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Need to Know
APRIL 16, 2013
7 gut checks before the stock
market's opening bell
By Shawn Langlois
Good
morning.
I escape for a few days on a bogey-riddled pilgrimage to the Old Course and this is what I come
back to?
The horrifying bombings in Boston are dominating the headlines this morning, as
they should, but there's also this nasty stock market to tend to. While
acknowledging it's not a priority in the grand scheme of things, that's
what we'll focus on in this space.
With gold spiraling to its "most oversold levels on record,"
Goldman Sachs, which reported its own quarterly results this morning, is
convinced there's more selling to come (more on that below). Meanwhile,
earnings will be piling up through the day as will economic data from the
housing and inflation front.
Even after yesterday's retreat, the Dow is still up 11% this year, though
investors are sweating its ability to cling to that level if a 43% jump in the fear gauge is any
indication. Despite all the question marks, premarket action is signalling
that the rebound that has often accompanied such down days during this bull
run is in play.
Key market gauges: After yesterday's brutal decline,
there's nowhere to go but up, right? OK, that's not even close to
true, but we are seeing somewhat of a bounce in Dow and
S&P futures. Read Indications .
Gold is up, but not nearly enough to recover from the epic meltdown of the past two
sessions, which saw the metal take its biggest hit in 30 years. Read why
Mark Dow wishes pain on the "charlatans and
hucksters" that have peddled this "deeply flawed
investment vehicle" on retail investors. Nevertheless, Cody
Willard says it's "time to buy gold, any way you can"
and Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture blog lays out 10 rules of goldbuggery .
The economy: Consumer price index data hits at 8:30 a.m.
and economists are forecasting a 0.1% monthly drop for March, or a 0.2%
gain when stripping out food and energy. That deceleration in prices is
something to keep an eye on. The inflation outlook will be discussed among
a wave of Fed speakers throughout the day, including New York Fed President
William Dudley and Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen.
The numbers don't stop there, with the Commerce Department releasing
housing starts for March and the Fed showing industrial production numbers
after that at 9:15 a.m. Read: Spotlight on the economy .
Earnings: Goldman Sachs headlines a crowded docket this
morning, joined by Coca-Cola , Johnson & Johnson and BlackRock
before the opening bell. The tech sector will be busy later in the
day as Wall Street chews on Intel and Yahoo after the close.
BlackRock was the first to post, and the money manager came in with a first-quarter profit that rose 10% and
topped Wall Street targets. Coke and Goldman followed up with strong
reports that sent shares of both up nicely in premarket action.
Say what you will, Goldman Sachs is an impressive machine for making money.
— Epicurean Dealmaker (@EpicureanDeal) April 16, 2013
Check out what analysts will be looking for in both Yahoo's and Intel's reports later in the day.
And here's a highlight reel slideshow of some of the
other big players in the technology sector ahead of their earnings.
The buzz: Sears Holding Corp.'s Kmart is still
drawing clicks on Google, and its "Ship
my pants" video just topped 9 million hits. It's not
helping the stock much though. Shares shed almost 7% during yesterday's
broad retreat and are down from a $68.77 annual high back in November.
On Market IQ, Theravance is the top trending ticker after yesterday's
19.4% rally, joined by National Financial Partners , Myriad Genetics
and Sprint Nextel , which rallied on the back of an unsolicited takeover bid from Dish
Network .
Gold and gold-related tickers, understandably, are garnering the most
attention on StockTwits, along with Yahoo, Coke and Goldman. Caterpillar
is also trending, with sentiment still heavily on the bearish side. Read Stocks to Watch .
The chart of the day: Charles Schwab issued a timely
(particularly after yesterday's drop) heads-up on Friday that served as an
omen for a spring pullback. "With hindsight being 20/20, investors
would had to have known to sell in April of the past three years (not quite
the traditional 'sell in May' mantra) after a nice start, while also
knowing to buy back in July, August, and June, respectively, to take
advantage of the gains seen during the rest of each year — much earlier
than the traditional fall time frame often cited as the best time to return
to the market," the analysts wrote.
The
call of the day: Goldman Sachs went bearish on gold last week and BOOM, the
shiny metal is in full-on meltdown mode. Now Goldman is subtly reminding us
they made that prescient call by announcing that it's lowering its stop to $1,400 an ounce
. The analysts said the most recent exchange-traded-fund holdings show
"acceleration in the liquidation of length, which points to a
broad-based sell-off extending beyond the futures markets with potential
more room to go."
Random reads: The wedding cross-dress, the kick to the
cameraman's groin, the tattoos, Carmen Electra --- all part of an elaborate cover for Dennis Rodman to
worm his way into North Korea's corridors of power.
John Paulson just lost almost a billion dollars . Don't worry,
he'll still be able to put food on his table. Rather, he'll still be able
to pay someone else to put food on his table.
The rogue Apple trade that brought down Rochedale Securities .
The Guardian has enlisted the help of the general public
with its GuardianWitness app that allows users to
post videos, pictures and text directly to the paper's editors.
Lastly, one Boston Globe columnist's take on the marathon bombings and one celebrity's trending Facebook reminder
.
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