7 gut checks before the open (this is last post for 8 days)

Need to Know APRIL 23, 2013 7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell By Shawn Langlois   Good morning. A one-way ticket to Mars has to be sounding pretty good to the unfortunate masses riding Apple stock like that guy on the bomb in "Dr. Strangelove." Maybe today will change all that. Perhaps Apple's report will surprise to the upside and help the woeful stock follow Netflix into the stratosphere. But the tech world is clearly girding for the worst-case scenario. The broader market, too, seems to be positioning itself for the inevitable rally-ender. Small-caps are underperforming larger-caps, Treasurys are beating junk and staples are smoking cyclicals. These charts  tell the story of a skittish market. Yes, as we've pointed out many times in this space, defensive sectors are driving market gains. If it feels different, it should. Typically, the risk-averse sectors are on the outside looking in, but that's not the case in this rally. The PowerShares S&P Low Volatility ETF  is up more than 15% since the beginning of the year, vs. a 9.7% gain on the S&P.  "Conservative investors are profiting at the expense of the risk takers," writes Michael Harris of the Price Action Lab blog . "Does this mean that eventually the spread will close in favor of the risk takers?" Good question. One that today might go a long way in answering considering the gravity of the Apple report and the searing advance that's in store for Netflix. Key market gauges: China's disappointing PMI sent shivers through Asian markets with the Shanghai Composite , off 2.6%, taking the worst of it. The Hang Seng Index  dropped 1.1%, while the Nikkei  fared better with a 0.3% decline. Read: Asia stocks trip over weak China data. Europe , with its own lackluster PMI numbers rolling in, didn't sweat weakness overseas. All the major index's in the region are moving up so far this morning, led by France's CAC 40  and Spain's IBEX 35 . Even Germany's DAX  shook off early declines to push nicely into the green despite a six-month low on its PMI reading . Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are rebounding nicely from earlier declines. Gold  is meandering lower after logging three-straight rebounding days of gains. See Indications . The economy: Data on new single-family home sales will hit at 10 a.m. Eastern, with economists looking for an annual rate of 421,000 in March, up from 411,000 the prior month. Lowly interest rates continue to spur demand even amid the frigid weather headwind. We'll also get the Federal Housing Finance Agency's home-price index numbers for February and the "flash" version of Markit's purchasing managers index for April. Read: Spotlight on the economy. Earnings on tap: Apple  is expected to report a profit of $9.98 a share on sales of $42.3 billion for the March quarter, that would be a bit lighter on the earnings side but an improvement on the top line. The stock gained ground yesterday and MarketWatch's Dan Gallagher says a miss may already be priced in . Before the world stops spinning for Apple, investors will have a chance to ruminate on some other notables throughout the morning, like Lockheed Martin , Travelers , and United Technologies , to name a few. The buzz: Twitter is the top story on Google's business page thanks to Anthony Weiner's return . His first tweet since his saucy self-portrait two years ago was a bit of a snoozer. Here's hoping we get more of Weiner circa 2011. keystothecity.uberflip.com/i/121474 — Anthony Weiner (@anthonyweiner) April 22, 2013 As far as tickers, Netflix  is the top trender on StockTwits after last night's ridiculous post-earnings rally . The stock surged some 24% in extended trading, adding to the 6.7% regular session pop. The binge-viewing strategy seems to be working as subscribers keep on flocking at a faster-than-expected pace. Cree  is drawing some pre-earnings attention, and sentiment is running bullish thanks to a chart that has technical analysts feeling confident. VMware , Tiffany  and AT&T  are also trending. The chart of the day: From our own slide show of 5 Apple charts , here's one to keep in mind, considering Apple says it plans to issue numbers closer to its guidance.  The company has beaten its own forecast by an average of 31% over the past two years. While shareholders can't complain (until recently), the days of obliterating forecasts, both within the company and from Wall Street, may be over. The call of the day: "In real terms, the market top of 1929 was not exceeded till 1960: 31 years," writes Seeking Alpha contributor Emmet Kodesh . "The situation today is far grimmer in being sustained by fictions and manipulation." Not exactly a bowl full of sugar-coated sunshine, he says we're heading toward "stagflation and global depression." Kodesh warned that the correction we're about to see won't have a V-bounce like the one in mid-2009. The kicker: "The controlling oligarchy is re-setting the macro structure and consolidating wealth to produce a fiercely extractive, maximally managed hi-tech feudalism." Random reads: Want to colonize (and eventually die on) Mars? This Dutch firm plans on making it happen BY 2023 and is accepting applications. The catch: It's a one-way ticket. Even worse, there'll be no water showers. Judging from the website, it appears 10 people have already signed up to take the plunge . Weetabix has halted production of Minis and Oatibix Bites after England's worst harvest in decades. And the Internets mourn. NOOOOO SOCIETY WILL CRUMBLE! Britain's disastrous wheat harvest halts production of Weetabix Minis and Oatibix Bites bit.ly/11CawuT — Alexander Rowland (@drapiroh) April 22, 2013 Sex is a way for men "to be aggressive and manly but also [uh] tender and vulnerable." The uncomfortable "uh" is mine. Read more on why experts think sex is more emotional for guys than it is for women . Cool or disturbing? You can order pizza without ever having to get out of your sweet video game chair . (h/t @BrianSozzi ) Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise  on Twitter. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: alanrussell@princetoncap.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. 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This next week I am going to take 8 days

