market update and december reports

MBS  Par @ 99.286      10 Yr Treasury  -5/32 @ 2.854       Dow -39 @ 15,850

 

	There was little reaction to today's stronger than expected economic data. Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 298K, below the consensus of 330K. Third quarter GDP was revised substantially higher to 3.6% from 2.8%, well above the consensus of 3.0%. This was the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2012. Most of the increase was due to a larger buildup of inventories, though, which means that production was pulled forward into the third quarter from future quarters. Estimates for fourth quarter GDP likely will be lowered. As expected, the ECB made no change in rates.. Factory Orders will be released at 10:00 et. The November Employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 et.   Factory orders dropped 0.9 percent in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That followed a 1.8 percent increase in September.

 

 

 

 

Treasuries
5-Dec-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.05% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.09% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.12% 0.00% 2-Year Note 0.30% 0.01% 3-Year Note 0.60% 0.03% 5-Year Note 1.48% 0.04% 10-Year Note 2.86% 0.03% 30-Year Bond 3.91% 0.01%

 

Major Indices
5-Dec-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.963% 0.006% 1-Month LIBOR 0.170% 0.001% 6-Month LIBOR 0.346% 0.001% 12-Month LIBOR 0.577% 0.000% MTA Index 0.134% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Mortgage Rates
5-Dec-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.30% 0.03% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.29% 0.07% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.60% -0.01% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 2.94% -0.01%

 

 

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.35%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.40%

5/1 ARM -     2.93%

7/1 ARM   -   3.27%

10/1-ARM -  3.80%

 

Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Dec 02	Fed's Bernanke Speech
	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	54.7		51.8
	Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep)	-0.3%		0.6%
	Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct)	0.8%	0.4%	-0.3%
	ISM Prices Paid (Nov)	52.5	55.0	55.5
	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	57.3	55.0	56.4
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.105%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.08%
Dec 03	Redbook index (MoM) (Nov 24)			-0.5%
	Redbook index (YoY) (Nov 24)			3.8%
	ISM New York index (Nov)			59.3
	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Dec)		43.2	41.4
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.065%
	Total Vehicle Sales (Nov)		15.70M	15.23M
Dec 04	OPEC meeting
	MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 29)			-0.3%
	ADP Employment Change (Nov)		165K	130K
	Nonfarm Productivity (Q3)			1.8%
	Trade Balance (Oct)		$49.10B	$-41.78B
	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)		55.0	55.4
	New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)		0.427M	0.421M
	New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.432M	0.421M
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Nov 29)			2.953M
	Fed's Beige Book
Dec 05	Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Nov)			45.73K
	Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) Preliminar		2.9%	2.5%
	Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3) Preliminar		1.9%	0.6%
	Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 29)		323K	316K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov 22)			2.776M
	Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)		-1.0%	-0.1%
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Nov 29)			-13B
Dec 06	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)		0.2%	0.1%
	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)			2.2%
	Average Weekly Hours (Nov)		34.5	34.4
	Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)		185K	204K
	Personal Income (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.5%
	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.1%
	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY) (Oct)			1.2%
	Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Oct)			0.1%
	Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
	Personal Spending (Oct)		0.4%	0.2%
	Unemployment Rate (Nov)		7.2%	7.3%
	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec) Preliminar		76.2	75.1
	Consumer Credit Change (Oct)		$13.90B	$13.74B
	Fed's Evans Speech