Market update and upcoming reports

MBS  par @ 103.120     10 Yr Treasury  +1/32 @ 2.875       Dow +17 @ 15,902

 

It has been a quiet morning. November CPI inflation was unchanged from October, matching the consensus, and it was just 1.2% higher than one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, slightly above the consensus. Core CPI was 1.7% higher than one year ago. No more economic data will be released today. The results from the 2-yr Treasury auction will come out around 1:00 et. The highly anticipated Fed statement will be released tomorrow at 2:00 et.

 

 

Treasuries
17-Dec-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.07% 0.01% 6-Month T-Bill 0.09% 0.01% 1-Year T-Bill 0.13% -0.01% 2-Year Note 0.33% 0.00% 3-Year Note 0.66% -0.01% 5-Year Note 1.51% -0.02% 10-Year Note 2.87% 0.00% 30-Year Bond 3.90% 0.02%

 

Major Indices
17-Dec-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.963% 0.006% 1-Month LIBOR 0.170% 0.005% 6-Month LIBOR 0.348% 0.003% 12-Month LIBOR 0.581% 0.001% MTA Index 0.134% -0.005% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Mortgage Rates
17-Dec-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 3.43% -0.04% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 4.42% -0.04% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.51% -0.08% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 2.94% -0.05%

 

 APOR (Changes Mondays)

30 Yr Fixed-  4.48%

15 Yr Fixed- 3.53%

5/1 ARM -     2.93%

7/1 ARM   -   3.26%

10/1-ARM -  3.78%

 

 

 

	Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Dec 16	Nonfarm Productivity (Q3)	3.0%	2.8%	1.8%
	Unit Labor Costs (Q3)	-1.4%	-1.3%	0.5%
	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)	0.98	4.75	-2.21
	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Preliminar	54.4	55.0	54.7
	Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Oct)	$35.4B		$31.3BRevised from $25.5B
	Total Net TIC Flows (Oct)	$194.9B		$-97.6BRevised from $-106.8B
	Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%Revised from -0.1%
	Capacity Utilization (Nov)	79.0%	78.4%	78.2%Revised from 78.1%
	3-Month Bill Auction			0.07%
	6-Month Bill Auction			0.095%
	2-Year Note Auction			0.3%
Dec 17	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)		1.3%	1.0%
	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov)		0.1%	-0.1%
	Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Nov)			234.88
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Nov)		0.1%	0.1%
	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Nov)		1.7%	1.7%
	Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Nov)		233.13	233.55
	Current Account (Q3)		$-100.30B	$-98.89B
	Redbook index (MoM) (Dec 8)			-1.5%
	Redbook index (YoY) (Dec 8)			2.6%
	NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)		55	54
	4-Week Bill Auction			0.025%
	5-Year Note Auction			1.34%
Dec 18	MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 13)			1%
	Building Permits (MoM) (Nov)			0.974M
	Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep)		0.91M
	Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov)		0.950M	0.891M
	Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct)		0.920M	0.891M
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Dec 13)			-10.585M
	7-Year Note Auction			2.106%
	Fed Interest Rate Decision			0.25%
	Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (Dec)			$40B
	Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (Dec)			$45B
	FOMC Economic Projections
	Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
Dec 19	Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)		334K	368K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 6)		2.780M	2.791M
	American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report (Nov)
	CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Nov)		0.6%	0.2%
	Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Nov)		-1.5%	-3.2%
	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)		5.03M	5.12M
	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Nov)		10.0	6.5
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Dec 13)			-81B
Dec 20	Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q3)			0.6%
	Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q3)			-0.1%
	Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3)		2.0%	0.6%
	Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)		3.6%	2.5%
	Kansas Fed manufacturing activity (Dec)			11