Market stats

MBS +18/32 @ 104.16    10 Yr Treasury  +20/32 @ 1.6930         DOW -135 @ 14470

 

It has been a volatile morning. MBS jumped following the release of the Employment report. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added just 88K jobs in March. The Unemployment Rate declined from 7.7% to 7.6%, which was lower than expected, and the lowest level since December 2008. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, was flat from last month, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Digging deeper, the small bit of good news is that the data from the prior two months was revised higher by 61K. This was far outweighed, however, by the bad news in the details of the household survey which is used to calculate the Unemployment Rate. The decline in the Unemployment Rate was entirely due to nearly 500K people exiting the labor force. According to this survey, the number of jobs declined by 206K. We want the Unemployment Rate to decline because more people get jobs and not due to a shrinking labor force. As a reminder, the headline figure for job gains comes from actual Nonfarm Payrolls data collected from large companies, while the Unemployment Rate is calculated based on survey results from households. In short, today's data was disappointing in nearly every area, which was positive for MBS prices. No more economic data will be released today.

 

Top of Form Treasuries
5-Apr-13 Last Change 3-Month T-Bill 0.06% 0.00% 6-Month T-Bill 0.09% 0.00% 1-Year T-Bill 0.13% -0.01% 2-Year Note 0.22% -0.01% 3-Year Note 0.34% -0.02% 5-Year Note 0.67% -0.03% 10-Year Note 1.69% -0.07% 30-Year Bond 2.85% -0.13%

 

Top of Form Major Indices
5-Apr-13 Last Change 11th District COFI 0.999% 0.037% 1-Month LIBOR 0.200% 0.000% 6-Month LIBOR 0.442% 0.000% 12-Month LIBOR 0.721% -0.002% MTA Index 0.174% -0.003% Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00% Federal Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00% Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00%

 

Top of Form Mortgage Rates
5-Apr-13 Last Change 15-Year Fixed Freddie 2.74% -0.02% 30-Year Fixed Freddie 3.54% -0.03% 1-Year ARM Freddie 2.63% 0.01% 5/1-Year ARM Freddie 2.65% -0.03% Bottom of Form

 

 

APOR

30 Yr Fixed- 3.54%

5/1 ARM -     2.65%

 

Economic Calendar

	Event	Actual	Cons.	Previous
Apr 01	Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	54.6	54.9	54.3
	Construction Spending (MoM) (Feb)	1.2%	1.0%	-2.1%
	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	51.3	54.1	54.2
	ISM Prices Paid (Mar)	54.5	59.8	61.5
	6-Month Bill Auction	0.105%		0.105%
	3-Month Bill Auction	0.075%		0.075%
Apr 02	Redbook index (YoY) (Mar 24)	3.5%		2.6%
	Redbook index (MoM) (Mar 24)	0.8%		0.6%
	ISM New York index (Mar)	51.2		58.8
	Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb)	3.0%	2.9%	-1.0%Revised from -2.0%
	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Apr)	46.2	46.1	42.2
	Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech
	Fed's Lockhart speech
	Total Vehicle Sales (Mar)	15.3M	15.3M
	Fed's Evans Speech
	MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 29)	-4.0%		7.7%
Apr 03	ADP Employment Change (Mar)	158K	200K	237KRevised from 198K
	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	54.4	55.8	56.0
	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Mar 29)	2.707M	1.800M	3.256M
	Fed's William Dudley speech
	Fed's Bullard speech
Apr 04	Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Mar)			55.356K
	Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 31)		350K	357K
	Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar 24)		3.05M	3.05M
	Fed's Evans Speech
	EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Mar 29)		-89B	-95B
	Fed's Bernanke Speech
	Fed's George Speech
Apr 05	Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)		200K	236K
	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.2%
	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar)			2.1%
	Average Weekly Hours (Mar)		34.5	34.5
	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		7.7%	7.7%
	Trade Balance (Feb)		$-44.60B	$-44.45B
	Consumer Credit Change (Feb)		$15.00B	$16.15B