Tuesday, March 26, 2013

6 Gut checks before market's opening bell


 

Need to Know

MARCH 26, 2013

6 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell


By Shawn Langlois

 

Need to Know
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Reuters

Good morning.

Assuming they didn't get out of this mess whole already, wealthy Russians might want to take what's left of their deposits after a potential 40% heist in Cyprus and invest it in their home country. That's if today's "call of the day" is on point.

Meanwhile, the U.S. market, despite a recent hiccup or two, has shown a knack for ignoring the noise when it has higher highs on its mind. So, pushing past euro-zone hand-wringing in the Mediterranean and the "child in a candy shop" over in North Korea , stocks are rising premarket. Then again, they started off that way yesterday, too, until they crapped out.

We've seen this kind of performance on the S&P before. In fact, if you stack this year's chart up against last year's , you'll see a startling similarity. And you might also be inclined to raise some cash and scamper to the sidelines.

Key market gauges: European stocks  are struggling to buck their three-day losing streak after Asia  closed mostly lower. Futures on the Dow  and the S&P  are pointing to a higher open even as North Korea points its nukes in our direction. Check out Indications .

While most global markets are showing some resiliency this morning, there's a beatdown happening in Greece, where the ATHEX Composite  is getting crushed by almost 5%. Read about how Citi could benefit from Cyprus .

The economy: A surge in demand for large commercial jets drove a 5.7% gain in February for orders of durable goods, even as orders fell 0.5%, excluding transportation. Economists had expected orders to climb 4.6% overall, on the back of a rebound in bookings for Boeing  jets. Drill into the numbers .

Later, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices for January will be released, our first look at how 2013 is faring following a 6.8% improvement in 2012. Then, the Commerce Department will issue new home sales for February, which might be lower than January but still markedly higher from a year ago.  Read: Spotlight on the economy .

The buzz: Best Buy  is leading the way on StockTwits. More on that in the "chart of the day" gut check. Starbucks  is also high on the top-trending list as investors debate CEO Howard Schultz's love-it-or-leave it gambit in support of his pro-gay marriage stance. Turns out more and more senators are coming to that conclusion , too. I'll drink a latte to that. Make it a vente.

Tesla joins Best Buy and Starbucks among the most-discussed tickers after founder Elon Musk tweeted about a "really exciting" upcoming announcement . Rounding out the buzzy list are Randgold Resources , Visa  and Netflix , which could be facing more competition , this time from chipmaking giant Intel  of all places, says ACInvestor Blog .

On Market IQ, top tickers include Stereotaxis , rallying hard yesterday on regulatory approval , and Apollo Group , which gained ground on an earnings beat . United Therapeutics  is still trending this morning after the stock was punished on Monday by an FDA rejection .

Keep an eye on EBay  this week as industry analysts descend on the company's headquarters Thursday for the first time since 2011 . They'll be looking for guidance on revenue, earnings and operating targets for the next three years, as well as more details on its major sources of growth.

Yahoo  has remained in the spotlight this week, not so much because it bought Summly, but more because of the kid who sold it .

The chart of the day: Best Buy has been on a tear this year, with its stock doubling and holding strong even as the market has wavered in recent sessions. But there's reason to believe the bullish trend is about to turn, according to Trend Exhaustion's Tony Kau, who gave the stock the highest sell rating possible . Backing that call up, here's a chart from nobullshytrader , which depicts a "nice double top rejection."

TradingView.com

The call of the day: Simple. Buy Russia. That's what Morgan Stanley analyst Ronan Carr is telling investors. He said the only time Russian equities have been this cheap relative to emerging markets is back in 2008. Two ways to gain broad exposure to the region are the Market Vectors Russia ETF  and the iShares MSCI Russia Capped Index Fund . Both are down more than 10% over the past year. Here are the seven reasons why Carr says it's time to consider the region:

  • Better macro fundamentals and resilience to shocks.
  • Governance and political risk are more than fairly discounted and may be improving at the margin.
  • Structural reforms – glass half full. We see modest progress, with the potential for more.
  • The energy sector's deep discount fully reflects the challenges. Russia has de-rated 27% versus crude oil and we see some potentially positive catalysts.
  • Russia is an attractive dividend yield play with a trailing 3.7% DY and a very low payout ratio (19%).
  • Global growth uplift in the second half of 2013 is a boon to Russia and lead indicators suggest earnings per share growth has bottomed.
  • Domestic growth, inflation and rates are turning more supportive.

"We have some tactical concerns (elevated sentiment, Cyprus) but expect the macro backdrop to remain positive for global equities on a medium- to longer-term view," he wrote. "We see significant outperformance potential for Russia in that context."

Random reads: Benefits of being a dwarf include surviving the Holocaust . Benefits of being a celebrity don't include getting away with wearing gun-shaped heals  on a plane.

1) Cyprus 2) North Korea 3) .... ? Perhaps the release of Breaking Bad spoilers is the third -- and most devastating -- leg in this month's flaming global crises rule of three. Please, McAfee, don't ruin my show, pleads Skinny Pete .

Go Catholicism! Francisco University drops health care in a preemptive strike against birth control. Didn't Amanda Knox, who is back in the news , go to a Catholic school?

I prefer the flawed, choked-up Tiger to the world beater .

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