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The Universe

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Churchill Club news great events

 

THU APR 25 An Open Forum Event: FUTURE OF WORK: LEVIE, LEVINE & ZINGALE WEIGH IN Huge infrastructure changes are underfoot as mobile, cloud, big data, and social technologies converge in the enterprise. Can this change fundamentally affect productivity and improve how work gets done? Learn more » TUE APR 30 Breakfast Club: GAMIFICATION OF EVERYTHING Looking ahead, as gaming converges with diverse markets from healthcare and fitness to travel, ecommerce, and more, where are the greatest opportunities for innovation and business growth? Don’t miss this candid and visionary conversation. Learn more » WED MAY 1 A Lunch Event: ENERGY CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE 21st CENTURY Join us for this lunch event at the Rosewood Sand Hill, with Shell Oil Company President Marvin Odum and Scenarios Expert Cho Khong in conversation with Forbes Publisher Rich Karlgaard. Learn more » THU MAY 9 Breakfast Club: NEW CROSS-INDUSTRY COLLABORATIONS: IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES A provocative San Francisco breakfast conversation about the growing trend of cross-industry collaboration with Simon Segars, incoming CEO of ARM, and James F. Moore, former Harvard Berkman Center Fellow, led by respected futurist Paul Saffo. Learn more » WED MAY 15 Breakfast Club: MASSIVE SENSORS & DATA Reid Hoffman of LinkedIn and Greylock Partners predicted last year on the Churchill Club stage that massive sensors and data will be a top 10 tech trend in the coming years. With sensors everywhere, from our cars and phones to roads and medical equipment, opportunities to collect data are endless. Combined with large scale analytics, new data driven business models are emerging, and are impacting healthcare, city planning, public transportation, crime prevention, power utilization, and local commerce. This panel of experts will weigh in on the implications of this trend and examine the areas of greatest opportunity for innovation and business growth.   THU MAY 23 A Premier Event: 15th ANNUAL TOP 10 TECH TRENDS What new trends will emerge in the next several years? Find out at one of the Churchill Club’s most anticipated events of the year: the 15th Annual Top 10 Tech Trends debate. Be sure to get your seat as we welcome some of the techno-industries’ leading (and most opinionated) luminaries as they evaluate predictions for the years ahead. Our distinguished panel will rate and debate the trends. And our usual live audience of Silicon Valley’s best and brightest—all with opinions of your own—will be asked to agree or disagree.

BECOME AN EVENT VOLUNTEER Stay informed and connected while giving back to the community. Volunteers receive one complimentary pass for every 3 programs they volunteer for. Please contact info (at) churchillclub.org for more information. VOLUNTEER»   VISIT OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Hear and watch this stellar panel share an updated, behind-the-scenes look at the magic of Silicon Valley. VIEW»   Software defined networks (SDN) are presently getting a lot of buzz. What is the potential; how can it best be tapped–and how soon? Listen to and view this spirited and thoughtful conversation. VIEW»   According to Edelman's influential Trust Barometer research, released this February: trust in business is slowly gaining ground. Hear the latest trends and insights from leading thinkers. VIEW»   JOIN OUR LINKEDIN GROUP Join our LinkedIn group to participate in or add your own discussions to bring the Churchill Club conversations online! STEVE BALLMER IN CONVERSATION WITH REID HOFFMAN ON FORA Watch this November 2012 program delivered to a packed house, with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and Reid Hoffman. Available on FORA.tv. Use code BALLMER to save 20%. VIEW»

 

