treasuries
4-Dec-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.06% 0.01% 6-Month T-Bill 0.10% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.13% 0.01% 2-Year Note 0.29% 0.01% 3-Year Note 0.57% 0.01% 5-Year Note 1.44% 0.04% 10-Year Note 2.83% 0.04% 30-Year Bond 3.88% 0.03%

 

Major Indices
4-Dec-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.963% 0.006% 1-Month LIBOR 0.170% 0.002% 6-Month LIBOR 0.345% 0.000% 12-Month LIBOR 0.577% 0.001% MTA Index 0.134% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Mortgage Rates
4-Dec-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.30% 0.03% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.29% 0.07% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.60% -0.01% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 2.94% -0.01%

 

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.35%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.40%

5/1 ARM -     2.93%

7/1 ARM   -   3.27%

10/1-ARM -  3.80%

 

Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Dec 02	Fed's Bernanke Speech
	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	54.7		51.8
	Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep)	-0.3%		0.6%
	Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct)	0.8%	0.4%	-0.3%
	ISM Prices Paid (Nov)	52.5	55.0	55.5
	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	57.3	55.0	56.4
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.105%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.08%
Dec 03	Redbook index (MoM) (Nov 24)			-0.5%
	Redbook index (YoY) (Nov 24)			3.8%
	ISM New York index (Nov)			59.3
	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Dec)		43.2	41.4
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.065%
	Total Vehicle Sales (Nov)		15.70M	15.23M
Dec 04	OPEC meeting
	MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 29)			-0.3%
	ADP Employment Change (Nov)		165K	130K
	Nonfarm Productivity (Q3)			1.8%
	Trade Balance (Oct)		$49.10B	$-41.78B
	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)		55.0	55.4
	New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)		0.427M	0.421M
	New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.432M	0.421M
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Nov 29)			2.953M
	Fed's Beige Book
Dec 05	Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Nov)			45.73K
	Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) Preliminar		2.9%	2.5%
	Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3) Preliminar		1.9%	0.6%
	Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 29)		323K	316K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov 22)			2.776M
	Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)		-1.0%	-0.1%
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 29)			-13B
Dec 06	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)		0.2%	0.1%
	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)			2.2%
	Average Weekly Hours (Nov)		34.5	34.4
	Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)		185K	204K
	Personal Income (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.5%
	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.1%
	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY) (Oct)			1.2%
	Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Oct)			0.1%
	Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
	Personal Spending (Oct)		0.4%	0.2%
	Unemployment Rate (Nov)		7.2%	7.3%
	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec) Preliminar		76.2	75.1
	Consumer Credit Change (Oct)		$13.90B	$13.74B
	Fed's Evans Speech