FUTURE OF WORK: LEVIE, LEVINE & ZINGALE WEIGH IN April 25, 2013 SPEAKERS: Aaron Levie, CEO, Box Peter Levine, Partner, Andreessen Horowitz Tony Zingale, CEO, Jive Moderator: Ashlee Vance, Technology Writer, Bloomberg Businessweek Time: 6:30 PM Registration | 7:30 PM Program | 8:45 PM Program Concludes Location: Rosewood Sand Hill | Directions Huge infrastructure changes are underfoot as mobile, cloud, big data, and social technologies converge in the enterprise. Can this change fundamentally affect productivity and improve how work gets done? If so, why isn′t it happening faster? Has anyone yet cracked the code? Where are the biggest opportunities for innovation and economic growth, and what will be possible in 5 or 10 years that isn't possible today? Sponsors:   Advance Price: Member $73 | Nonmember $95 On-site Price: Member $98 | Nonmember $120 Corporate Members Corporate passes will be accepted for this event. We ask that if you register using corporate passes, please do so 72 business hours in advance. We thank you for your cooperation!  BACK TO TOP GAMIFICATION OF EVERYTHING April 30, 2013 SPEAKERS: Rajat Paharia, Founder & Chief Product Officer, Bunchball Patrick Salyer, CEO, Gigya Jim Whitehead, Chair, Computer Science Dept. UC Santa Cruz; Founder & President of the Society for the Advancement of the Science of Digital Games Moderator: David Fetherstonhaugh, Behavioral Economist, IDEO Time: 7:30 AM Registration & Continental Breakfast | 8:00 AM: Program | 9:00 AM Program Concludes Location: Accenture | Directions Bing Gordon of Kleiner Perkins predicted in 2012 that gamification, the idea of using game design and game mechanics to influence people’s behavior in non-entertainment contexts, will see explosive growth within five years. As digital natives increasingly multi-task, and as the social web creates geometric growth in posts, the next battle is for engagement. Looking ahead, as gaming converges with diverse markets from healthcare and fitness to travel, ecommerce, and more, where are the greatest opportunities for innovation and business growth? Don’t miss this candid and visionary conversation with the founder of a leading gamification company who is widely known as the “father of gamification,” the head of a prominent computer science department focusing on gamification, and CEO of a fast-growing social/gamification company. Sponsor:   Advance Price: Member $28 | Nonmember $48 On-site Price: Member $40 | Nonmember $60 Corporate Members Corporate passes will be accepted for this event. We ask that if you register using corporate passes, please do so 72 business hours in advance. We thank you for your cooperation!  BACK TO TOP LUNCH EVENT: ENERGY CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE 21st CENTURY May 1, 2013 SPEAKERS: Marvin Odum, President, Shell Oil Company Cho Khong, Chief Political Analyst and Scenarios Expert, Shell Moderator: Rich Karlgaard, Publisher, Forbes Time: 11:30 AM Registration | Noon: Lunch | 12:30 PM Program | 1:30 PM Program Concludes Location: Rosewood Sand Hill | Directions Join us for this lunch event at the Rosewood Sand Hill, with Shell Oil Company President Marvin Odum in conversation with Forbes Publisher Rich Karlgaard. Shell has recently released a new set of "scenarios" that take a deep look at challenges and opportunities for energy and environmental systems in the 21st century. This includes the critical connection among energy, water and food systems and the impact of growing global urbanization. The findings from these scenarios are particularly timely as global population heads toward 9 billion by 2050, hundreds of millions of people move out of poverty in emerging economies, and global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, alongside demand for energy. Scenarios expert Cho Khong will be on hand to contribute to the conversation. Don′t miss this fresh, candid discussion that is sure to give you new insights and inspiration. Sponsor:   Advance Price: Member $45 | Nonmember $65 On-site Price: Member $60 | Nonmember $80 Corporate Members Corporate passes will be accepted for this event. We ask that if you register using corporate passes, please do so 72 business hours in advance. We thank you for your cooperation!  BACK TO TOP NEW CROSS-INDUSTRY COLLABORATIONS: IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES May 9, 2013 SPEAKERS: Simon Segars, Incoming CEO, ARM James F. Moore, Former Harvard Berkman Center Fellow Moderator: Paul Saffo, Managing Director of Foresight, Discern Analytics Time: 7:30 AM Registration & Continental Breakfast | 8:00 AM: Program | 9:00 AM Program Concludes Location: Parc55 Wyndham | Directions A provocative San Francisco breakfast conversation about the growing trend of cross-industry collaboration, with Simon Segars, incoming CEO of ARM, and James F. Moore, former Harvard Berkman Center Fellow and expert in leadership and change in large-scale systems, led by respected futurist Paul Saffo. New multi-industry business ecosystems are forming in such diverse areas as telecom, transportation, travel, royalty cards, and financial services—to name but a few. How is this occurring? How do partners get their fair share of the value created? What’s the secret to collaborating in the competitive landscape? Can open insurgencies conquer established giants, and if so, how? Sponsor:     Reserved Table: Racepoint Group   Advance Price: Member $35 | Nonmember $55 On-site Price: Member $55 | Nonmember $75 Corporate Members Corporate passes will be accepted for this event. We ask that if you register using corporate passes, please do so 72 business hours in advance. We thank you for your cooperation!  BACK TO TOP Churchill Club Prime Minister Plus Members     REGISTER: click www.churchillclub.org EMAIL: info@churchillclub.org If you experience any problems in registering, please email info@churchillclub.org Unsubscribe from Churchill Club Email Alerts Manage your email profile here Has your contact information changed? Be sure to update your profile online, via phone 408.265.0130 or info@churchillclub.org (name, address, phone, and company info) to ensure proper delivery of receipts, and correct notation on your name badge at Churchill Club events. Churchill Club | 3150 Almaden Expy # 214 | San Jose, CA 95118-1253 | +1 408.265.0130